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TESTING FOR MULTIPLE BUBBLES: HISTORICAL EPISODES OF EXUBERANCE AND COLLAPSE IN THE S&P 500
Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long historical time series. The method is a generalized version of the sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test of Phillips et al. (\"Explosive behavior in the 1990s NASDAQ: When did exuberance escalate asset values?\" International Economic Review 52 (2011), 201–26; PWY) and delivers a consistent real-time date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations show that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains when multiple bubbles occur. An empirical application of the methodology is conducted on S&P 500 stock market data over a long historical period from January 1871 to December 2010. The new approach successfully identifies the well-known historical episodes of exuberance and collapses over this period, whereas the strategy of PWY and a related cumulative sum (CUSUM) dating procedure locate far fewer episodes in the same sample range.
Journal Article
Bond Yields in Emerging Economies: It Matters What State You Are In (PDF Download)
While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance. This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.
eBook
China's Gradualistic Economic Approach and Financial Markets
China's gradualistic approach allowed the government to learn how the economy reacts to small policy changes, and to adjust its reforms before implementing them in full. With fully developed financial markets, however, private actors may front-run future policy changes, making it impossible to implement policies gradually. With financial markets, the government faces a time-inconsistency problem. The government would like to commit to a gradualistic approach, but after it observes the economy's quick reaction, it has no incentive to implement its policies in small steps.
Journal Article
Financial Market Misconduct and Public Enforcement: The Case of Libor Manipulation
Using comprehensive data on London Interbank Offer Rate (Libor) submissions from 2001 through 2012, we provide evidence consistent with banks manipulating Libor to profit from Libor-related positions and to signal their creditworthiness during distressed times. Evidence of manipulation is stronger for banks that were eventually sanctioned by regulators and disappears for all banks in the aftermath of the Libor investigations that began in 2010. Our findings suggest that the threat of large penalties and the loss of reputation that accompany public enforcement can be effective in deterring financial market misconduct.
This paper was accepted by Adams, Renee, finance.
Journal Article
The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion
We analyze the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the United States and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been substantial contagion from domestic markets to individual domestic portfolios, with its severity inversely related to the quality of countries' economic fundamentals. This confirms the \"wake-up call\" hypothesis, with markets focusing more on country-specific characteristics during the crisis.
Journal Article
What Drives Risk Perception? A Global Survey with Financial Professionals and Laypeople
Risk is an integral part of many economic decisions and is vitally important in finance. Despite extensive research on decision making under risk, little is known about how risks are actually perceived by financial professionals, the key players in global financial markets. In a large-scale survey experiment with 2,213 finance professionals and 4,559 laypeople in nine countries representing ~50% of the world’s population and more than 60% of the world’s gross domestic product, we expose participants to return distributions with equal expected return, and we systematically vary the distributions’ next three higher moments. Of these, skewness is the only moment that systematically affects financial professionals’ perception of financial risk. Strikingly, variance does not influence risk perception, even though return volatility is the most common risk measure in finance in both academia and the industry. When testing other, compound risk measures, the probability to experience losses is the strongest predictor of what is perceived as being risky. Analyzing professionals’ propensity to invest, skewness and loss probability also have strong predictive power, while volatility and kurtosis have some additional effect. Our results are very similar for laypeople, and they are robust across and within countries with different cultural backgrounds, as well as for different job fields of professionals.
This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, decision analysis.
Journal Article
INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS
We provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such alterations to their balance sheets cause financiers to change their required compensation for holding currency risk, thus affecting both the level and volatility of exchange rates. Our theory of exchange rate determination in imperfect financial markets not only helps rationalize the empirical disconnect between exchange rates and traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, it also has real consequences for output and risk sharing. Exchange rates are sensitive to imbalances in financial markets and seldom perform the shock absorption role that is central to traditional theoretical macroeconomic analysis. Our framework is flexible; it accommodates a number of important modeling features within an imperfect financial market model, such as nontradables, production, money, sticky prices or wages, various forms of international pricing-to-market, and unemployment.
Journal Article