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We use computational linguistics to develop a dynamic, interpretable methodology that can detect emerging risks in the financial sector. Our model can predict heightened risk exposures as early as mid-2005, well in advance of the 2008 financial crisis. Risks related to real estate, prepayment, and commercial paper are elevated. Individual bank exposure strongly predicts returns, bank failures, and return volatility. We also document a rise in market instability since 2014 related to sources of funding and mergers and acquisitions. Overall, our model predicts the buildup of emerging risk in the financial system and bank-specific exposures in a timely fashion.

PurposeDigital transformation misalignment refers to disparities in digital transformation levels between suppliers and buyers across the production and operation process. It has negatively affected supply chain stability. However, the existing research concerning the economic consequences has not been adequately addressed. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate whether such digital transformation misalignment increases supplier financial risk and to identify the factors influencing this relationship.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines binary combinations of suppliers and buyers listed on China’s A-share market between 2011 and 2021. This group constitutes a sample to empirically test the influence of digital transformation misalignment on the supplier’s financial risk, as well as the moderating effect of the geographical and organizational distances.FindingsThe paper’s findings demonstrate that digital transformation misalignment has indeed a significant increase in the supplier’s financial risk. Moreover, the impact is more intense when the geographical or organizational distance between the supplier and the buyer is relatively large.Originality/valueThe existing literature rarely explores the potential risks arising from digital transformation misalignment between supply chain partners. Therefore, this paper fills a notable gap as it is the first to study the impact of digital transformation misalignment on the supplier’s financial risk and the specific applied mechanisms. The contribution significantly improves the field of corporate digital transformation, particularly, within the context of supply chain management.

We examine whether natural disaster experiences affect households’ portfolio choice decisions. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, we find that adversely affected households are less likely to participate in risky asset markets. After a disaster shock, households become more risk-averse and lower their expectations on future stock market returns. Such conservative portfolio choices persist even after households relocate to less disaster-prone areas, consistent with risk preferences being altered by disaster experiences. Overall, our evidence suggests that transient but salient experiences can be an important factor in explaining the limited participation puzzle.

This research examines the effects of social exclusion on a critical aspect of consumer behavior, financial decision-making. Specifically, four lab experiments and one field survey uncover how feeling isolated or ostracized causes consumers to pursue riskier but potentially more profitable financial opportunities. These daring proclivities do not appear driven by impaired affect or self-esteem. Rather, interpersonal rejection exacerbates financial risk-taking by heightening the instrumentality of money (as a substitute for popularity) to obtain benefits in life. Invariably, the quest for wealth that ensues tends to adopt a riskier but potentially more lucrative road. The article concludes by discussing the implications of its findings for behavioral research as well as for societal and individual welfare.

Corporate insiders frequently borrow from lending institutions and pledge their personal equity as collateral for the loan. This borrowing, or pledging, potentially affects shareholder risk through changing managerial incentives or contingency risk. Using an exogenous shock to lending supply, we document a significant increase in risk arising from pledging. Difference-in-differences regressions indicate that insider pledging corresponds with a 16.5% relative increase in risk despite unchanged firm fundamentals. The empirical analysis supports contingency risk in linking pledging to volatility. Overall, our findings suggest that pledging allows influential insiders to extract private benefits of control at the expense of outside shareholders.

This study explores the mediating effect of financial literacy on the relationship between blockchain technology application and financial risk among financial institution professionals in Ghana. Utilizing a correlational research design, data were collected from a sample of 336 professionals through a self-constructed Likert-scale questionnaire. The analysis was conducted using path analysis and mediation techniques. The findings reveal that financial literacy had a  significant partial mediating effect between blockchain technology application and financial risk, accounting for 26.0% of the total effect. The direct negative effect of blockchain technology applications on financial risk also remained significant, highlighting the independent contribution of blockchain technology applications to reducing financial risk. These results underscore the importance of financial literacy in enhancing the effectiveness of blockchain technology applications in mitigating financial risks. The study emphasizes the need for comprehensive financial literacy programs to maximize the benefits of technological advancements in the financial sector. Empirical evidence from related literature supports the findings, indicating that higher financial literacy enables better utilization of blockchain technology applications, thereby reducing financial risk. The research provides insights for policymakers aiming to improve financial literacy and leverage blockchain technology applications for financial risk management.

