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This paper investigates trade firms' dynamics in the Via Padova neighbourhood at the end of 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed local economies and it has resulted in economic downturns, income inequalities and increased unemployment. While the current literature analyses widely its impacts on international trade, little attention has been given to the resilience of trade firms at the urban level. The containment measures to limit the pandemic have caused temporary closings of non-essential goods firms, while forcing other firms offering essential goods to stay open, albeit the many difficulties encountered. Since the Via Padova neighbourhood has one of the highest densities of trade firms in Milan, this makes it an interesting study area to test the effects associated with the containment measures. Exploring the data about trade firms' survival rates related to the period 2019-20 demonstrates a certain resilience of local firms. The number of firms closing down decreases in 2020, while the variation in the active ones tends to become insignificant compared with the previous year. The negative effects on non-essential goods firms persist during the first wave of the pandemic, whereas during the second wave essential goods firms are especially affected. These dynamics of resilience towards hostile economic and social conditions caused by the pandemic are a useful clue for reconsidering and developing new recovery policies.

Markups vary systematically across firms and are a source of misallocation. This paper develops a tractable model of firm dynamics where firms’ market power is endogenous and the distribution of markups emerges as an equilibrium outcome. Monopoly power is the result of a process of forward-looking, risky accumulation: firms invest in productivity growth to increase markups in their existing products but are stochastically replaced by more efficient competitors. Creative destruction therefore has procompetitive effects because faster churn gives firms less time to accumulate market power. In an application to firm-level data from Indonesia, the model predicts that, relative to the United States, misallocation is more severe and firms are substantially smaller. To explain these patterns, the model suggests an important role for frictions that prevent existing firms from entering new markets. Differences in entry costs for new firms are less important.

A growing body of evidence indicates that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic in recent years. This trend is evident in declining rates of gross job and worker flows as well as declining rates of entrepreneurship and young firm activity, and the trend is pervasive across industries, regions, and firm size classes. We describe the evidence on these changes in the U.S. economy by reviewing existing research. We then describe new empirical facts about the relationship between establishment-level productivity and employment growth, framing our results in terms of canonical models of firm dynamics and suggesting empirically testable potential explanations.

A large literature documents declining measures of business dynamism including high-growth young firm activity and job reallocation. A distinct literature describes a slowdown in the pace of aggregate labor productivity growth. We relate these patterns by studying changes in productivity growth from the late 1990s to the mid 2000s using firm-level data. We find that diminished allocative efficiency gains can account for the productivity slowdown in a manner that interacts with the within-firm productivity growth distribution. The evidence suggests that the decline in dynamism is reason for concern and sheds light on debates about the causes of slowing productivity growth.

How do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? We extend a Schumpeterian growth model with political connections that help firms ease bureaucratic and regulatory burden. The model highlights how political connections influence an economy’s business dynamism and innovation, and generates a number of implications guiding our empirical analysis. We construct a new large-scale data set for the period 1993–2014, on the universe of firms, workers, and politicians, complemented with corporate financial statements, patent data, and election data, so as to define connected firms as those employing local politicians. We identify a leadership paradox: market leaders are much more likely to be politically connected, but much less likely to innovate. Political connections relate to a higher rate of survival, as well as growth in employment and revenues, but not in productivity—a result that we also confirm using the regression discontinuity design. At the aggregate level, gains from political connections do not offset losses stemming from lower reallocation and growth.

Implementing the minimum wage (M.W.) regime leads to higher barriers to entry and the elimination of inefficient firms. This may be a key factor that affects the efficiency of Chinese firms' evolution and contributes to macroeconomic growth. Based on Chinese industrial enterprise and district M.W. data, we analyse the impact of China's M.W. regime on the evolution and behaviour of micro firms and the resulting macroeconomic effects from two aspects: a theoretical model and panel data regression. The results show that the M.W. regime increases firms' factor productivity significantly but leads to the immobility of incumbents, as it results in lower entry and exit probabilities. Total factor decomposition suggests that a M.W. regime improves regional economic efficiency via the growth effect. In addition, as capital intensity increases, a M.W. regime further boosts the growth in firms' productivity, but its positive effect on macroeconomic efficiency diminishes. The results help understand the underlying drivers of China's economic growth and offer important reference significance for rationalising labour policies.

Firms spend substantial resources on marketing and selling. Interpreting this as evidence of frictions in product markets, which require firms to spend resources on customer acquisition, this article develops a search theoretic model of firm dynamics in frictional product markets. Introducing search frictions generates long-term customer relationships, rendering the customer base a state variable for firms, which is sluggish to adjust. This affects: the level and volatility of firm investment, profits, value, sales and markups, the timing of firm responses to shocks, and the relationship between investment and Tobin's q. We document support for these predictions in firm-level data from Compustat, using cross-industry variation in selling expenses to quantify differences in the degree of friction across markets.

I study the effect of labor market imperfections on the labor share in a tractable model that emphasizes the interaction between productivity dispersion and firm competition for workers. I calibrate the model using administrative data covering the universe of firms in Canada from 2000 to 2015. As in the data, most firms have a high labor share, yet the aggregate labor share is low due to the disproportionate effect of a small fraction of large, highly productive firms. I find that a rise in the dispersion of firm productivity causes the aggregate labor share to decline in favor of firm profits. The mechanism is that productivity dispersion effectively shields high-productivity firms from wage competition. Regression evidence from cross-country and cross-industry data supports both the model prediction and mechanism.

This article develops a heterogeneous firm-dynamics model to jointly study firms’ currency debt composition and investment choices. In our model, foreign currency borrowing arises from a dynamic trade-off between exposure to currency risk and growth. The model endogenously generates selection of productive firms into foreign currency borrowing. Among them, firms with high marginal product of capital use foreign loans more intensively. We assess econometrically the model’s predicted pattern of foreign currency borrowing using firm-level census data from the deregulation of these loans in Hungary, calibrate the model, and quantify the aggregate impact of this financing. Our counterfactual exercises show that understanding the characteristics of firms borrowing in foreign currency is critical to assess the aggregate consequences of this financing.

Using an annual panel of US states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real GDP, productivity, and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a “missing generation” of firms affects productivity persistently.