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We present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation, version 2 (MSWEP V2), a gridded precipitation P dataset spanning 1979–2017. MSWEP V2 is unique in several aspects: i) full global coverage (all land and oceans); ii) high spatial (0.1°) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution; iii) optimal merging of P estimates based on gauges [WorldClim, Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D), Global Summary of the Day (GSOD), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), and others], satellites [Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), Gridded Satellite (GridSat), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT)], and reanalyses [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55)]; iv) distributional bias corrections, mainly to improve the P frequency; v) correction of systematic terrestrial P biases using river discharge Q observations from 13,762 stations across the globe; vi) incorporation of daily observations from 76,747 gauges worldwide; and vii) correction for regional differences in gauge reporting times. MSWEP V2 compares substantially better with Stage IV gauge–radar P data than other state-of-the-art P datasets for the United States, demonstrating the effectiveness of the MSWEP V2 methodology. Global comparisons suggest that MSWEP V2 exhibits more realistic spatial patterns in mean, magnitude, and frequency. Long-term mean P estimates for the global, land, and ocean domains based on MSWEP V2 are 955, 781, and 1,025 mm yr−1, respectively. Other P datasets consistently underestimate P amounts in mountainous regions. Using MSWEP V2, P was estimated to occur 15.5%, 12.3%, and 16.9% of the time on average for the global, land, and ocean domains, respectively. MSWEP V2 provides unique opportunities to explore spatiotemporal variations in P, improve our understanding of hydrological processes and their parameterization, and enhance hydrological model performance.

Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite- and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0 % of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44–0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments (< 50 000 km2) across the globe. Specifically, we calibrated the simple conceptual hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) against daily Q observations with P from each of the different datasets. For the 1058 sparsely gauged catchments, representative of 83.9 % of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), MSWEP obtained a median calibration NSE of 0.52 vs. 0.29–0.39 for the other P datasets. MSWEP is available via http://www.gloh2o.org.

Precipitation is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, but it is challenging to estimate it over large scales from satellites and models. Here, we assessed the performance of six global and quasi-global high-resolution precipitation datasets (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations version 2.0 (CHIRPS), Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation version 2.80 (MSWEP), TerraClimate (TERRA), Climate Prediction Centre Unified version 1.0 (CPCU), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, hereafter PERCCDR) for hydrological modelling globally and quasi-globally. We forced the WBMsed global hydrological model with the precipitation datasets to simulate river discharge from 1983 to 2019 and evaluated the predicted discharge against 1825 hydrological stations worldwide, using a range of statistical methods. The results show large differences in the accuracy of discharge predictions when using different precipitation input datasets. Based on evaluation at annual, monthly, and daily timescales, MSWEP followed by ERA5 demonstrated a higher correlation (CC) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) than other datasets for more than 50 % of the stations, whilst ERA5 was the second-highest-performing dataset, and it showed the highest error and bias for about 20 % of the stations. PERCCDR is the least-well-performing dataset, with a bias of up to 99 % and a normalised root mean square error of up to 247 %. PERCCDR only show a higher KGE and CC than the other products for less than 10 % of the stations. Even though MSWEP provided the highest performance overall, our analysis reveals high spatial variability, meaning that it is important to consider other datasets in areas where MSWEP showed a lower performance. The results of this study provide guidance on the selection of precipitation datasets for modelling river discharge for a basin, region, or climatic zone as there is no single best precipitation dataset globally. Finally, the large discrepancy in the performance of the datasets in different parts of the world highlights the need to improve global precipitation data products.

A parametric statistical postprocessing method is presented that transforms raw (and frequently biased) ensemble forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) into reliable predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations. Exploratory analysis based on 12 years of reforecast data and ⅛° climatology-calibrated precipitation analyses shows that censored, shifted gamma distributions can well approximate the conditional distribution of observed precipitation accumulations given the ensemble forecasts. A nonhomogeneous regression model is set up to link the parameters of this distribution to ensemble statistics that summarize the mean and spread of predicted precipitation amounts within a certain neighborhood of the location of interest, and in addition the predicted mean of precipitable water. The proposed method is demonstrated with precipitation reforecasts over the conterminous United States using common metrics such as Brier skill scores and reliability diagrams. It yields probabilistic forecasts that are reliable, highly skillful, and sharper than the previously demonstrated analog procedure. In situations with limited predictability, increasing the size of the neighborhood within which ensemble forecasts are considered as predictors can further improve forecast skill. It is found, however, that even a parametric postprocessing approach crucially relies on the availability of a sufficiently large training dataset.

