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One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as “Hopkins’ bioclimatic law.” What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from34 d·1,000m−1 conforming to Hopkins’ bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d·1,000 m−1 in 2016, i.e., −35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant–animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.

A comprehensive assessment of twenty-first century climate change in the European Alps is presented. The analysis is based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble available at two grid spacings (12.5 and 50 km) and for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The core simulation ensemble has been subject to a dedicated evaluation exercise carried out in the frame of the CH2018 Climate Scenarios for Switzerland. Results reveal that the entire Alpine region will face a warmer climate in the course of the twenty-first century for all emission scenarios considered. Strongest warming is projected for the summer season, for regions south of the main Alpine ridge and for the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. Depending on the season, medium to high elevations might experience an amplified warming. Model uncertainty can be considerable, but the major warming patterns are consistent across the ensemble. For precipitation, a seasonal shift of precipitation amounts from summer to winter over most parts of the domain is projected. However, model uncertainty is high and individual simulations can show change signals of opposite sign. Daily precipitation intensity is projected to increase in all seasons and all sub-domains, while the wet-day frequency will decrease in the summer season. The projected temperature change in summer is negatively correlated with the precipitation change, i.e. simulations and/or regions with a strong seasonal mean warming typically show a stronger precipitation decrease. By contrast, a positive correlation between temperature change and precipitation change is found for winter. Among other indicators, snow cover will be strongly affected by the projected climatic changes and will be subject to a widespread decrease except for very high elevation settings. In general and for all indicators, the magnitude of the change signals increases with the assumed greenhouse gas forcing, i.e., is smallest for RCP 2.6 and largest for RCP 8.5 with RCP 4.5 being located in between. These results largely agree with previous works based on older generations of RCM ensembles but, due to the comparatively large ensemble size and the high spatial resolution, allow for a more decent assessment of inherent projection uncertainties and of spatial details of future Alpine climate change.

The factors that determine the efficiency of energy transfer in aquatic food webs have been investigated for many decades. The plant-animal interface is the most variable and least predictable of all levels in the food web. In order to study determinants of food quality in a large lake and to test the recently proposed central importance of the long-chained eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) at the pelagic producer-grazer interface, we tested the importance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) at the pelagic producer-consumer interface by correlating sestonic food parameters with somatic growth rates of a clone of Daphnia galeata. Daphnia growth rates were obtained from standardized laboratory experiments spanning one season with Daphnia feeding on natural seston from Lake Constance, a large pre-alpine lake. Somatic growth rates were fitted to sestonic parameters by using a saturation function. A moderate amount of variation was explained when the model included the elemental parameters carbon (r2= 0.6) and nitrogen (r2= 0.71). A tighter fit was obtained when sestonic phosphorus was incorporated (r2= 0.86). The nonlinear regression with EPA was relatively weak (r2= 0.77), whereas the highest degree of variance was explained by three C18-PUFAs. The best (r2= 0.95), and only significant, correlation of Daphnia's growth was found with the C18-PUFA α-linolenic acid (α-LA; C18:3n-3). This correlation was weakest in late August when C:P values increased to 300, suggesting that mineral and PUFA-limitation of Daphnia's growth changed seasonally. Sestonic phosphorus and some PUFAs showed not only tight correlations with growth, but also with sestonic α-LA content. We computed Monte Carlo simulations to test whether the observed effects of α-LA on growth could be accounted for by EPA, phosphorus, or one of the two Cl8-PUFAs, stearidonic acid (C18:4n-3) and linoleic acid (C18:2n-6). With >99% probability, the correlation of growth with α-LA could not be explained by any of these parameters. In order to test for EPA limitation of Daphnia's growth, in parallel with experiments on pure seston, growth was determined on seston supplemented with chemostat-grown, P-limited Stephanodiscus hantzschii, which is rich in EPA. Although supplementation increased the EPA content 80-800×, no significant changes in the nonlinear regression of the growth rates with α-LA were found, indicating that growth of Daphnia on pure seston was not EPA limited. This indicates that the two fatty acids, EPA and α- LA, were not mutually substitutable biochemical resources and points to different physiological functions of these two PUFAs. These results support the PUFA-limitation hypothesis for sestonic C:P < 300 but are contrary to the hypothesis of a general importance of EPA, since no evidence for EPA limitation was found. It is suggested that the resource ratios of EPA and α-LA rather than the absolute concentrations determine which of the two resources is limiting growth.

