Explore the vast range of titles available.

On 15 January 2022, Hunga Volcano in Tonga produced the most violent eruption in the modern satellite era, sending a water‐rich plume at least 58 km high. Using a combination of satellite‐ and ground‐based sensors, we investigate the astonishing rate of volcanic lightning (>2,600 flashes min−1) and what it reveals about the dynamics of the submarine eruption. In map view, lightning locations form radially expanding rings. We show that the initial lightning ring is co‐located with an internal gravity wave traveling >80 m s−1 in the stratospheric umbrella cloud. Buoyant oscillations of the plume's overshooting top generated the gravity waves, which enhanced turbulent particle interactions and triggered high‐current electrical discharges at unusually high altitudes. Our analysis attributes the intense lightning activity to an exceptional mass eruption rate (>5 × 109 kg s−1), rapidly expanding umbrella cloud, and entrainment of abundant seawater vaporized from magma‐water interaction at the submarine vent. Plain Language Summary The eruption of Tonga's underwater Hunga Volcano culminated on 15 January 2022 with a giant volcanic plume that rose out of the ocean and into the mesosphere. This plume created record‐breaking amounts of volcanic lightning observed both from space and by radio antennas on the ground thousands of kilometers away. We show that the eruption created more lightning than any storm yet documented on Earth, including supercells and tropical cyclones. The volcanic plume rose to its maximum height and expanded outward as an umbrella cloud, creating fast‐moving concentric ripples known as gravity waves, analogous to a rock dropped in a pond. Point locations of lightning flashes also expanded outward in a pattern of donut‐shaped rings, following the movement of these ripples. Optically bright lightning was detected at unusually high altitudes, in regions of the volcanic cloud 20–30 km above sea level. Our findings show that a sufficiently powerful volcanic plume can create its own weather system, sustaining the conditions for electrical activity at heights and rates not previously observed. Overall, remote detection of lightning contributed to a detailed timeline of this historic eruption and, more broadly, provides a valuable tool for monitoring and nowcasting hazards of explosive volcanism worldwide. Key Points This eruption produced the most intense lightning rates ever documented in Earth's atmosphere Lightning rings expand with enormous gravity waves in the umbrella cloud, caused by buoyant oscillation of the overshooting plume top Volcanic lightning and satellite analysis reveal at least four phases of eruptive activity from 02:57–15:12 UTC on 15 January 2022

Saltwater intrusion is a critical concern for coastal communities due to its impacts on fresh ecosystems and civil infrastructure. Declining recharge and rising sea level are the two dominant drivers of saltwater intrusion along the land‐ocean continuum, but there are currently no global estimates of future saltwater intrusion that synthesize these two spatially variable processes. Here, for the first time, we provide a novel assessment of global saltwater intrusion risk by integrating future recharge and sea level rise while considering the unique geology and topography of coastal regions. We show that nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100, with different dominant drivers. Climate‐driven changes in subsurface water replenishment (recharge) is responsible for the high‐magnitude cases of saltwater intrusion, whereas sea level rise and coastline migration are responsible for the global pervasiveness of saltwater intrusion and have a greater effect on low‐lying areas. Plain Language Summary Coastal watersheds around the globe are facing perilous changes to their freshwater systems. Driven by climatic changes in recharge and sea level working in tandem, sea water encroaches into coastal groundwater aquifers and consequently salinizes fresh groundwater, in a process called saltwater intrusion. To assess the vulnerability of coastal watersheds to future saltwater intrusion, we applied projections of sea level and groundwater recharge to a global analytical modeling framework. Nearly 77% of the global coast is expected to undergo measurable salinization by the year 2100. Changes in recharge have a greater effect on the magnitude of salinization, whereas sea level rise drives the widespread extensiveness of salinization around the global coast. Our results highlight the variable pressures of climate change on coastal regions and have implications for prioritizing management solutions. Key Points First global analysis of future saltwater intrusion vulnerability responding to spatially variable recharge and sea level rise is provided Recharge drives the extreme cases of saltwater intrusion, while sea level rise is responsible for its global pervasiveness Nearly 77% of global coastal areas below 60° north will undergo saltwater intrusion by 2100

