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We show that the value of corporate diversification increased during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. Diversification gave firms both financing and investment advantages. First, conglomerates became significantly more leveraged relative to comparable focused firms. Second, conglomerates’ access to internal capital markets became more valuable, not just because external capital markets became more costly but also because the efficiency of internal capital allocation increased significantly during the crisis. Our analysis provides new evidence on how and why the value of diversification varies with financial constraints and economic conditions, and it suggests that corporate diversification can serve an important insurance function for investors. This paper was accepted by Amit Seru, finance.

What is wrong with today's banking system? The past few years have shown that risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many claim, however, that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth.The Bankers' New Clothesexamines this claim and the narratives used by bankers, politicians, and regulators to rationalize the lack of reform, exposing them as invalid. Admati and Hellwig argue we can have a safer and healthier banking system without sacrificing any of the benefits of the system, and at essentially no cost to society. They show that banks are as fragile as they are not because they must be, but because they want to be--and they get away with it. Whereas this situation benefits bankers, it distorts the economy and exposes the public to unnecessary risks. Weak regulation and ineffective enforcement allowed the buildup of risks that ushered in the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Much can be done to create a better system and prevent crises. Yet the lessons from the crisis have not been learned. Admati and Hellwig seek to engage the broader public in the debate by cutting through the jargon of banking, clearing the fog of confusion, and presenting the issues in simple and accessible terms.The Bankers' New Clothescalls for ambitious reform and outlines specific and highly beneficial steps that can be taken immediately.

Priests of Prosperityexplores the unsung revolutionary campaign to transform postcommunist central banks from command-economy cash cows into Western-style monetary guardians. Juliet Johnson conducted more than 160 interviews in seventeen countries with central bankers, international assistance providers, policymakers, and private-sector finance professionals over the course of fifteen years. She argues that a powerful transnational central banking community concentrated in Western Europe and North America integrated postcommunist central bankers into its network, shaped their ideas about the role of central banks, and helped them develop modern tools of central banking. Johnson's detailed comparative studies of central bank development in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan take readers from the birth of the campaign in the late 1980s to the challenges faced by central bankers after the global financial crisis. As the comfortable certainties of the past collapse around them, today's central bankers in the postcommunist world and beyond find themselves torn between allegiance to their transnational community and its principles on the one hand and their increasingly complex and politicized national roles on the other.Priests of Prosperitywill appeal to a diverse audience of scholars in political science, finance, economics, geography, and sociology as well as to central bankers and other policymakers interested in the future of international finance, global governance, and economic development.

We employ a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the transmission of the global financial crisis via the collapse of export demand (trade channel) and through losses on cross-border asset holdings (financial channel). Calibrated to German data, the model predicts the trade channel to be twice as important as the financial channel. In the United Kingdom, the latter dominates due to higher foreign-asset holdings, which, at the same time, serve as an automatic stabiliser in case of plummeting foreign demand. The financial channel leads to much longer-lasting effects. Stricter enforcement of bank capital requirements would have frontloaded the recession.

The pre-Global Financial Crisis build-up, followed by the post-crisis collapse, in bank liquidity creation in developed countries is well-documented (Berger and Bowman, Berger and Bouwman, Review of Financial Studies 22:3779–3837, 2009). Comparable analyses on developing and emerging countries (DECs) have been severely hindered by the lack of detailed bank-by-bank balance sheet data. This paper proposes a new, high-frequency, Aggregate Bank Liquidity Creation (A-BLC) measure for 114 DECs on a comparable cross-country basis, which relies on macroeconomic, country-wide, banking systems’ balance sheet data. The A-BLC database allows us to assess the extent of bank fragility arising from illiquidity associated with intermediation at the banking system level for every DEC, at a monthly frequency over the period 2001–2016. Our measure captures more accurately than other measures proposed in the literature the evolution of bank liquidity creation in the DECs. Stylised facts and panel-regression analysis suggest a sharp pre-crisis build-up and post-crisis fall in liquidity creation in DECs, larger then that observed for developed countries. In addition, financial depth and stability appear as particularly important drivers of A-BLC in DECs.

