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The realisation rates of short-term childbearing intentions are known to be consistently lower in post-socialist countries than in the rest of Europe. However, the East–West differences in the outcomes of intentions to postpone or forego (further) childbearing have not been previously examined. We employ two panel waves of the Generations and Gender Survey in six countries (three from Eastern and three from Western Europe), and, based on the short- and long-term fertility intentions expressed by respondents at the first survey wave, we classify the births occurring between two waves as intended, sooner-than-intended, or unintended. We find that in our study population of non-teenage respondents who had the same partner at both survey waves and a child between the two survey waves, between around 10% (Western European countries) and 30% (Eastern European countries) experienced an unintended or a sooner-than-intended birth. The East–West divide is largely driven by the share of unintended parents which is clearly higher in the post-socialist countries. However, the geographical pattern fades away once we control for the anticipated costs of having a child. Our study gives insight into East–West differences in attitudes to childbearing and into how they affect reproductive behaviour. It also offers methodological improvements of cross-national panel surveys designed to examine childbearing intentions that would allow for a more accurate assessment of childbearing intendedness.

The use of fertility intention questions to study individual childbearing behaviour has developed rapidly in recent decades. In Europe, the Generations and Gender Surveys are the main sources of cross-national data on fertility intentions and their realisation. This study investigates how an inconsistent implementation of a question about wanting a child now affects the cross-country comparability of intentions to have a child within the next three years and their realisation. We conduct our analysis separately for women and men at prime and late reproductive ages in Austria, France, Italy and Poland. The results show that the overall share of respondents intending to have a child at some point in their life is similar in all four analysed countries. However, once the time horizon and the degree of certainty of fertility intentions are included, substantial cross-country differences appear, particularly in terms of proceptive behaviour and, consequently, the realisation of fertility intentions. We conclude that the inconsistent questionnaire adaptation makes it very difficult to assess the role of country context in the realisation of childbearing intentions.

Objective: This study examines whether the impact of husbands' involvement in childcare and housework on wives' fertility intentions varies by wives' education in Taiwan. Background: Recent research has pointed to the positive influence of a more egalitarian division of labor on wives' fertility intentions, yet existing literature often fails to examine educational variations in such linkages. Method: This paper analyzed reports of time spent on domestic work (i.e., housework and childcare) for both spouses in the 2016 Women's Marriage, Fertility, and Employment Survey. The analytical sample included all married respondents with at least one child. Regression models and counterfactual analyses were adopted. Results: The findings showed that husbands of tertiary-educated wives shared more housework and childcare. Furthermore, wives' fertility intentions beyond parity-one increased with more input from husbands in helping with childcare, but not housework sharing. This positive childcare-sharing effect was particularly salient among tertiary-educated wives—who tended to be more economically empowered and to have higher expectations for gender equality at home. Finally, counterfactual analyses using a propensity score matching method indicated that non-tertiary-educated wives would not increase their fertility intentions even if they had received more help from husbands. Conclusion: Such educational variations have been little explored in past theory and research. Pro-natalist policies aiming to boost fertility will likely attain optimal effectiveness if different combinations of parental-leave and financial aid packages are offered to women with varying education. This study also contributes to the limited research on how division of labor affects fertility intentions in East Asia.

This study investigates the relationship between childcare usage and parents’ intentions to have a second child in Belarus. Previous research has established that low fertility in Belarus can be primarily explained by falling second birth rates. However, a substantial research gap remains regarding the determinants of the low rate of second childbearing in Belarus. Based on a comprehensive review of hypothesised fertility barriers and family policy options in Belarus, this study leverages data from the Belarusian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) from 2017 to examine the relationship between formal, informal, and mixed childcare usage and parents’ intention to have a second child. The analysis is based on fertile individuals aged 18–45 who have a partner and one biological child under 11 years old (i.e., up to the age at which children leave primary school). The model controls for sex, age, education, respondents’ economic wellbeing, the employment status of both partners, and the age of their child. Applying logistic regression, the analysis demonstrates that mixed childcare support increases respondents’ intentions to have an additional child. Having a child aged 3–6 years, being below 26 years old and male, are also associated with a higher likelihood of intentions to have a second child. No association was found between economic wellbeing or employment status and second‐parity fertility intentions. The results of this study suggest that gender‐egalitarian family policy instruments that improve institutional childcare and that incentivise men to participate in childcare could reduce barriers to second childbearing in Belarus.

The articles in this special issue report about research carried out in a project with the same title as this introductory article (acronym FERTINT). This introduction starts with a brief description of the “fertility gap”. It outlines its deficiencies when used for policy implications and the advantages of using fertility intentions. It also summarises the broad scope of issues related to intentions as presented in the articles: life-time and short-time fertility intentions and their realisation or frustration, the effect of uncertainty on intentions, the relevance of the theories of planned behaviour and fertility preferences and of social networks for studying couples’ and competing intentions.

With the adjustment of China’s fertility policy, the topic of women’s fertility has attracted much attention. In particular, urban women face a difficult choice between family and work. This study analyzed the prevalence and determinants of second-child fertility intention among urban women in China and aimed to provide evidence for improving fertility rate measures. A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted using quantitative primary studies. We identified 16 cross-sectional studies that investigated a total of 24,979 urban women. The prevalence of second-child fertility intentions was 37%. A subgroup analysis revealed that the highest prevalence was observed between 2016 and 2017, and the lowest was observed in first-tier cities. Meta-analyses indicated that 18 factors were significantly associated with second-child fertility intentions, including demographic factors, fertility attitude, husbands, children, parents, or others. The findings of this study highlight the low second-child fertility intentions among urban women in China. Therefore, policymakers should consider various aspects, gradually optimizing fertility-supporting facilities, while encouraging fertility.

