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Projected changes in hot, dry and wet extreme events' clusters in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Concurrent extreme events, i.e. multi-variate extremes, can be associated with strong impacts. Hence, an understanding of how such events are changing in a warming climate is helpful to avoid some associated climate change impacts and better prepare for them. In this article, we analyse the projected occurrence of hot, dry, and wet extreme events' clusters in the multi-model ensemble of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Changes in 'extreme extremes', i.e. events with only 1% probability of occurrence in the current climate are analysed, first as univariate extremes, and then when co-occurring with other types of extremes (i.e. events clusters) within the same week, month or year. The projections are analysed for present-day climate (+1 °C) and different levels of additional global warming (+1.5 °C, +2 °C, +3 °C). The results reveal substantial risk of occurrence of extreme events' clusters of different types across the globe at higher global warming levels. Hotspot regions for hot and dry clusters are mainly found in Brazil, i.e. in the Northeast and the Amazon rain forest, the Mediterranean region, and Southern Africa. Hotspot regions for wet and hot clusters are found in tropical Africa but also in the Sahel region, Indonesia, and in mountainous regions such as the Andes and the Himalaya.
Journal Article
Childhood adversities and post-traumatic stress disorder: evidence for stress sensitisation in the World Mental Health Surveys
Although childhood adversities are known to predict increased risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after traumatic experiences, it is unclear whether this association varies by childhood adversity or traumatic experience types or by age.
To examine variation in associations of childhood adversities with PTSD according to childhood adversity types, traumatic experience types and life-course stage.
Epidemiological data were analysed from the World Mental Health Surveys (
= 27 017).
Four childhood adversities (physical and sexual abuse, neglect, parent psychopathology) were associated with similarly increased odds of PTSD following traumatic experiences (odds ratio (OR) = 1.8), whereas the other eight childhood adversities assessed did not predict PTSD. Childhood adversity-PTSD associations did not vary across traumatic experience types, but were stronger in childhood-adolescence and early-middle adulthood than later adulthood.
Childhood adversities are differentially associated with PTSD, with the strongest associations in childhood-adolescence and early-middle adulthood. Consistency of associations across traumatic experience types suggests that childhood adversities are associated with generalised vulnerability to PTSD following traumatic experiences.
Journal Article
Leveraging mega-event legacies
A multi-disciplinary contribution to the burgeoning literature on and around mega-events in general and sports mega-events in particular. The volume is not specifically about mega-events or their management, but rather how such events act as a lens through which a number of important and critical questions about the decisions to host, the host nation, its society and the politics of culture, sport and leisure more broadly can be dealt with. In doing so this book seeks to build on, and out from initial work on (sports) mega events by acknowledging the major shift towards 'emerging' states awarded such events since 2006 and incorporating the latest advances in research that have taken place in recent years.
Book
Associations between negative life experiences and the mental health of trans and gender diverse young people in Australia: findings from Trans Pathways
Trans and gender diverse (TGD) young people worldwide experience high rates of poor mental health; however, these rates were unknown in Australia. In addition, how negative life events affect the mental health of TGD young people has been largely unexplored.
This paper reports on novel mental health findings of Trans Pathways, the largest study ever conducted in Australia with trans (transgender) and gender diverse young people (N = 859; aged 14-25 years). The study was an anonymous online cross-sectional survey undertaken in 2016. Logistic and linear regression models were used to test associations between mental health outcomes and negative life experiences.
TGD young people in Australia experience high levels of mental distress, including self-harming (79.7%), suicidal thoughts (82.4%), and attempting suicide (48.1%). Three in four participants had been diagnosed with depression and/or anxiety (74.6% and 72.2%, respectively). Many TGD young people had been exposed to negative experiences such as peer rejection (89.0%), precarious accommodation (22.0%), bullying (74.0%), and discrimination (68.9%). Most poor mental health outcomes were associated with negative experiences. The strongest associations were found for precarious accommodation and issues within educational settings. For example, participants with a prior suicide attempt were almost six times more likely to have experienced issues with accommodation, including homelessness.
The current results highlight the urgent need for better mental health care and provide insight into areas for targeted mental health interventions. These findings are pertinent for clinicians working with trans young people and wider society.
Journal Article
The Rural Sport Event—The Atmosphere from the Participants’ Perspective
Rural sport events can play an important role in the sustainable development of rural areas, and bring various benefits. The atmosphere of a rural sport event covers the character and feeling of a place and situation. The aim of this article is to assess the impact of rural sport event atmosphere on participants. Research was conducted using the IPA method (Importance–Performance Analysis). On 22 January 2022, 127 respondents assessed the atmosphere of a running sport event—before the run defining “importance”, and after the run defining “performance” (a survey questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale was used). The research covers three groups of factors: event organization (rules and safety, management and hosting, sport competition class), relationships between participants (integration, sharing passion, ability to compete), and event place (attractiveness of the area, attractiveness of the sport competition place, and the will to return to the place). For both the “importance” and “performance” scales, the examined factors received high values (from 3.80 to 4.77). The conducted research shows that atmosphere is a key element when building a rural sport event. Satisfaction with a running event has a positive impact on the perception of the event and its atmospheric components.
Journal Article
Consistency in adult reporting of adverse childhood experiences
Many studies have used retrospective reports to assess the long-term consequences of early life stress. However, current individual characteristics and experiences may bias the recall of these reports. In particular, depressed mood may increase the likelihood of recall of negative experiences. The aim of the study was to assess whether specific factors are associated with consistency in the reporting of childhood adverse experiences.
The sample comprised 7466 adults from Canada's National Population Health Survey who had reported on seven childhood adverse experiences in 1994/1995 and 2006/2007. Logistic regression was used to explore differences between those who consistently reported adverse experiences and those whose reports were inconsistent.
Among those retrospectively reporting on childhood traumatic experiences in 1994/1995 and 2006/2007, 39% were inconsistent in their reports of these experiences. The development of depression, increasing levels of psychological distress, as well as increasing work and chronic stress were associated with an increasing likelihood of reporting a childhood adverse experience in 2006/2007 that had not been previously reported. Increases in mastery were associated with reduced likelihood of new reporting of a childhood adverse experience in 2006/2007. The development of depression and increases in chronic stress and psychological distress were also associated with reduced likelihood of 'forgetting' a previously reported event.
Concurrent mental health factors may influence the reporting of traumatic childhood experiences. Studies that use retrospective reporting to estimate associations between childhood adversity and adult outcomes associated with mental health may be biased.
Journal Article