Mountain glaciers are key indicators of climate change. Their response is revealed by the environmental equilibrium-line altitude (ELA), i.e. the regional altitude of zero mass balance averaged over a long period of time. We introduce a simple approach for distributed modelling of the environmental ELA over the entire European Alps based on the parameterization of ELA in terms of summer temperature and annual precipitation at a glacier. We use 200 years of climate records and forecasts to model environmental ELA from 1901 to 2100 at 5 arcmin grid cell resolution. Historical environmental ELAs are reconstructed based on precipitation from the Long-term Alpine Precipitation reconstruction (LAPrec) dataset and temperature from the Historical Instrumental climatological Surface Time series of the greater Alpine region (HISTALP). The simulations of future environmental ELAs are forced with high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections for the European domain using three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). Our reconstructions yielded an environmental ELA across the European Alps of 2980 m above sea level for the period 1901−1930, with a rise of 114 m in the period 1971−2000. The environmental ELA is projected to exceed the maximum elevation of 69%, 81% and 92% of the glaciers in the European Alps by 2071−2100 under mitigation (RCP2.6), stabilization (RCP4.5) and high greenhouse gas emission (RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively.

Mountains, such as the Trentino region in the North-Eastern Italian Alps, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Their intricate topography amplifies the interaction between local atmospheric processes and regional-scale dynamics, adding complexity to the assessment of climate impacts. To devise effective adaptation strategies, it is crucial to thoroughly understand the environmental and socio-economic sectors most affected in these distinctive mountain landscapes. This study explores the most significant documented impacts of climate change on the sectors within the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus in Trentino. It highlights their interconnections and the critical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to comprehensively understand the Nexus. The main aim is to provide a solid scientific basis for identifying high-priority climate risks in the region and to craft the most appropriate adaptation strategies. Our findings reveal that regarding individual sectors in Trentino, most studies focus on Ecosystems, followed by Water and Food. The least studied sector is Energy. Regarding the NEXUS, the Water Sector exhibits the majority of interconnections with other components. While the impacts of climate change on individual sectors have been analyzed to varying degrees, the strong interconnections between these sectors remain largely unexplored with important missing interconnections mainly between Energy and Food, and Energy and Ecosystems, as well as a comprehensive consideration of the impacts of energy on water and food on ecosystems.

Cryospheric long-term timeseries get increasingly important. To document climate-related effects on long-term viscous creep of ice-rich mountain permafrost, we investigated timeseries (1995–2022) of geodetically-derived Rock Glacier Velocity (RGV), i.e. spatially averaged interannual velocity timeseries related to a rock glacier (RG) unit or part of it. We considered 50 RGV from 43 RGs spatially covering the entire European Alps. Eight of these RGs are destabilized. Results show that RGV are distinctly variable ranging from 0.04 to 6.23 m a −1 . Acceleration and deceleration at many RGs are highly correlated with similar behaviour over 2.5 decades for 15 timeseries. In addition to a general long-term, warming-induced trend of increasing velocities, three main phases of distinct acceleration (2000–2004, 2008–2015, 2018–2020), interrupted by deceleration or steady state conditions, were identified. The evolution is attributed to climate forcing and underlines the significance of RGV as a product of the Essential Climate Variable (ECV) permafrost. We show that RGV data are valuable as climate indicators, but such data should always be assessed critically considering changing local factors (geomorphic, thermal, hydrologic) and monitoring approaches. To extract a climate signal, larger RGV ensembles should be analysed. Criteria for selecting new RGV-sites are proposed.

Methodological advances in seismic tomography are often driven by the quality of data sets. The dense and homogeneous spatial coverage of the AlpArray seismic network, including hundreds of permanent and temporary broadband stations, has motivated a series of methodological developments of ambient-noise-based tomography of the lithosphere across the entire Alps-Apennines regions, which have been published and are reviewed here. To take full advantage of the ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) in the Ligurian-Provence basin, reconstructed Rayleigh wave signals between OBS have been improved by second-order correlations with onland stations. A Bayesian or fully transdimensional formalism has been introduced in both steps of isotropic ambient noise tomography. The three-dimensional S-wave velocity models have been further improved by wave-equation based inversions accounting for the physics of seismic wave propagation, including elastic–acoustic coupling at the sea bottom. A beamforming approach has been developed to avoid systematic errors in the measurement of azimuthal anisotropy from seismic noise. Probabilistic inversions for depth variations of azimuthal and radial anisotropy have provided robust estimates of anisotropic parameters in the crust and upper mantle that differ significantly from earlier surface-wave tomography studies. These methodological improvements have taken the full benefit of the quality of available seismic data to significantly improve knowledge of the seismic structure of the crust and shallow mantle beneath the Alps-Apennines system. Our findings include detailed mapping of strong and abrupt Moho depth changes under the Western Alps, contrasting orientations of fast velocity directions between the upper and lower Alpine crust, and the absence of significant radial anisotropy everywhere in the European crust and shallow upper mantle, except in the Apenninic lower crust. These methods can be applied to similar dense arrays with equivalent potential benefits.

