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"Europe Foreign relations Forecasting."
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Permanent alliance? : NATO and the transatlantic bargain from Truman to Obama
This book is an interpretive analysis of transatlantic security relations from the preparation of the North Atlantic Treaty to the Obama administration.
eBook
Tales of Brexits Past and Present
Three previous Brexits, each of which had a different cause and a different outcome, are analysed and contrasted to the current Brexit, begging the question \"what happens next?\".
eBook
Analysis of Early Warning of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Value at Risk Measurement Based on Deep Learning
To improve the RMB exchange rate prediction and risk measurement, the RMB exchange rate prediction model is constructed based on deep learning approaches. Value at risk (VaR) risk measurement related data are used, and this model is combined with the autoregressive moving average model-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model to fabricate an integrated VaR risk measurement model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified on specific example data. The results show that the proposed deep learning RMB exchange rate prediction model has better performance than traditional exchange rate prediction models in predicting exchange rates in different international foreign exchange markets, with accuracy of 74.92%. ARMA-GARCH risk prediction model has good measurement performance for the market, and its accuracy is significantly higher than that of the traditional measurement model. The deep confidence network model has stable performance and ideal forecasting effects both in the forecast of exchange rate fluctuations and in risk measurement. In short, this research can improve China’s research on exchange rate fluctuations and effectively strengthens the ability of forecasting and risk assessment of the foreign exchange market.
Journal Article
Cutting through the Hype: Understanding the Economic Potential of Saudi Arabia-Israel Diplomatic Relations
This article will assess the extent of future trade relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia after normalization, and attempt to identify key sectors likely to benefit from the diplomatic shift. Using a robust methodology, we aim to project potential trade volumes between the two countries and discuss the challenges inherent to the new economic landscape. The core of this analysis uses 2020 trade figures, a pivotal year marked by the signing of the \"Abraham Accords\", to project future trends and estimate potential trade figures between KSA and Israel in the coming years. The strength of our research lies not in its precise trade volume calculations but in the highlighted sectors poised for growth and an understanding of factors that influence economic cooperation. Initially focused on Saudi Arabia—the more sought-after party in this context—the article details both the current measures taken to align KSA politically and diplomatically with Israel and previous steps taken to reach a peace agreement. We then discuss relevant regional and geopolitical developments. Moving on to our economic analysis, we highlight factors that could shape or alter the scope of transactions between the two countries. Finally, we introduce our method for evaluating the economic potential between Saudi Arabia and Israel, by comparing it with World Trade Organization data from various countries already trading with Saudi Arabia in similar fields.
Journal Article
THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LEAVING THE EU
The aim of this paper is to analyse the long-term implications of leaving the EU for the UK economy. To do this, we consider three main channels by which the UK economy could be affected in the long run: 1)Reductions in trade with EU countries and a modest increase in tariff barriers.2)A reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly affecting services FDI.3)A reduction in the UK’s net fiscal contribution to the EU.We input these effects of leaving the EU into NiGEM, the National Institute Global Econometric Model, a multi-country economic forecasting model. NiGEM has been developed at NIESR over the past three decades and is funded by subscriptions from international institutions, central banks and finance ministries from around the world, as well as some private sector institutions. Both the OECD and HM Treasury have also chosen to use NiGEM to conduct their analysis of the economic impact of leaving the EU. This is not surprising, as NiGEM’s explicit trade linkages make it particularly well-suited to modelling the impact on the UK economy of shifts in trade policy.
Journal Article
The National Origins of Policy Ideas
In politics, ideas matter. They provide the foundation for economic policymaking, which in turn shapes what is possible in domestic and international politics. Yet until now, little attention has been paid to how these ideas are produced and disseminated, and how this process varies between countries.The National Origins of Policy Ideasprovides the first comparative analysis of how \"knowledge regimes\"-communities of policy research organizations like think tanks, political party foundations, ad hoc commissions, and state research offices, and the institutions that govern them-generate ideas and communicate them to policymakers.
John Campbell and Ove Pedersen examine how knowledge regimes are organized, operate, and have changed over the last thirty years in the United States, France, Germany, and Denmark. They show how there are persistent national differences in how policy ideas are produced. Some countries do so in contentious, politically partisan ways, while others are cooperative and consensus oriented. They find that while knowledge regimes have adopted some common practices since the 1970s, tendencies toward convergence have been limited and outcomes have been heavily shaped by national contexts.
Drawing on extensive interviews with top officials at leading policy research organizations, this book demonstrates why knowledge regimes are as important to capitalism as the state and the firm, and sheds new light on debates about the effects of globalization, the rise of neoliberalism, and the orientation of comparative political economy in political science and sociology.
eBook
The Next Great War?
Experts consider how the lessons of World War I can help prevent U.S.–China conflict.
A century ago, Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and the continent plunged into World War I, which killed millions, toppled dynasties, and destroyed empires. Today, as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes, scholars and policy experts are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the world of 1914. Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous great power rivals? Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars? Can leaders manage power relationships peacefully? Or will East Asia's territorial and maritime disputes trigger a larger conflict, just as rivalries in the Balkans did in 1914?
In The Next Great War?, experts reconsider the causes of World War I and explore whether the great powers of the twenty-first century can avoid the mistakes of Europe's statesmen in 1914 and prevent another catastrophic conflict. They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914—but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences and early action to bring great powers together will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great war.
Contributors
Alan Alexandroff, Graham Allison, Richard N. Cooper, Charles S. Maier, Steven E. Miller, Joseph S. Nye Jr., T. G. Otte, David K. Richards, Richard N. Rosecrance, Kevin Rudd, Jack Snyder, Etel Solingen, Arthur A. Stein, Stephen Van Evera
eBook
The Alchemy of Empire: Abject Materials and the Technologies of Colonialism
The Alchemy of Empire unravels the non-European origins of Enlightenment science. Focusing on the abject materials of empire-building, this study traces the genealogies of substances like mud, mortar, ice, and paper, as well as forms of knowledge like inoculation. Showing how East India Company employees deployed the paradigm of alchemy in order to make sense of the new worlds they confronted, Rajani Sudan argues that the Enlightenment was born largely out of Europe's (and Britain's) sense of insecurity and inferiority in the early modern world. Plumbing the depths of the imperial archive, Sudan uncovers the history of the British Enlightenment in the literary artifacts of the long eighteenth century, from the correspondence of the East India Company and the papers of the Royal Society to the poetry of Alexander Pope and the novels of Jane Austen.
eBook
The Great Leap Offshore: Sino-Norwegian Relations and Petro-Knowledge Transfers, 1976–1997
China’s reemergence among the world’s leading economic and political powers has been one of the most defining changes in the international order since the end of the Cold War. Underpinning China’s ascent were the economic reforms instituted across the late 1970s and early 1980s that opened its economy to foreign direct investments. Preceding these reforms were the ambitions entertained for China’s continental shelf, optimistically forecasting it as nothing less than “the world’s richest petroleum reservoir.” This article will attempt to link these phenomena by examining the economic readjustment in conjunction with the capital- and technology-intensive requirements of the offshore oil industry. It will explore how petroleum knowledge was diffused between Norway and China: notably, how Chinese reformers abandoned the Daqinigst doctrine of self-reliance in favor of a hybrid Norwegian model of petroleum governance. Even though exploration efforts proved disappointing, the episode had both long-term political and commercial ramifications. It was during this often-overlooked episode of Chinese, international, and indeed Norwegian petroleum history that Norway’s national oil company, Statoil, took its first steps outside the Norwegian continental shelf and inspired the formation of China’s own national offshore oil company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
Journal Article