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Creating innovative ways for the identification of trends is a very vital part of atmospheric studies. Different climatic locations present their unique variations, calling for the dynamism of trend analysis. In addition to the widely adopted Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test, the new Şen’s innovative trend analysis (ITA) method has been applied to analyze the trends of refractivity related (atmosphere pressure—AP, vapour pressure—VP, ambient temperature—T) and equivalent potential temperature—EPT related parameters (mixing ratio of air—R, absolute temperature at the lifting condensation level— T L , potential temperature—PT). This analysis was perfomed using 40 years’ data (1981–2020) from 4 stations from each climatic zone of Nigeria (Calabar—Tropical monsoon, Ibadan—Tropical Savannah, Kano—Warm semiarid climate, and Kukawa—Warm desert climate). The MK test detects trends in 16 of the total 32 parameters across all locations/climatic regions. The Sen’s ITA method however, detects trends for an average of about 27 parameters for all low, medium and high values. MK results for parameters across climatic zones that show no trends are demystified by the Sen’s ITA method with increasing and/or decreasing trends across low, medium or high values; consequently, parameters that show trends from the MK test have monotonically increasing trends (where all low, medium and high values are above the 1:1 (45°) line) for the Sen’s ITA test. Other comparisons between both methods were outlined and explained; correlation heat maps were used to show the relationship between all parameters for each climatic location, describing the effect of climate on the variations of these parameters. The low, medium and high values revealed from the Şen’s ITA method can be informative for telecom and renewable energy applications, guiding engineers and system designers to understand the trends within range of values for a particular climatic parameter. Graphical abstract The movement of air parcels and amount water vapour in the atmosphere is a very vital concept to consider in atmospheric dynamics. The climatic parameters shown in the image are all related to one or both of the aforementioned conditions. A comparison of the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Innovative trend method has been applied to study these parameters over the four climatic zones of Nigeria. It has been observed that the Sen’s test identifies trends for low, medium and high values, giving more information about the trends and how they can be applied for engineering designs and renewable energy.

The Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV) is a key system triggering rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the boreal summer. The TPV genesis mechanisms are complicated and its classification is a great challenge. This study attempts to elucidate these aspects. By introducing the standardized index of 24-h increment of equivalent potential temperature Δ 24 h θ e at 500 hPa, all the TPV cases generated in June between 1980 and 2016 are classified as either positive or negative. Composite analysis is subsequently applied to the extremes of these two types, i.e., the first and last fifth-percentile cases with extremely negative and positive standardized Δ 24 h θ e , respectively. Results indicate that 70% of them occur in relatively warmer and wetter environments, with diabatic heating dominating the positive type and the dynamic effect of large-scale circulation dominating the negative type. For the extremely positive cluster, the geopotential-height increment over the TP exhibits a negative/west–positive/east dipole, which enhances the southerly flow over the western TP, while forming surface water–vapor convergence. Consequently, strong condensation heating occurs near the sub-cloud level, resulting in the development of potential vorticity below and eventually TPV genesis. For the negative cluster, local shear lines at 500 hPa and upstream troughs at 250 hPa occur at the TPV genesis location. In conjunction with anomalous westerlies, positive potential vorticity is generated in situ due to zonal advection. The retardation caused by the Kunlun Mountains on the impinging westerly flow associated with side-boundary friction also contributes to TPV genesis southeast of the mountains.

In this study, the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature ( θ e ) distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones (TCs) encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method. Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward, resulting in the lowest θ e in the downshear-left boundary layer. Quantitative estimations of θ e recovery indicate that air parcels, especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core, can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically. As a result, the maximum θ e is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC. The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement of θ e in the downshear-left outer core. In particular, the former plays a leading role in such θ e enhancements, while the latter plays a secondary role. As a result, moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.

SignificanceThe Earth has warmed by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C since the preindustrial era. The most common metric to measure the ongoing global warming is surface air temperature since it has long and reliable observational records. However, surface air temperature alone does not fully describe the nature of global warming and its impact on climate and weather extremes. Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies. Trends in surface air temperature (SAT) are a common metric for global warming. Using observations and observationally driven models, we show that a more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes is the trend in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae_sfc) since it also accounts for the increase in atmospheric humidity and latent energy. From 1980 to 2019, while SAT increased by 0.79°C, Thetae_sfc increased by 1.48°C globally and as much as 4°C in the tropics. The increase in water vapor is responsible for the factor of 2 difference between SAT and Thetae_sfc trends. Thetae_sfc increased more uniformly (than SAT) between the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere, revealing the global nature of the heating added by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Trends in heat extremes and extreme precipitation are correlated strongly with the global/tropical trends in Thetae_sfc. The tropical amplification of Thetae_sfc is as large as the arctic amplification of SAT, accounting for the observed global positive trends in deep convection and a 20% increase in heat extremes. With unchecked GHG emissions, while SAT warming can reach 4.8°C by 2100, the global mean Thetae_sfc can increase by as much as 12°C, with corresponding increases of 12°C (median) to 24°C (5% of grid points) in land surface temperature extremes, a 14- to 30-fold increase in frequency of heat extremes, a 40% increase in the energy available for tropical deep convection, and an up to 60% increase in extreme precipitation. Description

