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Deteriorating nature experienced in the level of economic activities in Nigeria is evident in most sectors of the economy, including the tourism sector. But there is a need to develop the tourism industry because of its potentials for job creation, and the Nigerian government should make vital efforts to diversify the economy from oil production to other viable sectors in order to create wealth for the nation. Against this backdrop, this study examined the interaction effect of tourism and foreign exchange earnings from the tourism industry on economic growth in Nigeria. The study engaged time series data sourced from the World Development Indicators for the period 1980–2016 and employed the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and Johansen cointegration econometric technique of analysis. The empirical results from the FMOLS showed that revenue generated from tourism have a significant and positive effect on Nigeria’s economic growth; the interaction effect of tourism and foreign exchange earnings on economic growth in Nigeria is positive which implies that an increase in the tourism and foreign exchange earnings will lead to an increase in economic growth. Thus, based on these findings, the study recommended that as a matter of priority, the Nigerian government should encourage diversification through tourism promotion to achieve the desired level of economic growth and ensure that foreign exchange earnings from tourism transmits to the improvement of amusement parks and recreational centres which will significantly open new opportunities for tourism patronage and hence boost economic growth.

This paper studies a quantile regression spatial dynamic Durbin panel data (SDDPD) model with fixed effects. Conventional fixed effects estimators of quantile regression specification are usually biased in the presentation of lagged response variables in spatial and time as regressors. To reduce this bias, we propose the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimator with lagged covariates in spatial and time as instruments. Under some regular conditions, the consistency and asymptotic normalityof the estimators are derived. Monte Carlo simulations show that our estimators not only perform well in finite sample cases at different quantiles but also have robustness for different spatial weights matrices and for different disturbance term distributions. The proposed method is used to analyze the influencing factors of international tourism foreign exchange earnings of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2017.

The Venezuelan Bolivar is pegged to the U.S. dollar and supported by foreign exchange restrictions. To assess the appropriateness of the peg during the current period of high oil export earnings and the likely consequences of a liberalization, this paper attempts to disentangle the effects of oil prices from other factors underlying the equilibrium real exchange rate, and examines the role of foreign exchange controls by extending the application of a vector error correction (VEC) model to parallel market exchange rates. Several findings are worth noting. First, oil prices have indeed played a significant role in determining a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate path. Second, oil prices are not the only important determinant of the real effective exchange rate: declining productivity is also a key factor. Third, appreciation pressures are rising. Finally, the speed of convergence of a VEC model using parallel rather than official rates is higher, suggesting that the government has been able to maintain sharp deviations between the official and equilibrium rates because of Venezuela's oil dependency and the concentration of oil income in government hands.

This paper investigates the likely implications of declining oil production on Yemen's equilibrium exchange rate, and discusses policy options to ensure a smooth transition to a nonoil economy. The empirical results suggest that, as oil production and foreign exchange earnings fall, the Yemeni rial will have to adjust downward in real effective terms to keep pace with the equilibrium exchange rate. In light of strong pass-through from exchange rate depreciation to domestic inflation, this could entail a substantial depreciation in nominal terms. Given the nature of the adjustment, a floating exchange rate regime appears to be the best option, if supported by appropriate macroeconomic policies. However, given public fixation on a exchange rate stability, a softly managed float would be a better option for Yemen whereby the central bank may have to lead the market toward the equilibrium exchange rate.

This paper describes potential benefits from Canada's expanding oil sands production, higher energy exports, and further improvements in the terms of trade. Contrary to the previous Canadian exchange rate literature, this paper finds that both energy and nonenergy commodity prices have an influence on the Canadian dollar, and some upward pressure on the exchange rate would therefore be expected. Model results suggest, however, that the impact on other tradable goods exports is limited.

Prepared by the Policy Wing of the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic performance and short-term prospects of the 44 countries covered by the Department. Topics examined in recent volumes include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements, macroeconomic implications of scaled-up aid, financial sector development, and fiscal decentralization. Detailed country data, grouped by oil-exporting and -importing countries and by subregion, are provided in an appendix and a statistical appendix, and a list of relevant publications by the African Department is included.

Cotton is a rare economic success story in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the continent's share of the world's agricultural trade fell by about half from 1980 to 2005, its share of world cotton exports more than doubled. Cotton is a major source of foreign exchange earnings in more than 15 countries of the continent and is a crucial source of income for millions of rural people. 'Organization and Performance of Cotton Sectors in Africa' provides an in-depth comparative analysis of the outcomes of the reforms that have been implemented in Sub-Saharan cotton sectors and of the linkages between sector organization and performance. The book highlights challenges facing cotton sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrates how reform in the sectors is the key to sustaining growth, improving competitiveness and reducing rural poverty. It provides national and regional policy makers with a number of recommendations based upon the observable lessons of past reform programs.