Radiogenic strontium isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) of vein carbonates play a central role in the tectonometamorphic study of fold-and-thrust belts and accretionary wedges and have been used to document fluid sources and fluxes, for example, along major fault zones. In addition, the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of vein carbonates can trace the diagenetic to metamorphic evolution of pore fluids in accreted sediments. Here we present 87Sr/86Sr ratios of vein carbonates from the Infrahelvetic flysch units of the central European Alps (Glarus Alps, Switzerland), which were accreted to the North Alpine fold-and-thrust belt during the early stages of continental collision. We show that the vein carbonates trace the Sr isotopic evolution of pore fluids from an initial seawater-like signature towards the Sr isotopic composition of the host rock with increasing metamorphic grade. This relationship reflects the progressive equilibration of the pore fluid with the host rock and allows us to constrain the diagenetic to low-grade metamorphic conditions of deformation events, including bedding-parallel shearing, imbricate thrusting, folding, cleavage development, tectonic mélange formation and extension. The strontium isotope systematics of vein carbonates provides new insights into the prograde to early retrograde tectonic evolution of the Alpine fold-and-thrust belt and helps to understand the relative timing of deformation events.

AIM: Emerging polyploids may depend on environmental niche shifts for successful establishment. Using the alpine plant Ranunculus kuepferi as a model system, we explore the niche shift hypothesis at different spatial resolutions and in contrasting parts of the species range. LOCATION: European Alps. METHODS: We sampled 12 individuals from each of 102 populations of R. kuepferi across the Alps, determined their ploidy levels, derived coarse‐grain (100 × 100 m) environmental descriptors for all sampling sites by downscaling WorldClim maps, and calculated fine‐scale environmental descriptors (2 × 2 m) from indicator values of the vegetation accompanying the sampled individuals. Both coarse and fine‐scale variables were further computed for 8239 vegetation plots from across the Alps. Subsequently, we compared niche optima and breadths of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes by combining principal components analysis and kernel smoothing procedures. Comparisons were done separately for coarse and fine‐grain data sets and for sympatric, allopatric and the total set of populations. RESULTS: All comparisons indicate that the niches of the two cytotypes differ in optima and/or breadths, but results vary in important details. The whole‐range analysis suggests differentiation along the temperature gradient to be most important. However, sympatric comparisons indicate that this climatic shift was not a direct response to competition with diploid ancestors. Moreover, fine‐grained analyses demonstrate niche contraction of tetraploids, especially in the sympatric range, that goes undetected with coarse‐grained data. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Although the niche optima of the two cytotypes differ, separation along ecological gradients was probably less decisive for polyploid establishment than a shift towards facultative apomixis, a particularly effective strategy to avoid minority cytotype exclusion. In addition, our results suggest that coarse‐grained analyses overestimate niche breadths of widely distributed taxa. Niche comparison analyses should hence be conducted at environmental data resolutions appropriate for the organism and question under study.

High-alpine ecosystems are strongly seasonal and adverse environments. In these ecosystems, the brevity of optimal breeding conditions means species must efficiently track spatiotemporal variations in resources in order to synchronise their reproductive effort with peaks in food availability. Understanding the details of prey-habitat associations and their seasonality in such ecosystems is thus key for deciphering species’ ecological niches and developing sound conservation action. However, the ecological requirements of high-alpine avifauna remain poorly documented. Furthermore, mountain ranges in the Old World are affected not only by profound alterations of climate, but also by changes in land-use, the interaction of which hampers both proper forecasting of species’ resilience to environmental change and delivery of evidence-based conservation guidance. Here, we investigate the prey-habitat associations of a high-alpine passerine, the White-winged Snowfinch (Montifringilla nivalis), by radio-tracking breeding adults in the Swiss Alps. In late spring and early summer, Snowfinches foraged preferentially next to invertebrate-rich, melting snow patches where Tipulidae larvae abound. Later, in mid-summer, they favoured flower-rich alpine meadows. When foraging, they always preferred short ground vegetation while avoiding rock and scree. Their pattern of foraging habitat selection reflects trade-offs between food abundance and accessibility, i.e. prey availability. The reliance of this passerine on a habitat mosaic where snow plays a major role questions its ability to cope with climate change due to future habitat loss and potential phenological mismatches. Targeted grazing could possibly help in habitat management by aiming at maintaining invertebrate-rich meadows with short vegetation. Yet, it remains an open question whether habitat management would suffice to compensate for the potentially detrimental effects of the progressive retreat of snow fields to higher elevations.