The explosive activity of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption eludes pigeonholing into well‐defined eruption styles, with a variety of pyroclast ejection modes occurring both alternately and simultaneously at multiple vents. Visually, we defined four endmembers of explosive activity, referred to as fountaining, spattering, ash‐poor jets and ash‐rich jets. To capture the physical parameters of these activities, we deployed a camera array including one high‐speed camera and three high‐definition cameras in two field campaigns. Transitions between and fluctuations within activity occurred at the time scale of minutes to hours, likely driven by the same shallow conduit and vent processes controlling Strombolian activity at other volcanoes, but at higher gas and magma fluxes. From a physical standpoint, mean pyroclast rise velocity ranged 5–50 m/s, maximum ejection velocity 10–220 m/s, and sub‐second mass flux of lapilli to bomb‐sized pyroclasts at the vent 0.2–200 × 103 kg/s. The largest mass flux occurred during fountaining, which contributed by far more than other activities to cone building. All explosive activity exhibited well‐defined pyroclast ejection pulses, and we found a positive correlation between the occurrence rate of ejection pulses and maximum pyroclast ejection velocity. Despite orders of magnitude variations, physical parameters shift gradually with no boundary from one activity endmember to another. As such, attributing this explosive activity specifically to any currently defined style variations is arbitrary and potentially misleading. The highly variable explosive activity of the Tajogaite eruption recalls previous definitions of violent Strombolian eruptions, an eruption style whose pyroclast ejection dynamics, however, were so far largely undefined. Plain Language Summary The 2021 Tajogaite volcanic eruption offered a rare opportunity to study in detail the physical properties and the controlling factors of explosive activity driven by basaltic magmas. The activity lasted almost uninterrupted for almost 3 months and had visually different manifestations occurring simultaneously and alternating at different volcanic vents. To study the explosive activity, we used one high‐speed camera, taking short, slow motion videos, and three commercial grade high‐definition camcorders recording for many hours. We found that the activity changed in features and intensity at the time scale of minutes to hours, largely controlled by changes in the size and debris cover of the vent, magma viscosity, and magma flux and gas content. The ejection velocity of large volcanic particles ranged 5–220 m/s, with mean values around 10–50 m/s. The mass flux of particles erupted reached peaks of 200 metric tons per second. Particle ejection was never steady but always proceeded in pulses, which were more frequent if the ejection velocity was higher. Our measurements show that the current classification schemes for explosive eruptions of basaltic magmas do not adequately describe the activity of the Tajogaite eruption, which represents a type of eruption that was not yet measured in detail. Key Points High‐definition and high‐speed imaging record the velocity, size, and mass flux of pyroclasts Activity shifted in location, nature and vigor at the time scale of hours and progressed in ejection pulses at the time scale of seconds Physical parameters of explosive activity vary gradually between apparently different activity styles, without any clear boundary

We introduce a novel analytical expression that allows for fast assessment of mass flow rate of both vertically‐rising and bent‐over volcanic plumes as a function of their height, while first order physical insight is maintained. This relationship is compared with a one‐dimensional plume model to demonstrate its flexibility and then validated with observations of the 1980 Mount St. Helens and of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruptions. The influence of wind on the dynamics of volcanic plumes is quantified by a new dimensionless parameter (Π) and it is shown how even vertically‐rising plumes, such as the one associated with the Mount St. Helens 1980 eruption, can be significantly affected by strong wind. Comparison between a one‐dimensional model and the analytical equation gives anR2‐value of 0.88, while existing expressions give negativeR2‐values due to their inability to adapt to different source and atmospheric conditions. Therefore, this new expression has important implications both for current strategies of real‐time forecasting of ash transport in the atmosphere and for the characterization of explosive eruptions based on the study of tephra deposits. In addition, this work provides a framework for the application of more complete three‐dimensional numerical models as it greatly reduces the parameter space that needs to be explored. Key Points New analytical expression to derive mass flow rate of volcanic plumes New dimensionless parameter to assess influence of wind on plume height Examination of mass flow rates associated with two important eruptions

