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"Electric utilities Econometric models."
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Modeling Macro-Critical Energy Sectors in Low-Income Countries: A General Framework and an Application to Côte d'Ivoire
This paper proposes a general framework for monitoring macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries, defined as consisting of the three subsectors of crude oil and natural gas production, refinery, and electricity production. It aims to derive consistent information on physical and financial flows in the sector, including on interlinkages between the subsectors. It then applies this framework to Côte d'Ivoire. While being an important source of growth, the Ivoirien energy sector is found to have important shortcomings, in particular as regards transparency, efficiency and contribution to fiscal revenue. Among the key problems are partially intransparent production sharing arrangements for hydrocarbon production, price distortions for natural gas, administered prices for refined petroleum products, underfunding and lack of investment in the electricity sector, and inefficient government subsidies in the latter two subsectors.
eBook
Geographies of Knowledge and Imagination in 19th Century Philological Research on Northern Europe
Comparative philology was one of the most prolific fields of knowledge in the humanities during the 19th century. Based on the discovery of the Indo-European language family, it seemed to admit the reconstruction of a common history of European languages, and even mythologies, literatures, and people. However, it also represented a way to establish geographies of belonging and difference in the context of 19th century nation-building and identity politics. In spite of a widely acknowledged consensus about the principles and methods of comparative philology, the results depended on local conditions and practices. If Scandinavians were considered to be Germanic or not, for example, was up to identity politics that differed in Berlin, Strasbourg, Copenhagen and Paris. The contributors here elaborate these dynamics through analyses of the changing and conflicting versions of imaginative geographies that the actors of comparative philology evoked by using Scandinavian literatures and cultures. They also show how these seemingly delocalized scientific models depended on ever-different local needs and practices. Through this, the book represents the first distinctly transnational dynamic geography and history of the philological knowledge of the North - not only as a history of a scientific discourse, but also as a result of doing and performing scientific work.
eBook
An Econometric Assessment of Electricity Demand in the United States Using Utility-specific Panel Data and the Impact of Retail Competition on Prices
This paper uses a panel data of 72 U.S. electricity distribution companies during the period 1972–2009 to estimate structural demand and reduced-form price models. I find the own-price and income elasticity of demand for residential, commercial, and industrial customers that are generally consistent with the published economics literature. While static models work well for residential demand, dynamic models are more appropriate for the larger customer classes who require more time to adjust. Conditioning on the regressors, I find that residential and commercial electricity demand has been increasing slowly while industrial electricity demand and deflated electricity prices have been decreasing. In all price models I find that total factor productivity is consistently the most significant explanatory factor with a 1% increase in total factor productivity resulting in a reduction in deflated electricity prices ranging between 0.05% and 0.30%, depending on the model. Lastly, I find that retail electricity competition is associated with lower deflated electricity prices with the mean total impact being −4.3%, −8.2% and −11.1% for residential, commercial and industrial customers, respectively and with the impact diminishing over the sample period for residential customers, remaining relatively constant for commercial customers and increasing for industrial customers.
Journal Article
Power to Choose? An Analysis of Consumer Inertia in the Residential Electricity Market
Many jurisdictions around the world have deregulated utilities and opened retail markets to competition. However, inertial decision making can diminish consumer benefits of retail competition. Using household-level data from the Texas residential electricity market, we document evidence of consumer inertia. We estimate an econometric model of retail choice to measure two sources of inertia: search frictions/inattention and a brand advantage that consumers afford the incumbent. We find that households rarely search for alternative retailers, and when they do search, households attach a brand advantage to the incumbent. Counterfactual experiments show that low-cost information interventions can notably increase consumer surplus.
Journal Article
Definition of Regulatory Targets for Electricity Non-Technical Losses: Proposition of an Automatic Model-Selection Technique for Panel Data Regressions
Non-technical losses (NTLs) are one of the main problems that electricity distribution utilities face in developing regions such as Latin America, the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Particularly in Brazil, based on the socioeconomic and market variables concerning all the distribution utilities, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) has formulated several specifications of econometric models for panel data with random effects, all aimed at determining an index that reflects the difficulty of combating NTLs according to the intrinsic characteristics of each distribution area. Nevertheless, given the exhaustive search for combinations of explanatory variables and the complexity inherent to defining regulatory NTL targets, this process still requires the evaluation of many models through hypothesis and goodness-of-fit tests. In this regard, this article proposes an automatic model-selection technique for panel data regressions to better assist the Agency in establishing NTL regulatory targets for the distribution of utilities in this country. The proposed technique was applied to panel data containing annual observations from 62 Brazilian electricity distribution utilities from 2007 to 2017, thus generating 1,097,789 models associated with the regression types in the panel data. The main results are three selected models that showed more adherence to the actual capacity of Brazilian distribution utilities to reduce their NTLs.