This study examines how midlevel dry air and vertical wind shear (VWS) can modulate tropical cyclone (TC) development via downdraft ventilation. A suite of experiments was conducted with different combinations of initial midlevel moisture and VWS. A strong, positive, linear relationship exists between the low-level vertical mass flux in the inner core and TC intensity. The linear increase in vertical mass flux with intensity is not due to an increased strength of upward motions but, instead, is due to an increased areal extent of strong upward motions ( w > 0.5 m s −1 ). This relationship suggests physical processes that could influence the vertical mass flux, such as downdraft ventilation, influence the intensity of a TC. The azimuthal asymmetry and strength of downdraft ventilation is associated with the vertical tilt of the vortex: downdraft ventilation is located cyclonically downstream from the vertical tilt direction and its strength is associated with the magnitude of the vertical tilt. Importantly, equivalent potential temperature of parcels associated with downdraft ventilation trajectories quickly recovers via surface fluxes in the subcloud layer, but the areal extent of strong upward motions is reduced. Altogether, the modulating effects of downdraft ventilation on TC development are the downward transport of low–equivalent potential temperature, negative-buoyancy air left of shear and into the upshear semicircle, as well as low-level radial outflow upshear, which aid in reducing the areal extent of strong upward motions, thereby reducing the vertical mass flux in the inner core, and stunting TC development.

Increases in the severity of heat stress extremes are potentially one of the most impactful consequences of climate change, affecting human comfort, productivity, health, and mortality in many places on Earth. Heat stress results from a combination of elevated temperature and humidity, but the relative contributions of each of these to heat stress changes have yet to be quantified. Here, conditions for the baseline specific humidity are derived for when specific humidity or temperature dominates heat stress changes, as measured using the equivalent potential temperature (θE ). Separate conditions are derived over ocean and over land, in addition to a condition for when relative humidity changes make a larger contribution than the Clausius–Clapeyron response at fixed relative humidity. These conditions are used to interpret the θE responses in transient warming simulations with an ensemble of models participating in phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The regional pattern of θE changes is shown to be largely determined by the pattern of specific humidity changes, with the pattern of temperature changes playing a secondary role. This holds whether considering changes in seasonal-mean θE or in extreme (98th-percentile) θE events, and uncertainty in the response of specific humidity to warming is shown to be the leading source of uncertainty in the θE response atmost land locations. Finally, analysis of ERA5 data demonstrates that the pattern of observed θE changes is also well explained by the pattern of specific humidity changes. These results demonstrate that understanding regional changes in specific humidity is largely sufficient for understanding regional changes in heat stress.

This study demonstrates how midlevel dry air and vertical wind shear (VWS) can modulate tropical cyclone (TC) development via radial ventilation. A suite of experiments was conducted with different combinations of initial midlevel moisture and VWS environments. Two radial ventilation structures are documented. The first structure is positioned in a similar region as rainband activity and downdraft ventilation (documented in Part I) between heights of 0 and 3 km. Parcels associated with this first structure transport low–equivalent potential temperature air inward and downward left of shear and upshear to suppress convection. The second structure is associated with the vertical tilt of the vortex and storm-relative flow between heights of 5 and 9 km. Parcels associated with this second structure transport low–relative humidity air inward upshear and right of shear to suppress convection. Altogether, the modulating effects of radial ventilation on TC development are the inward transport of low–equivalent potential temperature air, as well as low-level radial outflow upshear, which aid in reducing the areal extent of strong upward motions, thereby reducing the vertical mass flux in the inner core, and stunting TC development.