Forecast skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for precipitation accumulations over California is rather limited at subseasonal time scales, and the low signal-to-noise ratio makes it challenging to extract information that provides reliable probabilistic forecasts. A statistical postprocessing framework is proposed that uses an artificial neural network (ANN) to establish relationships between NWP ensemble forecast and gridded observed 7-day precipitation accumulations, and to model the increase or decrease of the probabilities for different precipitation categories relative to their climatological frequencies. Adding predictors with geographic information and location-specific normalization of forecast information permits the use of a single ANN for the entire forecast domain and thus reduces the risk of overfitting. In addition, a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework is proposed that extends the basic ANN and takes images of large-scale predictors as inputs that inform local increase or decrease of precipitation probabilities relative to climatology. Both methods are demonstrated with ECMWF ensemble reforecasts over California for lead times up to 4 weeks. They compare favorably with a state-of-the-art postprocessing technique developed for medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts, and their forecast skill relative to climatology is positive everywhere within the domain. The magnitude of skill, however, is low for week-3 and week-4, and suggests that additional sources of predictability need to be explored.

Droughts are among the most complex and devastating natural hazards globally. High-resolution datasets of drought metrics are essential for monitoring and quantifying the severity, duration, frequency, and spatial extent of droughts at regional and particularly local scales. However, current global drought indices are available only at a coarser spatial resolution (>50 km). To fill this gap, we developed four high-resolution (5 km) gridded drought records based on the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI) covering the period 1981–2022. These multi-scale (1–48 months) SPEI indices are computed based on monthly precipitation (P) from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS, version 2) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, version 2.8), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM, version 3.7a) and hourly Potential Evapotranspiration (hPET). We generated four SPEI records based on all possible combinations of P and PET datasets: CHIRPS_GLEAM, CHIRPS_hPET, MSWEP_GLEAM, and MSWEP_hPET. These drought records were evaluated globally and exhibited excellent agreement with observation-based estimates of SPEI, root zone soil moisture, and vegetation health indices. The newly developed high-resolution datasets provide more detailed local information and can be used to assess drought severity for particular periods and regions and to determine global, regional, and local trends, thereby supporting the development of site-specific adaptation measures. These datasets are publicly available at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA; https://doi.org/10.5285/ac43da11867243a1bb414e1637802dec) (Gebrechorkos et al., 2023).

Hamill et al. described a multimodel ensemble precipitation postprocessing algorithm that is used operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). This article describes further changes that produce improved, reliable, and skillful probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) for single or multimodel prediction systems. For multimodel systems, final probabilities are produced through the linear combination of PQPFs from the constituent models. The new methodology is applied to each prediction system. Prior to adjustment of the forecasts, parametric cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of model and analyzed climatologies are generated using the previous 60 days’ forecasts and analyses and supplemental locations. The CDFs, which can be stored with minimal disk space, are then used for quantile mapping to correct state-dependent bias for each member. In this stage, the ensemble is also enlarged using a stencil of forecast values from the 5 × 5 surrounding grid points. Different weights and dressing distributions are assigned to the sorted, quantile-mapped members, with generally larger weights for outlying members and broader dressing distributions for members with heavier precipitation. Probability distributions are generated from the weighted sum of the dressing distributions. The NWS Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) global ensemble, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast data are postprocessed for April–June 2016. Single prediction system postprocessed forecasts are generally reliable and skillful. Multimodel PQPFs are roughly as skillful as the ECMWF system alone. Postprocessed guidance was generally more skillful than guidance using the Gamma distribution approach of Scheuerer and Hamill, with coefficients generated from data pooled across the United States.

This study evaluates a machine learning–based precipitation ensemble technique (MLPET) over three mountainous tropical regions. The technique, based on quantile regression forests, integrates global satellite precipitation datasets from CMORPH, PERSIANN, GSMaP (V6), and 3B42 (V7) and an atmospheric reanalysis precipitation product (EI_GPCC) with daily soil moisture, specific humidity, and terrain elevation datasets. The complex terrain study areas include the Peruvian and Colombian Andes in South America and the Blue Nile in East Africa. Evaluation is performed at a daily time scale and 0.25° spatial resolution based on 13 years (2000–12) of reference rainfall data derived from dense in situ rain gauge networks. The technique is evaluated using K-fold, separately in each region, and leave-one-region-out validation experiments. Comparison of MLPET with the individual satellite and reanalysis precipitation datasets used for the blending and the recent Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) global precipitation product exhibited improved systematic and random error statistics for all regions. In addition, it is shown that observations are encapsulated well within the ensemble envelope generated by the blending technique.

