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Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility
The paper develops a method for producing current quarter forecasts of gross domestic product growth with a (possibly large) range of available within-the-quarter monthly observations of economic indicators, such as employment and industrial production, and financial indicators, such as stock prices and interest rates. In light of existing evidence of time variation in the variances of shocks to gross domestic product, we consider versions of the model with both constant variances and stochastic volatility. We use Bayesian methods to estimate the model, to facilitate providing shrinkage on the (possibly large) set of model parameters and conveniently generate predictive densities. We provide results on the accuracy of nowcasts of realtime gross domestic product growth in the USA from 1985 through 2011. In terms of point forecasts, our proposal improves significantly on auto-regressive models and performs comparably with survey forecasts. In addition, it provides reliable density forecasts, for which the stochastic volatility specification is quite useful.
Journal Article
Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth
We set out a model to compute short-term forecasts of the euro area GDP growth in real time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time dataset that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. With this dataset we show that our simple factor model algorithm, which uses an easy-to-replicate methodology, is able to forecast the euro area GDP growth as well as professional forecasters who can combine the best forecasting tools with the possibility of incorporating their own judgement. In this context, we provide examples showing how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty.
Journal Article
The rise of the robots : technology and the threat of mass unemployment
Intelligent algorithms are already well on their way to making white collar jobs obsolete: travel agents, data-analysts, and paralegals are currently in the firing line. In the near future, doctors, taxi-drivers and ironically even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by 'robots'. Without a radical reassessment of our economic and political structures, we risk the very implosion of the capitalist economy itself ... In The Rise of the Robots, technology expert Martin Ford systematically outlines the achievements of artificial intelligence and uses a wealth of economic data to illustrate the terrifying societal implications. From health and education to finance and technology, his warning is stark-all jobs that are on some level routine are likely to eventually be automated, resulting in the death of traditional careers and a hollowed-out middle class. The robots are coming and we have to decide-now-whether the future will bring prosperity or catastrophe.
Where are all the good jobs going?
Deindustrialization in the United States has triggered record-setting joblessness in manufacturing centers from Detroit to Baltimore. At the same time, global competition and technological change have actually stimulated both new businesses and new jobs. The jury is still out, however, on how many of these positions represent a significant source of long-term job quality and security. The book addresses the most pressing questions for today's workers: whether the U.S. labor market can still produce jobs with good pay and benefits for the majority of workers and whether these jobs can remain stable over time. What constitutes a 'good' job, who gets them, and are they becoming more or less secure? The book examines U.S. job quality and volatility from the perspectives of both workers and employers. The authors analyze the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau, and the book covers data for twelve states during twelve years, 1992-2003, resulting in an unprecedented examination of workers and firms in several industries over time. Counter to conventional wisdom, the authors find that good jobs are not disappearing, but their character and location have changed. The market produces fewer good jobs in manufacturing and more in professional services and finance. Not surprisingly, the best jobs with the highest pay still go to the most educated workers. The most vulnerable workers - older, low-income, and low-skilled - work in the most insecure environments where they can be easily downsized or displaced by a fickle labor market. A higher federal minimum wage and increased unionization can contribute to the creation of well paying jobs. So can economic strategies that help smaller metropolitan areas support new businesses. These efforts, however, must function in tandem with policies that prepare workers for available positions, such as improving general educational attainment and providing career education. The book makes clear that future policies will need to address not only how to produce good jobs but how to produce good workers. This cohesive study takes the necessary first steps with a sensible approach to the needs of workers and the firms that hire them. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) \".
eBook
The robot in the next cubicle : how to adapt and succeed in the automation age
\"It's called the Fourth Industrial Revolution--a revolution fueled by analytics and technology--that consists of data-driven smart products, services, entertainment, and new jobs. Economist and data scientist Larry Boyer lays out the wealth of exciting possibilities this revolution brings as well as the serious concerns about its disruptive impact on the lives of average Americans. Most important, he shows readers how to navigate this sea of change, pointing to strategies that will give businesses and individuals the best chance to succeed and providing a roadmap to thriving in this new economy. Boyer describes how future workers may have to think of themselves as entrepreneurs, marketing their special talents as valuable skills that machines cannot do. This will be especially important in the coming employment climate, when full-time jobs are likely to decrease and industries move toward contract-based employment. He provides guidelines for identifying your individual talents and pursuing the training that will make you stand out. He also shows you how to promote your personal brand to give more exposure to your unique skills. Whether we like it or not, automation will soon transform the work place and employment prospects. This book will show you how to look for and take advantage of the opportunities that this revolution presents\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Digital Work and Personal Data Protection
This book gathers contributions related to the most pressing problems and challenges that new information and communications technologies (ICT) and digital platforms introduce into the labour market, and the impact they have on the way that people work, their rights and even their health and dignity. In addition, there are also chapters studying personal data protection, which is currently a topic of maximum interest due to the New European Regulation about it.The contributors here are drawn from around the world, with several countries represented, such as Portugal, Spain, Italy, Brazil, Australia and Venezuela. The book will appeal lawyers, legal and human resources experts, economists, judges, academics and staff from trade unions, and employers' representation.The volume features insights and contributions in different languages, with chapters in Spanish (12), English (6) and Portuguese (4).
eBook
The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market with Comments and Discussion
This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models. Our model's forecast has a root-mean-squared error about 30 percent below that of the next-best forecast in the near term and performs especially well surrounding large recessions and cyclical turning points. Further, because our model uses information on labor force flows that is likely not incorporated by other forecasts, a combined forecast including our model's forecast and the SPF forecast yields an improvement over the latter alone of about 35 percent for current-quarter forecasts, and 15 percent for next-quarter forecasts, as well as improvements at longer horizons.
Journal Article
Challenging Future Practice Possibilities
'What might the futures of practice be like?' is far from a straightforward question. Emphasising 'the' before the word future, implies one future. But futures thinkers have identified a range of futures that people think about. In this book we reflect on possible, probable, and preferable futures in relation to practice and work. Readers are invited to consider how their own engagement in shaping possible futures will support ways of working that they deem preferable, even those they can hardly imagine. Challenging Future Practice Possibilities also examines influences that are maintaining the status quo and others that are pushing interest-driven change. Authors consider the major challenges that practice and practitioners face today such as wicked problems, fears for the future and complex demands and opportunities posed by the digital revolution. A number of examples of future-oriented work directions such as protean careers and artificial intelligence enhancing or even replacing human workforces, are considered along with concerns like the vulnerability of many work situations and workers. In some cases workers and employers alike are unprepared for these challenges, while others see adapting to these situations as yet another pathway of practice futures evolution. [Publisher summary]
eBook