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PurposeThe shortage of agricultural water from freshwater sources is a growing concern because of the relatively large amounts needed to sustain food production for an increasing population. In this context, an impact assessment methodology is indispensable for the identification and assessment of the potential consequences of freshwater consumption in relation to agricultural water scarcity. This paper reports on the consistent development of midpoint and endpoint characterisation factors (CFs) for assessing these impacts.MethodsMidpoint characterisation factors focus specifically on shortages in food production resulting from agricultural water scarcity. These were calculated by incorporating country-specific compensation factors for physical availability of water resources and socio-economic capacity in relation to the irrigation water demand for agriculture. At the endpoint, to reflect the more complex impact pathways from food production losses to malnutrition damage from agricultural water scarcity, international food trade relationships and economic adaptation capacity were integrated in the modelling with measures of nutritional vulnerability for each country.Results and discussionThe inter-country variances of CFs at the midpoint revealed by this study were larger than those derived using previously developed methods, which did not integrate compensation processes by food stocks. At the endpoint level, both national and trade-induced damage through international trade were quantified and visualised. Distribution of malnutrition damage was also determined by production and trade balances for commodity groups in water-consuming countries, as well as dependency on import ratios for importer countries and economic adaptation capacity in each country. By incorporating the complex relationships between these factors, estimated malnutrition damage due to freshwater consumption at the country scale showed good correlation with total reported nutritional deficiency damage.ConclusionsThe model allows the establishment of consistent CFs at the midpoint and endpoint for agricultural water scarcity resulting from freshwater consumption. The complex relationships between food production supply and nutrition damage can be described by considering the physical and socio-economic parameters used in this study. Developed CFs contribute to a better assessment of the potential impacts associated with freshwater consumption in global supply chains and to life cycle assessment and water footprint assessments.

Animals resolve conflicts over the share of resources by competing physically or signalling motivation with honest signals of need. In some species, young siblings vocally signal to each other their hunger level and the most vocal individual deters its siblings from competing for the non-divisible food item delivered at the next parental visit. This so-called sibling negotiation for forthcoming food has been studied only in this context. It therefore remains unclear whether siblings could also negotiate access to a pool of divisible resources, a situation that is similar to a group of individuals competing for an accessible food resource. To tackle this issue, we placed barn owl (Tyto alba) nestlings singly in artificial nests containing several mice, and we simulated the presence of a sibling calling at low or high rate using playback experiments. If nestling barn owls vocally negotiate over a divisible food stock, we propose the following two predictions. First, nestlings would vocally signal before eating from this stock of food, and second, numerous playback vocalizations would inhibit feeding. Accordingly, singleton nestlings vocalized just before consuming food stored in their artificial nest and they delayed the consumption of the food stock if hearing many playback calls. The production of such food-associated vocalizations has been observed in foraging adults in various birds and mammals, but never in young animals and when resource is divisible and easily accessible. Our study raises the possibility that vocal communication could evolve in a variety of competitive contexts. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: We present here the first experimental evidence that sibling barn owls use food-associated vocalizations to compete over the preys stored in the nest. Owlets emit calls just before consuming an available food item and broadcasting calls induces nestlings to temporarily refrain from eating from the food stock. This raises the possibility that vocal communication can mediate the share of a food stock accessible to all competitors.

Purpose Weddings in India have become more extravagant in recent years. The ostentation goes well with the food also. Hundreds of varieties and great stock of food served making it a wasteful affair which would lead to the unsustainable demand for the natural resources. The purpose of this paper is to link the stock-induced consumption phenomenon with food waste generation in Indian weddings. Design/methodology/approach This study begins with the identification of the factors which would be responsible to make the food consumption stock-induced. A system dynamics (SD) model is developed using SD software STELLA (version 10.0) to assess the amount of stock-induced food waste. The impact of the factors on this waste is analyzed and estimation is made about the financial implications of this waste. Different scenarios have been analyzed to arrive at a most desirable scenario in the Indian context. Finally, the paper provides the recommendations for managerial implications to prevent the potential disastrous consequences of this waste. Findings A rigorous simulation analysis was conducted for different food-serving scenarios. The outcome of SD analysis shows that an enormous amount of food is wasted in the form of stock-induced consumption and dustbin waste. Impact analysis of factors on waste generation reveals that food wastage in marriages is entirely a behavioral phenomenon and can be controlled by exercising self and enforced behavioral control measures. Waste cost estimation gives an insight about the severity of the topic for policy making. Social implications The study has a very high social relevance and facilitates decision makers to take required actions to mitigate the stock-induced food waste in marriages. The study conducted will encourage the researchers to use SD in analyzing complex systems for quantitative estimations. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes the food waste in Indian weddings in relation with the huge stock served using SD. The study provides valuable insights in the direction to make the country food secure.

