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6,489 result(s) for "Equilibrium interest rate"
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An Equilibrium Model of \Global Imbalances\ and Low Interest Rates
The sustained rise in US current account deficits, the stubborn decline in long-run real rates, and the rise in US assets in global portfolios appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional models. This paper rationalizes these facts as an equilibrium outcome when different regions of the world differ in their capacity to generate financial assets from real investments. Extensions of the basic model generate exchange rate and foreign direct investment excess returns broadly consistent with the recent trends in these variables. The framework is flexible enough to shed light on a range of scenarios in a global equilibrium environment.
Agency Conflicts, Investment, and Asset Pricing
The separation of ownership and control allows controlling shareholders to pursue private benefits. We develop an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study asset pricing and welfare implications of imperfect investor protection. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that countries with weaker investor protection have more incentives to overinvest, lower Tobin's q, higher return volatility, larger risk premia, and higher interest rate. Calibrating the model to the Korean economy reveals that perfecting investor protection increases the stock market's value by 22%, a gain for which outside shareholders are willing to pay 11% of their capital stock.
Aggregate Demand and the Top 1 Percent
There has been a large rise in US top income inequality since the 1980s. We merge a widely studied model of the Pareto tail of labor incomes with a canonical model of consumption and savings to study the consequences of this increase for aggregate demand. Our model suggests that the rise of the top 1 percent may have led to a large increase in desired savings and can explain a 0.45pp to 0.85pp decline in long-run real interest rates. This effect arises from both a wealth effect at the top and increased precautionary savings from declines lower in the income distribution.
Relative Wealth Concerns and Financial Bubbles
We present a rational general equilibrium model that highlights the fact that relative wealth concerns can play a role in explaining financial bubbles. We consider a finite-horizon overlapping generations model in which agents care only about their consumption. Though the horizon is finite, competition over future investment opportunities makes agents' utilities dependent on the wealth of their cohort and induces relative wealth concerns. Agents herd into risky securities and drive down their expected return. Even though the bubble is likely to burst and lead to a substantial loss, agents' relative wealth concerns make them afraid to trade against the crowd.
Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules
We introduce rule-of-thumb consumers in an otherwise standard dynamic sticky price model, and show how their presence can change dramatically the properties of widely used interest rate rules. In particular, the existence of a unique equilibrium is no longer guaranteed by an interest rate rule that satisfies the so-called Taylor principle. Our findings call for caution when using estimates of interest rate rules in order to assess the merits of monetary policy in specific historical periods.
Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates
We develop a model of currency crises, in which traders are heterogeneously informed, and interest rates are endogenously determined in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium. In our model, multiple equilibria result from distinct roles an interest rate plays in determining domestic asset market allocations and the devaluation outcome. Except for special cases, this finding is not affected by the introduction of noisy private signals. We conclude that the global games results on equilibrium uniqueness do not apply to market-based models of currency crises.
Natural equilibrium real interest rate estimates and monetary policy design
Practical monetary policy concerns and recent theoretical developments have revived interest in the concept of a \"natural\" equilibrium real interest rate. The natural real interest rate is potentially an important concept for monetary policy makers and some researchers have suggested that the concept of a \"real interest rate gap\" can be used to evaluate the stance of monetary policy or even set policy. Obtaining an estimate for the equilibrium real interest rate, however, is not straightforward, and the existence of alternative approaches to this task generates uncertainty about those estimates. In this paper, we discuss some conceptual, policy, and modeling issues pertaining to the U.S. equilibrium interest rate. Such issues include the distinction between \"natural\" and \"neutral\" real interest rates, the determination of the natural real interest rate in an open economy context, the different ways that productivity may affect the natural equilibrium real interest rate, and the sensitivity of theoretical measures of the natural equilibrium real interest rates to various parameterizations.
RECURSIVE EQUILIBRIA IN AN AIYAGARI-STYLE ECONOMY WITH PERMANENT INCOME SHOCKS
We prove existence of a recursive competitive equilibrium (RCE) for an Aiyagari-style economy with permanent income shocks and derive important economic implications. We show that there exist equilibria where borrowing constraints are never binding and establish a nontrivial lower bound on the equilibrium interest rate. These results imply distinct consumption dynamics compared to existing studies. We present a new approach to solve the agent's problem that uses lattices of consumption functions to deal with permanent income shocks and an unbounded utility function. The approach provides a theoretical foundation for convergence of the time iteration algorithm widely used in applied work.
Information and Heterogeneous Beliefs: Cost of Capital, Trading Volume, and Investor Welfare
In an incomplete market with heterogeneous prior beliefs, we show that public information can have a substantial impact on the ex ante cost of capital, trading volume, and investor welfare. The Pareto efficient public information system is the system enjoying the maximum ex ante cost of capital and the maximum expected abnormal trading volume. Imperfect public information increases the gains-to-trade based on heterogeneously updated posterior beliefs. In an exchange economy, this leads to higher growth in the investors' certainty equivalents and, thus, a higher equilibrium interest rate, whereas the ex ante risk premium is unaffected by the informativeness of the public information system. Similar results are obtained in a production economy, but the impact on the ex ante cost of capital is dampened compared to the exchange economy due to welfare-improving reductions in real investments to smooth the investors' certainty equivalents over time.
A Stochastic Competitive R&D Race Where \Winner Takes All\
The paper considers a race among multiple firms that compete over the development of a product. The first firm to complete the development gains a reward, whereas the other firms gain nothing. Each firm decides how much to invest in developing the product, and the time it completes the development is a random variable that depends on the investment level. The paper provides a method for explicitly computing a unique Nash equilibrium, parametrically in the interest rate; for a given interest rate, the Nash equilibrium is determined in time that is linear in the number of firms. The structure of the solution yields insights about the behavior of the participants. Furthermore, an explicit expression for a unique globally optimal solution is obtained and compared to the unique Nash equilibrium.