The 2022 Meradalir eruption at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, provided an opportunity to study mildly explosive volcanic activity of a mafic volcano using video analysis. During a field campaign from 10 to 14 August 2022, we recorded high-resolution videos of explosive activity during the cone-building phase of the eruption. We analyzed 30-min intervals on two days with differing eruptive intensities—12 August (high intensity) and 14 August (low intensity)—to quantify particle exit velocities, particle size distributions, and mass eruption rates. Our results show significant variability in eruptive intensity on short (seconds to minutes) to long (hours to days) timescales. Instantaneous mass eruption rates fluctuated between 10 2 and 10 5  kg/s, with average rates decreasing from 5.5 × 10 3  kg/s on 12 August to 6.7 × 10 2  kg/s on 14 August. Correspondingly, particle exit velocities decreased from a range of 4.7–37.7 m/s on 12 August to 3.5–27.2 m/s on 14 August. Maximum particle sizes decreased from − 12.7  Φ (6.7 m) to − 11.8  Φ (3.6 m) and median from − 10.7 Φ (1.7 m) to − 9.7 Φ (0.83). The sustained yet pulsating activity suggests a complex interplay between coupled and decoupled gas–magma flows within the conduit, characteristic of unsteady Hawaiian-style eruptions. High-resolution video analysis proved valuable in capturing fine-scale eruptive dynamics often obscured in field deposits. By providing detailed measurements of eruption source parameters, this approach enhances understanding of explosive mafic volcanism and contributes to improved hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies in volcanic regions.

The eruption of Hunga volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a higher plume and faster-growing umbrella cloud than has ever been previously recorded. The plume height exceeded 58 km, and the umbrella grew to 450 km in diameter within 50 min. Assuming an umbrella thickness of 10 km, this growth rate implied an average volume injection rate into the umbrella of 330–500 km 3 s −1 . Conventional relationships between plume height, umbrella-growth rate, and mass eruption rate suggest that this period of activity should have injected a few to several cubic kilometers of rock particles (tephra) into the plume. Yet tephra fall deposits on neighboring islands are only a few centimeters thick and can be reproduced using ash transport simulations with only 0.1–0.2 km 3 erupted volume (dense-rock equivalent). How could such a powerful eruption contain so little tephra? Here, we propose that seawater mixing at the vent boosted the plume height and umbrella growth rate. Using the one-dimensional (1-D) steady plume model Plumeria, we find that a plume fed by ~90% water vapor at a temperature of 100 °C (referred to here as steam) could have exceeded 50 km height while keeping the injection rate of solids low enough to be consistent with Hunga’s modest tephra-fall deposit volume. Steam is envisaged to rise from intense phreatomagmatic jets or pyroclastic density currents entering the ocean. Overall, the height and expansion rate of Hunga’s giant plume is consistent with the total mass of fall deposits plus underwater density current deposits, even though most of the erupted mass decoupled from the high plume. This example represents a class of high (> 10 km), ash-poor, steam-driven plumes, that also includes Kīlauea (2020) and Fukutoku-oka-no-ba (2021). Their height is driven by heat flux following well-established relations; however, most of the heat is contained in steam rather than particles. As a result, the heights of these water-rich plumes do not follow well-known relations with the mass eruption rate of tephra.

