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PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN POST-2000 EU MEMBER STATES WITH EURO ADOPTION: A PENALIZED SPLINE REGRESSION APPROACH
The sustainability of public debt has gained renewed attention in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent geopolitical tensions. This paper investigates long-term debt sustainability in Eurozone countries that acceded post-2000 analyzing fiscal dynamics from 2000–2023. Using penalized spline regression in a semi-parametric time series framework, we evaluate fiscal dynamics while incorporating institutional determinants such as political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism and macroeconomic indicators like the unemployment rate (as a percentage of the total labor force). Our results show that Croatia, Latvia, Malta, and Slovenia have exhibited relatively sustainable debt policies, while other countries show weaker or statistically insignificant sustainability signals. Among the models tested, the one including political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism performed best, suggesting that institutional stability is a key determinant of fiscal sustainability. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating institutional dimensions into debt analysis and provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance fiscal resilience in the Eurozone’s newer member states.
Journal Article
The economic consequences of the Euro : the safest escape plan
\"This book presents a new narrative on the Eurozone crisis. It argues that the common currency has the potential to kill the European Union, and the conventional wisdom that the Eurozone can be fixed by a common budget and further political integration is incorrect. The authors address key questions such as why the European Union and the single market have been successful, why the common currency poses a threat to European integration, and whether it is possible to either fix the Eurozone or dissolve it while keeping the EU and the single market. Contrary to the view that it would be best if the Southern European countries left the Eurozone first, the book makes the case that the optimal solution would be to start the process with the most competitive countries exiting first. The authors argue that a return to national currencies would be beneficial not only to the crisis-ridden southern countries, but also to France and Germany, which were the main promoters of the single currency. An organised unwinding of the Euro area would be beneficial both for the European economy and for Europe's main trading partners. The authors contend that to defend the Euro at all costs weakens the European economy and threatens the cohesion of the European Union. If pro-European and pro-market EU leaders do not dismantle the Eurozone, it will most likely be done by their anti-European and anti-market successors. If that happens, the European Union and the common market will be destroyed. This book will be a useful and engaging contribution to the existing literature in the fields of macro, monetary and international finance and economics\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Die EZB-Geldpolitik in der Zwickmühle
It seems clear that the ECB will raise interest rates in July 2022 and end its asset purchase program. This should send a strong and important signal to markets and economic players that the ECB continues to take its mandate for price stability seriously. However, it cannot be said with absolute certainty that these monetary policy decisions herald the start of a gradual tighter stance toward monetary policy normalisation. This is because economic uncertainty is currently extremely high. The ECB therefore finds itself in a difficult dilemma: It must take decisive action against high inflation, but should retain plenty of flexibility to be able to respond to a renewed crisis.
Journal Article
Financial integration in the European Monetary Union
\"This book introduces readers to the world of international financial markets and their integration on a global and regional scale. The author presents the theoretical and practical issues concerning the processes of financial market integration, with a particular focus on the monetary union. The empirical research results are based on econometric modelling, thus simplifying them for a non-specialist audience, who can instead concentrate on the author's conclusions, which comprise the results of these complicated research methods. The author outlines the role and functions of financial markets in the economy, in particular the relationship between financial intermediaries and financial markets and tackles the question of integration of new EU member countries' financial markets within the Eurozone. The integration of financial markets in an international context is inevitable and the author argues that we must learn how to benefit from it from in terms of economic growth. This book will be a valuable resource for students of economics and finance, particularly those studying financial management and international business and finance, as well as professionals in these fields. Further, this book will be of interest to anyone looking to discover more about the problems of globalization and the integration of financial markets in the modern economy\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
A Model of Safe Asset Determination
What makes an asset a “safe” asset? We study a model where two countries each issue sovereign bonds to satisfy investors’ safe asset demands. The countries differ in the float of their bonds and the fundamental resources available to rollover debts. A sovereign’s debt is safer if its fundamentals are strong relative to other possible safe assets, not merely strong on an absolute basis. If demand for safe assets is high, a large float enhances safety through a market depth benefit. If demand for safe assets is low, then large debt size is a negative as rollover risk looms large.
Journal Article
The Reform of the European Stability Mechanism: Process, Substance, and the Pandemic
The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) has been instrumental in safeguarding the financial stability of the Euro area and of its Member States. This article looks at the tumultuous process of reforming the ESM. It analyses the main changes that would be brought about by the draft revised ESM Treaty, whose text was agreed upon in June 2019 and finalized in December 2020. These concern the ESM’s purposes and operations; the procedure for granting stability support to a Euro area Member State; precautionary financial assistance instruments; single-limb collective action clauses; and the common backstop to the Single Resolution Fund. The focus then shifts to the changes agreed upon in response to the COVID-19 crisis. A new credit line has been introduced, the Pandemic Crisis Support, which builds on an existing instrument. It is argued that the reforms posited in the draft revised ESM Treaty would plug important gaps in the framework of the Economic and Monetary Union. Nevertheless, some of the ESM’s underlying vulnerabilities would remain, notably as regards its governance, the status of non-Euro area Member States, and the framework for its transparency and accountability. A more comprehensive reform could have taken place, which would have improved upon the overall structure of the Euro area.
European Stability Mechanism, ESM Treaty, ESM reform, Pandemic Crisis Support, European Monetary Fund, economic governance, accountability
Journal Article
Inflationsgefahr im Euroraum – wie gelingt eine sanfte Landung?
Whereas strong demand is a key factor driving high inflation in the US, inflation in the Euro Area is mainly due to adverse external supply shocks (in Europe, energy prices are much higher due to the war in Ukraine). Standard monetary policy response to such shocks is to accommodate first-round effects, to fight spiralling inflationary expectations in order to prevent second-round effects. Long run inflation expectations — as measured by the survey of professional forecasters — still seem to be well anchored. The ECB's announced tightening intends to dampen rising household's inflation expectations. Given the current high uncertainty about the economic outlook, a soft landing calls for modest, data-dependent steps, allowing for a reversal in case the outlook worsens.
Journal Article