A major open issue in tropical meteorology is how and why some tropical cyclones intensify under moderate vertical wind shear. This study tackles that issue by diagnosing physical processes of tropical cyclone intensification in a moderately sheared environment using a 20-member ensemble of idealized simulations. Consistent with previous studies, the ensemble shows that the onset of intensification largely depends on the timing of vortex tilt reduction and symmetrization of precipitation. A new contribution of this work is a process-based analysis following a shear-induced midtropospheric vortex with its associated precipitation. This analysis shows that tilt reduction and symmetrization precede intensification because those processes are associated with a substantial increase in near-surface vertical mass fluxes and equivalent potential temperature. A vorticity budget demonstrates that the increased near-surface vertical mass fluxes aid intensification via near-surface stretching of absolute vorticity and free-tropospheric tilting of horizontal vorticity. Importantly, tilt reduction happens because of a vortex merger process—not because of advective vortex alignment—that yields a single closed circulation over a deep layer. Vortex merger only happens after the midtropospheric vortex reaches upshear left, where the flow configuration favors near-surface vortex stretching, deep updrafts, and a substantial reduction of low-entropy fluxes. These results lead to the hypothesis that intensification under moderate shear happens if and when a “restructuring” process is completed, after which a closed circulation favors persistent vorticity spinup and recirculating warm, moist air parcels.

The feedback between aerosol and meteorological variables in the atmospheric boundary layer over the North China Plain (NCP) is analyzed by conducting numerical experiments with and without the aerosol direct and indirect effects via a coupled meteorology and aerosol/chemistry model (WRF-Chem). The numerical experiments are performed for the period of 2–26 January 2013, during which a severe fog–haze event (10–15 January 2013) occurred, with the simulated maximum hourly surface PM2.5 concentration of ~600 ug m−3, minimum atmospheric visibility of ~0.3 km, and 10–100 hours of simulated hourly surface PM2.5 concentration above 300 ug m−3 over NCP. A comparison of model results with aerosol feedback against observations indicates that the model can reproduce the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature, relative humidity (RH), wind, surface PM2.5 concentration, atmospheric visibility, and aerosol optical depth reasonably well. Analysis of model results with and without aerosol feedback shows that during the fog–haze event aerosols lead to a significant negative radiative forcing of −20 to −140 W m−2 at the surface and a large positive radiative forcing of 20–120 W m−2 in the atmosphere and induce significant changes in meteorological variables with maximum changes during 09:00–18:00 local time (LT) over urban Beijing and Tianjin and south Hebei: the temperature decreases by 0.8–2.8 °C at the surface and increases by 0.1–0.5 °C at around 925 hPa, while RH increases by about 4–12% at the surface and decreases by 1–6% at around 925 hPa. As a result, the aerosol-induced equivalent potential temperature profile change shows that the atmosphere is much more stable and thus the surface wind speed decreases by up to 0.3 m s−1 (10%) and the atmosphere boundary layer height decreases by 40–200 m (5–30%) during the daytime of this severe fog–haze event. Owing to this more stable atmosphere during 09:00–18:00, 10–15~January, compared to the surface PM2.5 concentration from the model results without aerosol feedback, the average surface PM2.5 concentration increases by 10–50 μg m−3 (2–30%) over Beijing, Tianjin, and south Hebei and the maximum increase of hourly surface PM2.5 concentration is around 50 (70%), 90 (60%), and 80 μg m−3 (40%) over Beijing, Tianjin, and south Hebei, respectively. Although the aerosol concentration is maximum at nighttime, the mechanism of feedback, by which meteorological variables increase the aerosol concentration most, occurs during the daytime (around 10:00 and 16:00 LT). The results suggest that aerosol induces a more stable atmosphere, which is favorable for the accumulation of air pollutants, and thus contributes to the formation of fog–haze events.

Eastward propagation is an essential feature of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Yet, it remains a challenge to realistically simulate it by global climate system models, and the reasons are not fully understood. This study evaluates the capability of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating MJO’s eastward propagation and its intrinsic links with the dynamic–thermodynamic structures and the background mean states, aiming at better understanding the sources of the simulation errors. The metrics to evaluate the MJO internal dynamics consists of six parameters: 1) the east–west asymmetry in the low-level circulation, 2) the boundary layer moisture convergence propagation, 3) the vertical tilt of equivalent potential temperature or moist static energy, the vertical structures of 4) diabatic heating and 5) available potential energy generation, and 6) upper-level diabatic heating and divergence. We also gauge the performance of three MJO-related background mean-state fields, including precipitation, sea surface temperature, and low-level moist static energy. It is argued that these parameters are relevant internal and external factors that could affect MJO eastward propagation. We find that the boundary layer moisture convergence is most tightly coupled with the eastward propagation of MJO and controls the premoistening, destabilization, and the leading low-level diabatic heating and available potential energy generation. The CMIP6 models exhibit significant improvements against CMIP5 models in simulating MJO dynamic–thermodynamic structures and the mean states. The diagnostics in this study could help to identify the possible processes related to CMIP6 models’ shortcomings and shed light on how to improve simulation of MJO eastward propagation in the future.