Seasonal hunger induced by agricultural seasonality is often a characteristic feature of rural poverty. The evidence of seasonal distress in many agrarian societies can be found in the narratives of economic historians. With agricultural diversification made possible through technological breakthroughs in many parts of the developing world, the severity of seasonal stress and adversities has been reduced considerably, if not altogether eliminated. In certain agricultural settings, however, the seasonality of poverty and hunger, along with the associated seasonal shortfalls in income and consumption, is still a policy quagmire. The problem gets more complicated when agricultural seasonality is locked into a cycle of endemic poverty, seasonal hunger, and risk of further impoverishment. Poverty and seasonality may also reinforce each other through various other forces that create and sustain both. The thrust of policy needs to be to break this interlocking cycle of poverty and seasonality. The book has nine chapters. Chapter two looks at the key conceptual issues and presents a global perspective on the challenge of addressing seasonal hunger. Chapter three brings Bangladesh's reality to the fore regarding seasonal poverty and food insecurity and the vulnerability of the northwest region. Chapter four analyzes the vulnerability of households to seasonal hunger, their coping strategies, and the extent to which income seasonality affects seasonal poverty and food deprivation. Chapter five reports some findings for both the Rangpur region and the country as a whole regarding the effects of policies and programs on poverty and food deprivation. The findings reported in the next three chapters are mainly related to the Rangpur region only. Chapter six examines the issue of seasonal migration in the context of mitigating seasonal deprivation. In chapter seven, the impact of the social safety-net programs is tested, whereas the effectiveness of microfinance is assessed in chapter eight. The concluding chapter, chapter nine, looks at the policy implications while also pointing to some emerging challenges.

The spike in global food prices in 2008 led to significantly higher food prices across the developing world. Global commodity prices have since fallen but remain volatile, and local food prices remain high in many countries. The authors review the evidence on the potential impact of higher food prices on poverty, focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and examine the extent to which policy responses are able to protect the poor. They show that rising food prices are likely to lead to higher poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa as the negative impact on net consumers outweighs the benefits to producers. A recent survey shows that the most common policy response in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2008 was reducing taxes on food, while outside the region subsidies were the most popular measure. Sub-Saharan African countries also have a higher prevalence of food-based safety net programs, some of which were scaled up to respond to rising prices. The review suggests that the benefits from reducing import tariffs on staples are likely to accrue largely to the nonpoor. Safety net programs can be more effective, but geographic targeting and other investments to strengthen safety nets are necessary to ensure that fewer people are affected by future crises.

The food crisis of 2007-2008 led to a renewed interest in public stockholdings for food security purposes. Stock acquisition for food security is constrained by WTO rules. Developing countries petitioned the WTO to remove the constraint. The negotiations over stockholding subsidies have been acrimonious and confrontational. A peace clause is in effect while a permanent solution is sought. Opponents to expanding stockholdings argue that market induced trade can maintain food security. This research finds, for major cereal crops, that a market response should not be relied upon. Developing countries require policy options to maintain food security - one of which is stockholdings.

The paper analyses the main factors influencing global sugar supply and demand. The main determinants of global sugar supply, demand and price development are identified and then their influence on selected variables is quantified. The analysis of main determinants' influence on global supply, demand and price development is conducted on the base of selected time series including data for the period 1961-2010. The relations are quantified using the regression analysis (power function). The results of the analysis show that among the significant determinants (they are significant from both economic and statistical point of view) of sugar supply are reserves, sugar price in previous period and sugar cane production. The main determinants of global sugar demand are sugar price and GDP (for the purpose of the analysis we took into consideration global GDP and global GDP/cap). Individual determinants of global sugar price are also defined but the quantitative analysis proves that the only significant determinant of global sugar price development is sugar price in previous period.

World price shocks and disruptions in international cereal trade in 2007 and 2008 caused considerable anxiety and hardship for food importing countries throughout the world. In South Asia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India were all affected by these movements in international prices, though the effects on domestic prices in each case was mitigated or exacerbated by each country's own trade policies, as well as the trade policies of its neighbours. This paper reviews domestic and international trade policies in South Asia in recent years and argues that liberalised international trade still provides the best mechanism for stabilising prices and food supplies in most years. Nonetheless, appropriate contingency policies still are needed for years in which international prices are extraordinarily high. More explicit commitments to cereal trade liberalisation within South Asia would also promote region-wide food security and help avoid a repetition of export supply disruptions by India that contributed to sharp rises in food prices in Bangladesh, and similar restrictions by Pakistan that contributed to food price increases in Afghanistan.

The study provides new and robust evidence to the relationship between stock and food markets in terms of shock and volatility spillovers and dependence structure by focusing on the importance of taking into account structural breaks. The results reveal that variance shifts are correctly detected, and that considering them affects volatility persistence, removes return spillovers, and gives rise to significant shock and volatility transmission. They also provide interesting evidence that stock and food markets are weakly dependent, particularly during the 2007-2009 financial crisis period, thereby showing that portfolio diversification benefits could be exploited between the two types of markets, especially over times of heavy financial market fluctuations. Additionally, the findings put forward a substitution mechanism across food classes, given the similarity of the weak correlations for all commodities regardless of the model specification. The study illustrates relevant implications in terms of optimal portfolio allocation and risk minimizing hedge ratio, and allows international investors and market participants to understand properly the shock and volatility transmission across markets and intermarket correlations in order to make sound decisions.

Many natural scientists see the degrading of the environment caused by overexploitation of the resources, as the cause of famine and poverty in Africa. On the basis of this, environmental-restoration policies are formulated. This article analyzes the main causes of famine, drought, desertification, the food market, with examples from the 1984/85 famine in the Sudan. The food security situation is scrutinized from both a natural and a societal point of view. The close connection between climatic variations and food production and the myth of desertification are demonstrated. The role of a malfunctioning market, in combination with an unjust credit system, in causing the famine is also demonstrated. While crop production gave only half the normal yield, prices increased five to sixfold. In order to find solutions to prevent a return to the 1984/85 situation in the Sudan, the idea of a degrading environment must be abandoned in favor of a more profound analysis of the interrelations between the atmosphere, the biosphere and society.