A dynamic between foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade, and the level of urbanization, has been observed in many developing countries. This study seeks to fill a literature gap on the extent that FDI and international trade impact developing Asian economies through urbanization. The study explores the relationship between FDI, international trade, and urbanization in 31 developing Asian economies from 1991 to 2019, utilizing the dynamic panel model. Empirical results imply the significant effect of FDI inflows and trade openness on urbanization in developing Asia. The impact is clearly observed following the global financial crisis despite increased deglobalization. This finding supports the existence of structural changes and the transformation of economies in the region, which, among other factors, are driven by stronger global supply chains and improved logistics infrastructure in developing Asia.

The recent financial crises pointed out the central role of public and private debt in modern economies. However, even if debt is a recurring topic in discussions about the current economic situation, economic modeling does not take into account debt as one of the crucial determinants of economic dynamics. The authors' contribution, in this paper, is to investigate the issues of borrowing and debt load by means of computational experiments, performed in the environment of the agent-based Eurace simulator. The authors aim to shed some light on the relation between debt and main economic indicators. Their results clearly confirm that the amount of credit in the economy is a very important variable, which can affect economic performance in a twofold way: fostering growth or pushing the economy into recession or crisis. The outcomes of their computational experiments show a rich scenario of interactions between real and financial variables in the economy, and therefore represent a truly innovative tool for the study of economics.

Political institutions may directly affect the likelihood of currency crises by influencing market confidence. They may indirectly affect the likelihood of currency crises by influencing economic fundamentals. This study uses econometric mediation to estimate both direct and indirect causal pathways for veto player theory—a common framework for analyzing political institutional constraints—and finds this approach improves upon the standard econometric approach in the extant literature, which only estimates the direct causal pathway. This new mediated approach shows that political constraints also indirectly reduce the likelihood of crises through strengthening key economic fundamentals. Additionally, the analysis finds that when global conditions are stable, more constraints are shown to directly reduce the risk of crises. When global conditions are volatile, more constraints are shown to directly increase the risk of crises. Global volatility is more likely to cause crises in countries with relatively constrained political systems, and vice versa.

Although generally considered safe assets, liquid stocks underperformed illiquid stocks during the financial crisis of 2008–2009. The performance of stocks during the crisis can be better explained by their historical liquidity betas (risk) than by their historical liquidity levels. Stocks with different historical liquidity levels did not experience different returns after controlling for liquidity risk. The authors' findings highlight the importance of accounting for both liquidity level and liquidity risk in risk management applications.

As Wall Street rose to dominate the U.S. economy, income and pay inequalities in America came to dance to the tune of the credit cycle. As the reach of financial markets extended across the globe, interest rates, debt, and debt crises became the dominant forces driving the rise of economic inequality almost everywhere. Thus the “super-bubble” that investor George Soros identified in rich countries for the two decades after 1980 was a super-crisis for the 99 percent—not just in the U.S. but the entire world. This book demonstrates that finance is the driveshaft that links inequality to economic instability. The book challenges those, mainly on the right, who see mysterious forces of technology behind rising inequality. And it also challenges those, mainly on the left, who have placed the blame narrowly on trade and outsourcing. Inequality and Instability presents straightforward evidence that the rise of inequality mirrors the stock market in the U.S. and the rise of finance and of free-market policies elsewhere. Starting from the premise that fresh argument requires fresh evidence, this book brings new data to bear, presenting information built up over fifteen years in easily understood charts and tables. By measuring inequality at the right geographic scale, the book shows that more equal societies systematically enjoy lower unemployment. It shows how this plays out inside Europe, between Europe and the United States, and in modern China. It explains that the dramatic rise of inequality in the U.S. in the 1990s reflected a finance-driven technology boom that concentrated incomes in just five counties, very remote from the experience of most Americans—which helps explain why the political reaction was so slow to come. That the reaction is occurring now, however, is beyond doubt. In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, inequality has become, in America and the world over, the central issue.