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Product-harm crises are among a firm's worst nightmares. A firm may experience (i) a loss in baseline sales, (ii) a reduced own effectiveness for its marketing instruments, (iii) an increased cross sensitivity to rival firms' marketing-mix activities, and (iv) a decreased cross impact of its marketing-mix instruments on the sales of competing, unaffected brands. We find that this quadruple jeopardy materialized in a case study of an Australian product-harm crisis faced by Kraft peanut butter. We arrive at this conclusion by using a time-varying error-correction model that quantifies the consequences of this crisis on base sales, and on own- and cross-brand short- and long-term effectiveness. The proposed modeling approach allows managers to make more informed decisions on how to regain the brands' pre-crisis performance levels.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Vietnam has experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by increasing energy consumption and environmental pressures, particularly rising carbon intensity. Reducing carbon intensity is essential for achieving sustainable development and meeting climate commitments. Renewable energy and innovation are expected to contribute to improving energy efficiency and decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation. However, empirical evidence on whether renewable energy moderates the relationship between conomic growth and carbon intensity remains limited. The study objectives were to examine both long-run and short-run relationships among economic growth, renewable energy, innovation, and carbon intensity in Vietnam from 1988 to 2021, while also evaluating the moderating role of renewable energy.METHODS: This study applies a vector error correction modeling framework to analyze long-run equilibrium relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics among the variables. The modeling approach allows identification of cointegration relationships and estimation of both long-run coefficients and short-run adjustment processes using annual time-series data.FINDINGS: The results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. Economic growth has a negative and statistically significant effect on carbon intensity, with estimated coefficients of −0.00593 and −0.00503 in the two models, respectively, both statistically significant at the one percent level. In contrast, renewable energy consumption has a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on carbon intensity, with a coefficient of 0.00760, suggesting that renewable energy has primarily complemented rather than substituted fossil fuels during the study period. The interaction term between renewable energy and economic growth is statistically insignificant, indicating no moderating effect. Innovation also shows no statistically significant impact. In the short run, most coefficients are statistically insignificant, and the adjustment toward long-run equilibrium occurs slowly.CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that reducing carbon intensity in Vietnam is a long-term process that requires deeper structural transformation and stronger integration of renewable energy to support sustainable and low-carbon economic development.

Ensuring fiscal sustainability in the Member States of the European Union has become an extremely important goal in the current economic context. The formulation of appropriate policies can lead to fiscal consolidation, and the manifestation of a fiscal shock with direct implications on national budgets and can be mitigated by a rational approach. The aim of this paper is to examine issues related to ensuring fiscal sustainability and to identify the necessary fiscal policy instruments in this regard. Using a data set for EU member states for the period 2000–2019, we researched fiscal policy objectives for economic development and the volume of public and private investment. The error correction model (ECM) was used as a derivative of the autoregressive model with distributed lags (ARDL) to assess the short-term variation of Gross Domestic Product under the influence of seven fiscal indicators. The study highlights the aspects of fiscal policies at EU level as well as the correlation between economic development and the fiscal behaviour of the authorities. We contribute to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the existence of a direct relationship between economic growth and the volume of private investment. First published online 01 March 2022

The volatility of food prices still raises concerns among agricultural market players, increasing interest in the futures markets, thus calling for a better understanding of the connection between the futures and the Italian spot prices. This study uses symmetric and asymmetric vector error correction models to investigate the relationship between futures and spot prices for the Italian agricultural markets of soybean, corn, and milling wheat. The results confirm the leading role of the futures contract prices for all the considered commodities. Moreover, the non-linear cointegration analysis results suggest price transmission's asymmetries for all the agricultural commodity prices. This research provides critical insight into the shape of the futures-spot price transmission.

This article investigates the link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism development for the case of the small island economy of Mauritius for the period 1980-2015. The research employs a dynamic time series econometrics framework, namely a vector error correction model (VECM), to account for potential dynamic and endogenous relationship in the FDI-tourism nexus. Analysis of the finding shows that FDI has a positive and significant effect, albeit relatively lower compared to the other classical factors of tourism development, in the long run. Interestingly, a bicausal effect is observed in the long run while an indirect link between FDI and tourism development via the economic growth channel is found.

