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"Epidemics Brazil."
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SARS-CoV-2 IgG Seroprevalence among Blood Donors as a Monitor of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Brazil
During epidemics, data from different sources can provide information on varying aspects of the epidemic process. Serology-based epidemiologic surveys could be used to compose a consistent epidemic scenario. We assessed the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG in serum samples collected from 7,837 blood donors in 7 cities of Brazil during March-December 2020. Based on our results, we propose a modification in a compartmental model that uses reported number of SARS-CoV-2 cases and serology results from blood donors as inputs and delivers estimates of hidden variables, such as daily values of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates and cumulative incidence rate of reported and unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases. We concluded that the information about cumulative incidence of a disease in a city's population can be obtained by testing serum samples collected from blood donors. Our proposed method also can be extended to surveillance of other infectious diseases.
Journal Article
Detection of Rocio Virus SPH 34675 during Dengue Epidemics, Brazil, 2011–2013
Recent seroprevalence studies in animals detected Rocio virus in regions of Brazil, indicating risk for re-emergence of this pathogen. We identified Rocio virus RNA in samples from 2 human patients for whom dengue fever was clinically suspected but ruled out by laboratory findings. Testing for infrequent flavivirus infections should expedite diagnoses.
Journal Article
Ecologic, Geoclimatic, and Genomic Factors Modulating Plague Epidemics in Primary Natural Focus, Brazil
Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961-1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau's concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with the surrounding areas. We noted a seasonal effect on plague activity, and human cases linearly correlated with precipitation and rodent and flea Y. pestis positivity rates. Genomic characterization of Y. pestis strains revealed a foundational strain capable of evolving into distinct genetic variants, each linked to temporally and spatially constrained plague outbreaks. These data could identify risk areas and improve surveillance in other plague foci within the Caatinga biome.
Journal Article
Modelling and optimal control of multi strain epidemics, with application to COVID-19
Reinfection and multiple viral strains are among the latest challenges in the current COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, epidemic models often consider a single strain and perennial immunity. To bridge this gap, we present a new epidemic model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains and reinfection due to waning immunity. The model is general, applies to any viral disease and includes an optimal control formulation to seek a trade-off between the societal and economic costs of mitigation. We validate the model, with and without mitigation, in the light of the COVID-19 epidemic in England and in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The model can derive optimal mitigation strategies for any number of viral strains, whilst also evaluating the effect of distinct mitigation costs on the infection levels. The results show that relaxations in the mitigation measures cause a rapid increase in the number of cases, and therefore demand more restrictive measures in the future.
Journal Article
That futebol feeling : sport and play in Brazil's heartland
Futebol, or soccer for Americans, is the planet's spectator sport of choice. In the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, nestled in the country's southeastern heartland, futebol generates powerful, lifelong emotions. That Futebol Feeling captures the region's enthrallment with \"the beautiful game,\" and shows us how and why play is central to the human condition. David Faflik profiles members of the most celebrated local team, Clube Atlético Mineiro (CAM), as well as its passionate, never-say-die fans, to show how futebol and fandom shape their everyday lives and perspectives. He discovers bonds of work and play, as well as pride, identity, and community. Additionally, Faflik's analysis of Brazil's futebol culture reflects sports fandom worldwide. CAM stands as a symbol for a way of life in Minas Gerais, the birthplace of Pelé. Faflik interrogates what playing the game means to those who dedicate their lives to the sport. He writes, \"The feelings that football inspires are the best of me.\" That Futebol Feeling shares that special feeling with the rest of us.
eBook
Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review
The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak shows that pandemics and epidemics can seriously wreak havoc on supply chains (SC) around the globe. Humanitarian logistics literature has extensively studied epidemic impacts; however, there exists a research gap in understanding of pandemic impacts in commercial SCs. To progress in this direction, we present a systematic analysis of the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on SCs guided by a structured literature review that collated a unique set of publications. The literature review findings suggest that influenza was the most visible epidemic outbreak reported, and that optimization of resource allocation and distribution emerged as the most popular topic. The streamlining of the literature helps us to reveal several new research tensions and novel categorizations/classifications. Most centrally, we propose a framework for operations and supply chain management at the times of COVID-19 pandemic spanning six perspectives, i.e., adaptation, digitalization, preparedness, recovery, ripple effect, and sustainability. Utilizing the outcomes of our analysis, we tease out a series of open research questions that would not be observed otherwise. Our study also emphasizes the need and offers directions to advance the literature on the impacts of the epidemic outbreaks on SCs framing a research agenda for scholars and practitioners working on this emerging research stream.
Journal Article
Reemergence of Dengue Virus Serotype 3, Brazil, 2023
We characterized 3 autochthonous dengue virus serotype 3 cases and 1 imported case from 2 states in the North and South Regions of Brazil, 15 years after Brazil's last outbreak involving this serotype. We also identified a new Asian lineage recently introduced into the Americas, raising concerns about future outbreaks.
Journal Article
Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil
After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.
Zika and dengue incidence in the Americas declined in 2017–2018, but dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil. This study uses epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to show that the decline of dengue may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years.
Journal Article