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NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY: AN INTERVAL METHOD TO UNCOVER EXPORT DYNAMICS – INSIGHTS FROM THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA
Purpose: This article introduces an innovative interval method to evaluate Armenia's export dynamics in uncertain economic contexts. Theoretical Framework: Focusing on export forecasts and interval forecasts, this research addresses the dynamic nature of economic processes, enhancing accuracy in assessing economic indicators during uncertainty. Methodology: We apply the interval approach to assess Armenia's exports, particularly in the EAEU market versus the global market. We analyze the effectiveness of export-oriented scenarios amid uncertainty. Findings: Our analysis shows that the EAEU market offers more favorable export growth compared to the global market during uncertainty. The interval method significantly improves forecast accuracy. We emphasize the importance of prioritizing trade relations with specific countries and the economic significance of finished product exports. Research, Practical & Social Implications: This research provides insights into Armenia's export-oriented growth prospects and offers a practical guide for policymakers. It underscores the significance of modernization, collaboration, and economic competitiveness, particularly in smaller economies. Originality/Value: This article introduces the interval method for export dynamics in Armenia. It adds value by advocating targeted trade strategies and emphasizing economic policy focused on finished product exports during uncertain times.
Journal Article
Africa's Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness: Do Institutions Matter?
This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence.
eBook