The present article aims to analyse wage-labour productivity causalities in Croatia and Slovenia using cointegration methods based on monthly time series data of variables for labour productivity and real gross wages in tourism industry during the period December 1999-January 2020. The data vector is integrated by chain indices with the constant base January 2000 = 100. A stochastic trend and shocks are covered in the analysis. Shocks are linked to the European Union accession, and economic crisis following with overwhelmed tourist arrivals. The contribution of the research is two-fold. First, the equations for at most normal distributed variables of labour productivity and real wages in tourism are exposed. Three spatial cointegration relations confirm labour productivity integrity of the regional tourism market. Second, pair-wise causalities indicate one cointegrated vector for labour productivity, which drives real gross wages in tourism sub-industries. These results suggest that for a higher non-seasonal assessment of real gross wage, the labour productivity should rise, i.e. less workers, more robotization or more tourist arrivals with better quality solutions. These findings are at most important to be implemented after the COVID-19 infection crisis with expected restructurings and digital transformation in the tourism industry.

In a recent Research and Politics article, we showed that for many types of time series data, concerns about spurious relationships can be overcome by following standard procedures associated with cointegration tests and the general error correction model (GECM). Matthew Lebo and Patrick Kraft (LK) incorrectly argue that our recommended approach will lead researchers to identify false (i.e., spurious) relationships. In this article, we show how LK’s response is incorrect or misleading in multiple ways. Most importantly, when we correct their simulations, their results reinforce our previous findings, highlighting the utility of the GECM when estimated and interpreted correctly.

Purpose: This paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may incentivize unemployment and may also facilitate better matching in the labor market. Statistical evidence of the presence of a co-movement will thus shed new light on their dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: This research applies time-series econometric approach using monthly data from 1959:1 to 2020:3 to test threshold cointegration and estimate a threshold vector error-correction (TVEC) model. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics. Findings: The Enders and Siklos (2001) test find evidence of threshold cointegration between the two indicating the presence of long-run co-movement. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics find evidence that the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in labor force participation rate adjust simultaneously to maintain the long-run co-movement above the threshold in the short run. The author also observes the same short-run dynamics for the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in the labor force participation rate for females. Research limitations/implications This model is bi-variate by construction and does not address causality. Practical implications The author argues that the UI program positively impacts the female labor market outcomes, for example, better matching. This finding may explain the upward trend in the labor force participation rate for females in the USA. Social implications The research findings may justify the transfer programs for minority and immigrants. Originality/value: This is first research that analyzes the UI programs impact on the labor force participation using a macroeconometric approach. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in this genre.

In Uganda’s development aspiration “VISION 2040”, Uganda aspires to transform its society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous middle-income country by 2040, with per capita income of USD 9, 567. To attain the vision, savings as a percentage of GDP should be over 35%. Notwithstanding such a high commitment, GDS as a percentage of GDP has remained below the desired target, standing at 16.5% in 2017. This paper investigated the determinants of Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) in Uganda for the period 1980–2017. The theoretical framework is based on the life-cycle/permanent-income hypothesis. Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips–Perron tests were utilized to test for the stationarity of the time series variables in the model. To test for both the short-run and long-run relationships among GDS and the independent variables, the ARDL bounds testing approach was adopted. The observational results indicate that in the long run, Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDPg), Foreign Domestic Investments (FDI) and Broad money (M2) have positive and statistically significant effects on GDS, while Current Account Balance (CAB) and Gross National Expenditure (GNE) have negative impacts on savings. Deposit Interest Rate (DIR) was observed to be a statistically unimportant determinant of GDS in Uganda. In the short run, CAB has a positive and statistically significant impact on GDS while GDPg and DIR have a negative and statistically significant impact on GDS. The paper recommends increasing net exports through implementation of the industrial and export strategy espoused in the national development plan 2. In addition, the government should ensure a predictable economic environment to act as an assurance to the foreign investors that their investments will yield profits.

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks has produced anomalous results, with stocks often appearing to offer a perverse hedge. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalization stock returns is carried out with inflation divided into expected and unexpected components. The analyses are undertaken using an error correction approach. In the long run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly private market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from those of stocks.