Journal Article
Definition of Regulatory Targets for Electricity Default Rate in Brazil: Proposition of a Fuzzy Inference-Based Model
The current electricity default rates in continental countries, such as Brazil, pose risks to the economic stability and investment capabilities of distribution utilities. This situation results in higher electricity tariffs for regular customers. From a regulatory perspective, the key issue regarding this challenge is devising incentive mechanisms that reward distribution utilities for their operational and investment choices, aiming to mitigate or decrease electricity non-payment rates and avoid tariff increases for regular customers. Despite adhering to the principles of incentive regulation, the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) uses a methodological approach to define regulatory targets for electricity defaults tied to econometric models developed to determine targets to combat electricity non-technical losses (NTLs). This methodology has been widely criticized by electricity distribution utilities and academics because it includes many ad hoc steps and fails to consider the components that capture the specificities and heterogeneity of distribution utilities. This study proposes a fuzzy inference-based model for defining regulatory default targets built independently of the current methodological approach adopted by ANEEL and aligned with the principles of incentive regulation. An empirical study focusing on the residential class of electricity consumption demonstrated that it is possible to adopt a specific methodology for determining regulatory default targets and that the fuzzy inference approach can meet the necessary premises to ensure that the principles of incentive regulation and the establishment of regulatory targets are consistent with the reality of each electricity distribution utility.
Journal Article
Estimating the Drivers of the Cost of Saved Electricity in Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs
Energy efficiency programs funded by utility customers provide an electricity resource in most U.S. states, but their scale and cost of saving electricity varies significantly by state. In this paper, we explore the drivers of the cost of saved electricity in these programs with an econometric model and nearly a decade of data reported by efficiency program administrators. We found strong evidence for economies of scale and weak evidence for diseconomies of scale, which suggests that states with low levels of efficiency savings relative to retail sales can increase the size of their efficiency programs without large increases to the cost of saved electricity. We discuss examples of energy efficiency forecasting and potential modeling in light our econometric analysis and identify methodological improvements relevant to utilities and grid operators. This paper provides insights into the economics of customer-funded efficiency programs that will support regulators, utilities, and policymakers to utilize energy efficiency as a resource.
Journal Article
Optimizing Trading Decisions for Hydro Storage Systems Using Approximate Dual Dynamic Programming
We propose a new approach to optimize operations of hydro storage systems with multiple connected reservoirs whose operators participate in wholesale electricity markets. Our formulation integrates short-term intraday with long-term interday decisions. The intraday problem considers bidding decisions as well as storage operation during the day and is formulated as a stochastic program. The interday problem is modeled as a Markov decision process of managing storage operation over time, for which we propose integrating stochastic dual dynamic programming with approximate dynamic programming. We show that the approximate solution converges toward an upper bound of the optimal solution. To demonstrate the efficiency of the solution approach, we fit an econometric model to actual price and inflow data and apply the approach to a case study of an existing hydro storage system. Our results indicate that the approach is tractable for a real-world application and that the gap between theoretical upper and a simulated lower bound decreases sufficiently fast.
Journal Article
Spatial Effects of Wind Generation and Its Implication for Wind Farm Investment Decisions in New Zealand
Spill-over effects on electricity nodal prices associated with increased wind generation have not been examined in the literature. To examine these effects, we use spatial econometric models to estimate the direct and indirect effects of wind generation on nodal wholesale electricity prices. Spatial econometric models allow us to provide quantitative estimates of spill-over magnitudes and statistical tests for significance. Results show negative and significant effects are associated with increases in wind penetration, and the effect is stronger during peak hours and weaker during off-peak hours. Simulation results demonstrate net savings of NZ$8 million per MW of additional wind capacity installed at the CNI2 wind site. The findings provide valuable information on the evaluation of wind farm development in terms of site location, wholesale prices, and financial feasibility. Our approach also contributes to forecasting location specific wholesale electricity prices, and provides a better understanding of the implications of locating wind sites.
Journal Article