PurposeThis paper applies an original construct of “subjective risk intelligence (SRI)” to the small business context. By leveraging on its multidimensionality, it aims to shed light on the existing ambiguities in the analysis of the relationship between the entrepreneurial attitude towards risk evaluation and firms’ financial stability.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical investigation refers to the Italian context, where an ad hoc survey has been administered to a sample of small businesses. Based on both a linear and a semiparametric regression, results show a significant relationship between SRI and firm’s financial structure, and that such relationship is basically nonlinear.FindingsEvidence shows that entrepreneurs with a high level of risk intelligence run highly leveraged firms. Moreover, in the light of the non-linearity of such relationship, higher levels of risk intelligence are associated with a greater capacity of the entrepreneur to govern the financial balance of the enterprise only up to a certain threshold. Over this threshold, risk intelligence generates overconfidence leading the entrepreneur to a reckless behaviour in taking financial risks.Originality/valueFrom a theoretical point of view, the paper contributes to the literature by shedding lights on the complexity of the relationship between risk intelligence and small businesses. From a policy point of view, findings suggest that, to train new entrepreneurs, the educational system aims should focus on the development of two specific “soft skills”: the ability to manage emotions and the ability to glimpse opportunities even in uncertain situations.

A challenge to the conventional wisdom surrounding financial risk, providing insight into why easy solutions to control the financial system are doomed to fail Finance plays a key role in the prosperity of the modern world-but it also brings grave dangers. We seek to manage those threats with a vast array of sophisticated mathematical tools and techniques of financial risk management. Too often, though, we fail to address the greatest risk-the peril posed by our own behavior. Jón Daníelsson argues that critical risk is generated from within, through the interactions of individuals and perpetuated by their beliefs, objectives, abilities, and prejudices. He asserts that the widespread belief that risk originates outside the financial system frustrates our ability to measure and manage it, and the likely consequences of new regulations will help alleviate small-scale risks but, perversely, encourage excessive risk taking. Daníelsson uses lessons from past and recent crises to show that diversity is the best way to safeguard our financial system.

Monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) not only imposes a great impact on the systematic financial risks of a country but also generates a significant spillover effect on countries having close economic exchanges with the former under the background of global economic integration. With the daily return rates of 64 listed financial companies in China from February 2006 to September 2020 used as the samples, China’s systematic financial risks were measured in this research by using long-run marginal expected shortfall (LRMES). On this basis, an FAVAR model with time-varying parameters was constructed to empirically investigate the spillover effect of US MPU on China’s systematic financial risks and its main transmission channels. Results showed that within the sample period (February 2006 – September 2020), US MPU generated a significant positive spillover effect on China’s systematic financial risks, namely, China’s systematic financial risks would be aggravated if the level of US MPU was elevated. From different time intervals, the spillover level was particularly high during global financial crises and global COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that the spillover effect of MPU is nonlinear and closely related to global major sudden risk events. Through the further research, it is found that this effect is mainly transmitted through short-term capital flow, interest rate, and economic uncertainty-induced channels, among which the short-term capital flow is the most important.

This paper examines the academic research on climate transition risk. Theobjective of this study is to provide descriptive characteristics of research trends inthe field of climate transition risk and make recommendations based on major bibliometricdata such as authors, journals, citation figures, methodology, geographicalfocus and author’s location. The systematic literature review methodology was usedto obtain information on publications and intellectual structure related to climatetransition risk from the Scopus bibliographic database until November 2023. A searchstrategy was developed to screen the title for eligibility, using the abstract and full textwhere needed. The review showed that annual evolution has increased significantlyin recent years. Findings revealed a marked European and Chinese dominance with little contribution from Global South in this research field with limited contributionsfrom Global South in terms of focus and authors and organizations contributions. Thepredominant data source is data-set indices, with limited methodological diversity inclimate transition risk research. Findings also showed that authors from universities,research institutes and central banks are contributing to climate transition risk literature. The main themes in climate transition risk research are banking, climate policy,stock market, and asset price and performance. The impacts of climate change on interconnectedness,systemic risk and financial stability were widely covered in overlappingpublications.