Severe convective storms are among the most dangerous weather phenomena and accurate forecasts mitigate their impacts. The recently released suite of AI‐based weather models produces medium‐range forecasts within seconds, with a skill similar to state‐of‐the‐art operational forecasts for variables on single levels. However, predicting severe thunderstorm environments requires accurate combinations of dynamic and thermodynamic variables and the vertical structure of the atmosphere. Advancing the assessment of AI‐models toward process‐based evaluations lays the foundation for hazard‐driven applications. We assess the forecast skill of the top‐performing AI‐models GraphCast, Pangu‐Weather and FourCastNet for convective parameters at lead‐times up to 10 days against reanalysis and ECMWF's operational numerical weather prediction model IFS. In a case study and seasonal analyses, we see the best performance by GraphCast and Pangu‐Weather: these models match or even exceed the performance of IFS for instability and shear. This opens opportunities for fast and inexpensive predictions of severe weather environments. Plain Language Summary Over the past year, several global AI‐based weather models were released and produce a similar quality of forecasts as traditional weather models. AI‐models are very fast and computationally cheap to produce forecasts. The evaluation of AI‐models has largely focused on single atmospheric variables at certain heights. To forecast specific phenomena, such as thunderstorms, a combination of variables must be accurate at multiple heights. Here we use the output of AI‐models to derive thunderstorm‐related ingredients. We compare 10‐day‐forecasts between the AI‐models GraphCast, Pangu‐Weather and FourCastNet and a state‐of‐the‐art traditional weather model while using a reanalysis data set as the reference. The example of a tornado outbreak in the southern United States shows that all models are capable of forecasting thunderstorm ingredients multiple days in advance. To obtain a robust assessment, we evaluate the entire thunderstorm season in 2020 in North America, Europe, Argentina, and Australia, where severe thunderstorms occur frequently. Two of the three AI‐models achieve similar or even better results than the traditional weather model while being much cheaper to operate computationally. Forecasting thunderstorm parameters directly, instead of calculating them afterward, is likely to produce even better results. This opens opportunities for rapid and accessible forecasts for severe thunderstorm phenomena. Key Points AI‐based global weather models produce forecasts with sufficient accuracy to derive instability and shear metrics skillfully The best AI‐based weather models are capable of competing with state‐of‐the‐art numerical weather predictions of instability and shear This is a major step toward computationally inexpensive and fast convective outlooks

Volcanic activity has been shown to affect Earth's climate in a myriad of ways. One such example is that eruptions proximate to surface ice will promote ice melting. In turn, the crustal unloading associated with melting an ice sheet affects the internal dynamics of the underlying magma plumbing system. Geochronologic data from the Andes over the last two glacial cycles suggest that glaciation and volcanism may interact via a positive feedback loop. At present, accurate sea‐level predictions hinge on our ability to forecast the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and thus require consideration of two‐way subglacial volcano‐deglaciation processes. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is particularly vulnerable to collapse, yet its position atop an active volcanic rift is seldom considered. Ice unloading deepens the zone of melting and alters the crustal stress field, impacting conditions for dike initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, the consequences for internal magma chamber dynamics and long‐term eruption behavior remain elusive. Given that unloading‐triggered volcanism in West Antarctica may contribute to the uncertainty of ice loss projections, we adapt a previously published thermomechanical magma chamber model and simulate a shrinking ice load through a prescribed lithostatic pressure decrease. We investigate the impacts of varying unloading scenarios on magma volatile partitioning and eruptive trajectory. Considering the removal of km‐thick ice sheets, we demonstrate that the rate of unloading influences the cumulative mass erupted and consequently the heat released into the ice. These findings provide fundamental insights into the complex volcano‐ice interactions in West Antarctica and other subglacial volcanic settings. Plain Language Summary In regions like West Antarctica, volcanic eruptions occur underneath ice sheets. When hot magma comes in contact with ice, it can accelerate the melting of the ice cover. Beyond this, as climate change causes ice sheets to shrink, the decreasing weight on a volcano may affect its likelihood of erupting. The effects of ice loss above volcanoes on the underlying volcanic activity are not well understood. We conducted computer simulations to explore how gradual ice loss affects magma stored in the Earth's crust. We find that volcanoes beneath shrinking ice sheets are sensitive to the rate at which the ice sheet shrinks. As the ice melts away, the reduced weight on the volcano allows the magma to expand, applying pressure upon the surrounding rock that may facilitate eruptions. Additionally, the reduced weight from the melting ice above also allows dissolved water and carbon dioxide to form gas bubbles, which causes pressure to build up in the magma chamber and may eventually trigger an eruption. Under these conditions, we find that the removal of an ice sheet above a volcano results in more abundant and larger eruptions, which may potentially hasten the melting of overlying ice through complex feedback mechanisms. Key Points During deglaciation, the evolution of a crustal magma chamber beneath kilometers of ice is sensitive to the rate at which ice is removed A critical rate of unloading can trigger additional eruption events Ice unloading expedites the onset of volatile exsolution, with consequences for magma chamber pressurization and eruption size