Hydrometeorological forecasting is crucial for managing water resources and mitigating the impacts of hydrological extremes. At sub-seasonal scales, readily available hydrometeorological forecast products often exhibit large uncertainties and insufficient accuracies to support decision-making. We propose a deep-learning-based modelling framework for sub-seasonal joint precipitation and streamflow ensemble forecasts for a lead time of up to 30 d. This is achieved by coupling (1) an ensemble of enhanced convolutional neural network (CNN) models with ResNet blocks and a specialized loss function for statistically downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation forecasts to (2) a hybrid hydrologic model integrating the conceptual Xin'anjiang model (XAJ) and the long short-term memory network (LSTM) for ensemble streamflow forecasting (XAJ-LSTM). Applying the modelling framework to the source region of the Yangtze River Basin, results indicate that the CNN-based downscaling model exhibits ∼34 % and ∼26 % less root mean squared error (RMSE) than the raw ECMWF forecasts and the quantile mapping (QM) forecasts, respectively, averaged over the 30 d lead time. Similarly, the CNN achieves approximately 6 % and 10 % lower RMSE than raw forecasts and QM for heavy precipitation events. Using these precipitation forecasts as meteorological forcing for the hybrid XAJ-LSTM hydrologic model, we found that forecasted streamflow and flood peaks driven by CNN-based precipitation forecasts have 16 %–33 % lower relative errors and 20 %–31 % lower RMSE compared to those driven by raw forecasts. However, the standalone XAJ model shows only marginal improvements with the same enhanced precipitation forecasts. This highlights the importance of understanding the effectiveness of the hydrologic model as part of the sub-seasonal hydrometeorological modelling chain. Our study is expected to provide implications for leveraging advanced AI techniques to enhance sub-seasonal hydrometeorological forecasting accuracy and operational efficiency for effective water resources management and disaster preparedness.

Recent studies show variations in precipitation‐gridded data set accuracy with changing geographical parameters. Ensemble precipitation products, combining diverse data sets, offer global‐scale effectiveness, but applying them to regional studies, particularly in small to medium‐sized sub‐basins, presents challenges in addressing precipitation dependence on specific geographical conditions. Here, we present a newly developed Clusters Based‐Minimum Error approach to assimilate different open‐source gridded precipitation data sets for forming an accurate precipitation product over small to medium‐sized hilly terrain basins, with limited precipitation gauges. This methodology generates the New Gridded Precipitation Data Set (NGPD) from 1991 to 2022 for the Upper Ganga Basin in the western Himalaya, covering approximately 22,292 km2. The study utilizes nine open‐source gridded precipitation data sets and 11 observed precipitation gauges, NGPD is evaluated through station‐wise, grid‐wise, and elevation‐wise analyses using statistical parameters, quantile‐quantile plots, daily coefficient of determination, Rainfall Anomaly Index, and seasonality/precipitation pattern analyses. Results demonstrate the superior performance of NGPD compared to other gridded precipitation sources across various evaluation metrics. Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Coefficient of determination (R2), and Root mean squared error (RMSE) range from 0.67 to 0.90, 0.73–0.93, and 4.4–10.69 mm/day, respectively, w.r.t 11 observed precipitation gauges. NGPD outperforms the widely used IMD data set in India, exhibiting a monthly scale improvement of 18.47% and 17.7% in average NSE and R2 values, respectively. Additionally, the methodology is also successfully applied to the Tamor Basin in Nepal, proving its reliability for various Himalayan regions. This approach reliably creates accurate gridded precipitation data sets for hilly sub‐basins, especially in Himalayan regions with limited station data. Key Points A cluster‐based data assimilation approach to develop accurate gridded precipitation data in the Himalayan basins Consideration of topographic and climatic parameters to identify homogenous rainfall clusters to incorporate precipitation change Multi‐level evaluation of the newly developed gridded precipitation w.r.t. observed and open sources global gridded precipitation data sets