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"Fiscal Analysis"
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The ten trillion dollar gamble : the coming deficit debacle and how to invest now
Koesterich addresses the upcoming financial storm and what investors can do to capitalize when it hits.
Book
Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy
Only a few empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between fiscal multipliers and the underlying state of the economy. This paper investigates this link on a country-by-country basis for the G7 economies (excluding Italy). Our results show that fiscal multipliers differ across countries, calling for a tailored use of fiscal policy. Moreover, the position in the business cycle affects the impact of fiscal policy on output: on average, government spending, and revenue multipliers tend to be larger in downturns than in expansions. This asymmetry has implications for the choice between an upfront fiscal adjustment versus a more gradual approach.
eBook
Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks - Lessons for Austria from International Experience
The Austrian government is about to introduce a new fiscal management framework. The first step is to introduce a medium-term budgetary framework, including an expenditure rule. The paper focuses on this first step. The purpose is to describe and evaluate the Austrian model in light of other countries' experiences with their frameworks. An attempt is made to identify features that have proven to be effective elsewhere and that can be applied to the Austrian case. The paper also identifies potential challenges and possible trade-offs when implementing the framework.
eBook
Managing and Controlling Extrabudgetary Funds
This paper addresses issues relating to the establishment and financial management of extrabudgetary funds (EBFs), a large group of government entities that on average accounts for 40 to 45 percent of central government expenditure-two-thirds of which represents social security funds-in countries at various stages of development. If improperly designed and managed, EBFs can undermine effective fiscal control. However, they also bring potential benefits in the form of greater autonomy of decision-making in countries with well-established governance and financial management systems that have applied the \"agency model\" of devolved public management and fiscal control. The paper develops a typology of EBFs and argues that EBFs are frequently created because of failures in the budget system and political economy factors that need to be recognized and, where possible, corrected. The paper recommends that data on EBFs be consolidated within a unified system of fiscal reporting and proposes an analytical framework that governments might use to evaluate the effectiveness and utility of their EBFs.
eBook
Issues in Extractive Resource Taxation: A Review of Research Methods and Models
This paper provides a conceptual overview of economists' attempts to learn about the effects of taxes on extractive resources. The emphasis is on research methods and techniques, with no attempt to provide a comprehensive tabulation of previous empirical results or policy conclusions regarding preferred tax instruments or systems. We argue, in fact, that the nature of such conclusions largely depends on the researcher's choice of modeling framework. Many alternative frameworks and approaches have been developed in the literature. Our goal is to describe the differences among them and to note their strengths and limitations.
eBook
Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass
We quantify government spending multipliers in US data using Bayesian prior and posterior analysis of a monetary model with fiscal details and two distinct monetary-fiscal policy regimes. The combination of model specification, observable data, and relatively diffuse priors for some parameters lands posterior estimates in regions of the parameter space that yield fresh perspectives on the transmission mechanisms that underlie government spending multipliers. Short-run output multipliers are comparable across regimes—posterior means around 1.3 on impact—but much larger after 10 years under passive money/active fiscal than under active money/passive fiscal—90 percent credible sets of [1.5, 1.9] versus [0.1, 0.4] in present value, when estimated from 1955 to 2016.
Journal Article
A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries
This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second, uncertain and volatile oil revenue flows can complicate the management of macroeconomic policies in these countries. Third, given the exhaustibility of oil reserves, OPCs need to address longer-term sustainability and intergenerational equity issues. The use of non-oil fiscal indicators, stress tests, medium-term frameworks, and permanent oil income models can greatly aid in addressing these challenges
Book