We studied four Quaternary volcanic phonolitic explosive edifices on Petite-Terre Island (Mayotte, Comoros Archipelago, Western Indian Ocean) to quantify magma fragmentation processes and eruptive dynamics. Petite-Terre explosive volcanism is the westernmost subaerial expression of a 60-km-long volcanic chain, whose eastern tip was the site of the 2018–2020 submarine eruption of the new Fani Maoré volcano. The persistence of deep seismic activity and magmatic degassing along the volcanic chain poses the question of a possible reactivation on land. Through geomorphology, stratigraphy, grain size, and componentry data, we show that Petite-Terre “maars” are actually tuff rings and tuff cones likely formed by several closely spaced eruptions. The eruptive sequences of each edifice are composed of thin (cm–dm), coarse, lithic-poor pumice fallout layers containing abundant ballistic clasts, and fine ash-rich deposits mostly emplaced by dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Deposits are composed of vesiculated, juvenile fragments (pumice clasts, dense clasts, and obsidian), and non-juvenile clasts (from older mafic scoria cones, coral reef, the volcanic shield of Mayotte, as well as occasional mantle xenoliths). We conclude that phonolitic magma ascended directly and rapidly from depth (around 17 km) and experienced a first, purely magmatic fragmentation, at depth (≈ 1 km in depth). The fragmented pyroclasts then underwent a second shallower hydromagmatic fragmentation when they interacted with water, producing fine ash and building the tuff rings and tuff cones.

Marine fallout ash beds can provide continuous, time‐precise records of highly explosive arc volcanism that can be linked with the climate record. An evaluation of revised Plio‐Pleistocene (0–4 Myr) tephrostratigraphies from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 881, 882, and 884 confirms cyclicity of the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism and a marked increase just after the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 2.73 Ma. The compositional constancy of the Kamchatka‐Kurile volcano‐magma systems through time points to external modulation of volcanic cyclicity and frequency. The stacked tephra record reveals periodic peaks in arc volcanicity at ∼0.3, ∼1.0, ∼1.6, ∼2.5, and ∼3.8 Myr that coincide with maxima of the global ice volume variability that have been linked with the amplitude modulation of the precession (0.3, 1.0 Myr) and obliquity (1.6, 2.5 and 3.8 Myr) bands. A simple model of a decreasing obliquity variance across the mid‐Pleistocene Transition at constant precession variance produces an excellent correlation of ash bed cycles with the variability of global benthic δ18O (r2 = 0.75), which implies that climate, and not direct orbital forcing, modulates Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism. The rising influence of precession variance in the Kamchatka‐Kurile ash bed record after the mid‐Pleistocene Transition contrasts with the dominant 100 kyr signal in the benthic δ18O global ice volume variability, which may either reflect limitations of the ash bed record or an regional rather than global influence of ice volume variability. Our results indicate that climate influences the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism, which may influence climate only by feedback. Plain Language Summary Volcanic ash and dust produced during catastrophic explosive volcanic eruptions, such as those of Mount Pinatubo or El Chichón, can cause short‐term global cooling on the scale of a few years. It has long been speculated whether the Earth's long‐term cooling over the past few million years has been augmented by an increase in explosive volcanism about 2.58 million years ago. In order to investigate causal links between the climate evolution and volcanism during the past 4 million years, we obtained a time‐precise and temporally highly resolved record of the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism from the centimeter‐thick ash beds that were embedded in marine sediments after large eruptions downwind the volcanic sources. When the ash bed record is compared to climate evolution, it clearly shows that explosive volcanic eruptions—regardless of their short‐term effects—do not contribute directly to the long‐term global cooling. Instead, the variations of the Earth's powerful climate system modulate these explosive volcanic eruptions, as the periodic waxing and waning of the large ice shields affect the magma‐producing systems deep in the Earth's interior. However, climate‐active gases and particles produced during periods with more vigorous arc volcanism may still enhance the ice cycles. Key Points Marine fallout ash beds record cyclicity and acceleration of the Plio‐Pleistocene (0–4 Myr) explosive Kamchatka‐Kurile arc volcanism Ash bed cyclicity correlates with the obliquity and precession variance of the global ice volume Climate, and not direct orbital forcing, modulates the Plio‐Pleistocene volcanicity of the Kamchatka‐Kurile arc