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The Daxing’anling Mountains are vulnerable to extreme weather and ecological degradation. Forests in this region have been substantially affected by extreme events; however, the pattern of future forest change remains uncertain. To determine the trends and reasons for extreme climate change, reanalysis data were used to assess the potential forest degradation resulting from future extreme climate events. Using tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica (1952-2015) and Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen (1962-2015), we performed a comparative analysis of the relationships between radial growth of these two tree species and extreme indices based on Pearson correlations. The functions between extreme climate and tree ring width were then used in the LASSO algorithm. Using the CMIP6 models under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), we projected the tree ring width of the two species from 2015 to 2100 using calibrated meteorological fields. The tree-ring chronologies of both species were correlated negatively with extreme warm temperature indices and positively with extreme precipitation indices. P. sylvestris responded more significantly to extremely high temperature indices and precipitation, with a certain lag effect. L. gmelinii responded significantly to extremely cold temperature indices. Tree species specificity may explain why the two species show different growth–climate relationships. The growth of P. sylvestris may decrease during extreme climate change conditions, whereas the effect on L. gmelinii future growth is not significant. The predicted growth series in the 2015–2100 period showed that three abnormally high values, six abnormally low values, and one extreme abnormally low value occurred in P. sylvestris, whereas there were two extreme abnormally low values, four abnormally low values, and four abnormally high values in L. gmelinii. Our findings can help predict the resilience and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the face of extreme climate change and contribute to forest management strategies.

Background: permanent molar (M3) formation, morphology, and agenesis vary greatly between individuals. This study examines how removing the lower first permanent molar affects the position and angle of the developing third molar in 7- to 10-year-olds. Method: Radiographs of Two groups from southern Iraq were identified: those who had one or more first permanent molars extracted between ages 7 and 10 and those who did not. Both groups had panoramic radiographs taken at 8.5 and 10 years before extraction. 80 third molars were extracted, and 50 had retained first permanent molars. Comparing groups used independent sample tests. Results: The third molar moved significantly more mesially in the group of extraction (P <0.05), and the angle righted itself significantly more in the group of extraction than it did in the group of non-extraction (P <0.05). Both of these results were significantly different from what was seen in the group of non-extraction. These two findings presented a striking contrast to the findings obtained from the control group that did not undergo extraction. When it came to the movement of the third molar downward, there's not a statistical significant difference between two groups in terms of a vertical movement of the 3rd molar. Conclusion: An extraction of the lower first permanent molar encouraged mesial movement and up righting of the developing third molar while the dentition was still in the process of developing. Because of this, the probability of the third molar erupting in the future may increase.

A Development Emergency: the title of this year's Global Monitoring Report, the sixth in an annual series, could not be more apt. The global economic crisis, the most severe since the Great Depression, is rapidly turning into a human and development crisis. No region is immune. The poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they have the least cushion to withstand events. The crisis, coming on the heels of the food and fuel crises, poses serious threats to their hard-won gains in boosting economic growth and reducing poverty. It is pushing millions back into poverty and putting at risk the very survival of many. The prospect of reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, already a cause for serious concern, now looks even more distant. A global crisis must be met with a global response. The crisis began in the financial markets of developed countries, so the first order of business must be to stabilize these markets and counter the recession that the financial turmoil has triggered. At the same time, strong and urgent actions are needed to counter the impact of the crisis on developing countries and help them restore strong growth while protecting the poor. Global Monitoring Report 2009, prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, provides a development perspective on the global economic crisis. It assesses the impact on developing countries, their growth, poverty reduction, and other MDGs. And it sets out priorities for policy response, both by developing countries themselves and by the international community. This report also focuses on the ways in which the private sector can be better mobilized in support of development goals, especially in the aftermath of the crisis.

This study investigates the relationship between the aggregate of accounting earnings and the future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) differentiating between developed and developing countries. This study employs data on Asian, African, and Pacific countries along with their capital market in the period of 1989-2015. More specifically, it investigates the informativeness of aggregate accounting earnings as a predictor of macroeconomic growth. It finds evidence that the aggregate of accounting earnings is a predictor of future GDP growth. It also shows that the informativeness of accounting earnings aggregate is not only for the capital market’s level but also the macroeconomic level. This study argues that the informativeness of accounting earnings can be used to predict the macroeconomy, but only for those developed countries whose earnings growth is positive. On the contrary, this study suggests that the aggregate of accounting earnings in Asian and African developing countries cannot be used to predict future GDP growth. In other words, the aggregate of accounting earnings from developing countries does not contain similar properties for predicting future GDP growth as compared to those in developed countries.

General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find that adjusting for intangibles related to computer hardware and software yields a TFP level that is 15.9 percent higher than official measures by the end of 2017.

What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO₂ emissions lead to catastrophic changes in climate and human systems? Have we depleted the store of potential great inventions? Will the aging society lead to diminished innovativeness?

The scope of this study is the optimal siting and sizing of distributed generation within a power distribution network considering uncertainties. A probabilistic power flow (PPF)-embedded genetic algorithm (GA)-based approach is proposed in order to solve the optimisation problem that is modelled mathematically under a chance constrained programming framework. Point estimate method (PEM) is proposed for the solution of the involved PPF problem. The uncertainties considered include: (i) the future load growth in the power distribution system, (ii) the wind generation, (iii) the output power of photovoltaics, (iv) the fuel costs and (v) the electricity prices. Based on some candidate schemes of different distributed generation types and sizes, placed on specific candidate buses of the network, GA is applied in order to find the optimal plan. The proposed GA with embedded PEM (GA–PEM) is applied on the IEEE 33-bus network by considering several scenarios and is compared with the method of GA with embedded Monte Carlo simulation (GA–MCS). The main conclusions of this comparison are: (i) the proposed GA–PEM is seven times faster than GA–MCS, and (ii) both methods provide almost identical results.

In this last paper in a series of four, we will enquire into key developments affecting economic growth in the near future, consider potential restructuring effects that current and future economic events could cause and survey suggestions from literature for long-term sustainability of growth trends. Discussing climate change, COVID-19 economic recovery, automation, and future growth with a view to global development, we explore where growth may take economies, and how we may foster growth in a rapidly changing international economic landscape.

In this paper, we review the literature on declining business dynamism and its implications in the United States and propose a unifying theory to analyze the symptoms and the potential causes of this decline. We first highlight 10 pronounced stylized facts related to declining business dynamism documented in the literature and discuss some of the existing attempts to explain them. We then describe a theoretical framework of endogenous markups, innovation, and competition that can potentially speak to all of these facts jointly. We next explore some theoretical predictions of this framework, which are shaped by two interacting forces: a composition effect that determines the market concentration and an incentive effect that determines how firms respond to a given concentration in the economy. The results highlight that a decline in knowledge diffusion between frontier and laggard firms could be a significant driver of empirical trends observed in the data. This study emphasizes the potential of growth theory for the analysis of factors behind declining business dynamism and the need for further investigation in this direction.

China is now the world's fourth largest economy and growing very fast. India's economic salience is also on the rise. Together these two countries will profoundly influence the pace and nature of global economic change. This volume analyzes this rapid future development and examines how their growth will impact upon other countries.