Background The low birth rates and rapid population aging has drawn considerable attention from scholars and policymakers in China and around the world. In 2021, China launched the policy and supportive measures that allow up to 3 children per couple. This study aims to explore the influencing factors of the third-child fertility intention among women aged 20–34 years in China. Methods We draw data from the National Fertility Survey conducted in 2017. The nationally representative survey adopts a stratified, 3-stage, and probabilities proportional to size sampling method. A total of 61,588 valid samples aged 20–34 years old were obtained. Fertility desire and behavior, childbearing and service use, and potential influencing factors of fertility intention such as the history of pregnancy were assessed. Results In general, 5.01% of Chinese women of prime childbearing age had fertility intention for a third child, and the proportion varies by region across mainland China. Individual characteristics such as being ethnic minorities, being rural residents, and having more siblings are significantly positively correlated with the third-child fertility intention, while the intention was significantly lower among women with a higher income or education level, migrant women, and those engaged in the non-agricultural labor force. Women who already had a son had lower fertility intention for a third child. Moreover, it was the perceived acceptable costs of childcare services rather than the actual costs that mattered more for the fertility intention. Conclusions Our study concludes a series of socioeconomic factors, and previous childbearing and childrearing experiences are crucial for women’s fertility intention for a third child. These findings highlight the importance of launching supportive measures in addition to the introduction of the 3-child policy in promoting a fertility-friendly society.

This paper describes the current fertility behavior and fertility intentions in Egypt. Moreover, the current paper used Logistic regression model to reveal the factors determining gap between fertility intentions and fertility behavior in Egypt. According to data from Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) in 2014, the mean ideal number of children is 3.01 and the mean number of children ever born is 2.69. The results indicate that the higher values of mean ideal number of children and mean number of CEB are demonstrated among uneducated women and families who have child mortality. The findings reveal that wealth index, women's age and women's education decrease the gap between fertility intentions and fertility behavior, while child mortality increases the probability of having a gap between fertility intentions and fertility behavior.

Achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially goals one (end all forms of poverty), three (ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages), four (ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all) and five (achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls) might be a mirage without conscious efforts on the part of many developing countries to reduce population growth. Rapid population growth due to a high fertility rate and fertility desire may engender strife, poverty, unemployment, competition for scarce resources.The study explored the influence of sex composition of living children on childbearing intention among high fertility married women in stable union. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study and the study population were married women with high fertility in stable union. Results showed that sex composition of surviving children were significantly associated with respondents' fertility intentions. The following were the predictors of fertility intentions; sex composition of surviving children, type of family, contraceptive use, child parity, women empowerment status and others. Sex composition of surviving children was significantly associated with the fert ility intentions of the high fertility married women in stable union.Achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially goals one (end all forms of poverty), three (ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages), four (ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all) and five (achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls) might be a mirage without conscious efforts on the part of many developing countries to reduce population growth. Rapid population growth due to a high fertility rate and fertility desire may engender strife, poverty, unemployment, competition for scarce resources.The study explored the influence of sex composition of living children on childbearing intention among high fertility married women in stable union. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study and the study population were married women with high fertility in stable union. Results showed that sex composition of surviving children were significantly associated with respondents' fertility intentions. The following were the predictors of fertility intentions; sex composition of surviving children, type of family, contraceptive use, child parity, women empowerment status and others. Sex composition of surviving children was significantly associated with the fert ility intentions of the high fertility married women in stable union.

Background Declining fertility rates have raised concerns about potential population crises in many nations. While previous studies have established the link between female education and fertility intentions, no global meta-analysis has examined the fertility intentions of highly educated women. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, Global Health, and APA PsycExtra for studies published between January 2000 and December 2022, without language restrictions. Eligible studies included cross-sectional, longitudinal, case-control, intervention, and qualitative studies that reported fertility intentions or influencing factors among females with at least a post-secondary education. We excluded abstracts, conference proceedings, letters, commentaries, editorials, reviews, and preprints. The pooled proportion of fertility intentions was estimated through a random-effects meta-analysis. We analyzed factors that influence fertility intentions using a data-based convergent synthesis design. Results Out of the initial 4,804 studies identified, 35 studies were eligible for inclusion. The meta-analysis of fertility intentions included 17,292 highly educated women from 19 countries. The pooled proportion of highly educated women who did not expect children in the future was 12.2% (95% CI 8.4–16.7%), with substantial variation across regions, from 5.1% (2.6–8.3%) in the European Region to 22.9% (13.6–33.7%) in the Western Pacific Region. Factors associated with fertility intentions included not only the pursuit of a career and education (individual-level), the need for stable relationships and family support (family-level), but also (un)supportive environments (community-level), labor market and childcare services (institutional-level), and social norms and national policies (structural-level). Conclusion Regional disparities in fertility intentions among highly educated women reflect underlying differences in social welfare systems, labor market structures, and gender norms. Policies aimed at supporting fertility in this group should move beyond a narrow focus on individual preferences and instead address the broader contextual factors that shape reproductive decision-making. Creating a supportive environment for parenting, through equitable leave entitlements, accessible childcare, and family-friendly employment policies, may contribute to fostering informed fertility choices among highly educated women. Trial registration CRD42023404366.