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Seasonal hunger induced by agricultural seasonality is often a characteristic feature of rural poverty. The evidence of seasonal distress in many agrarian societies can be found in the narratives of economic historians. With agricultural diversification made possible through technological breakthroughs in many parts of the developing world, the severity of seasonal stress and adversities has been reduced considerably, if not altogether eliminated. In certain agricultural settings, however, the seasonality of poverty and hunger, along with the associated seasonal shortfalls in income and consumption, is still a policy quagmire. The problem gets more complicated when agricultural seasonality is locked into a cycle of endemic poverty, seasonal hunger, and risk of further impoverishment. Poverty and seasonality may also reinforce each other through various other forces that create and sustain both. The thrust of policy needs to be to break this interlocking cycle of poverty and seasonality. The book has nine chapters. Chapter two looks at the key conceptual issues and presents a global perspective on the challenge of addressing seasonal hunger. Chapter three brings Bangladesh's reality to the fore regarding seasonal poverty and food insecurity and the vulnerability of the northwest region. Chapter four analyzes the vulnerability of households to seasonal hunger, their coping strategies, and the extent to which income seasonality affects seasonal poverty and food deprivation. Chapter five reports some findings for both the Rangpur region and the country as a whole regarding the effects of policies and programs on poverty and food deprivation. The findings reported in the next three chapters are mainly related to the Rangpur region only. Chapter six examines the issue of seasonal migration in the context of mitigating seasonal deprivation. In chapter seven, the impact of the social safety-net programs is tested, whereas the effectiveness of microfinance is assessed in chapter eight. The concluding chapter, chapter nine, looks at the policy implications while also pointing to some emerging challenges.

Household food insecurity (HFI) and child dietary diversity (CDD) are variable across seasons. We examined seasonal variation in HFI and child undernutrition association and tested how CDD mediates this association. We analyzed data for 26,353 children aged 6–59 months drawn from nationally representative cross‐sectional Food Security and Nutrition Surveillance Project data collected during 2012–2014 in Bangladesh across three seasons annually: Post‐Aman harvest (January–April); Monsoon (May–August); and Post‐Aus harvest (September–December). Multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for individual, maternal, household and geographical characteristics reveals that children of food‐insecure households were more likely than food‐secure households to be stunted (adjusted odds ratio, AOR: 1.12; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.02–1.23; p < 0.05), wasted (AOR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.05–1.39; p < 0.01) and underweight (AOR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.04–1.3; p < 0.01). CDD mediated 6.1% of the total effect of HFI on underweight. These findings varied across seasons. HFI was associated with greater odds of underweight during Monsoon (AOR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.08–1.62; p < 0.01) and Post‐Aus (AOR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06–1.37; p < 0.01) while wasting during Post‐Aus (AOR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.35–2.01; p < 0.001). CDD largely mediated the total effect of HFI on underweight during the Post‐Aman in 2012–2014 (23.2%). CDD largely mediated the total effect of HFI on wasting (39.7%) during Post‐Aman season in 2014 and on underweight (13.7%) during the same season in 2012. These findings demonstrate that HFI is seasonally associated with child undernutrition and mediated by CDD as well in Bangladesh and seasonality and diversity should be considered while designing appropriate population‐level food‐based interventions to resolve child undernutrition. Children of food‐insecure households were more likely than food‐secure households to be stunted, wasted and underweight. Child dietary diversity mediated the relationship between food insecurity and child undernutrition, but this mediation effect fluctuated across seasons. Key messages The prevalence of child undernutrition was greater among children of food‐insecure households than food‐secure counterparts. Children of food‐insecure households were more likely than food‐secure households to be stunted, wasted and underweight. Child dietary diversity mediated the relationship between food insecurity and child undernutrition, but this mediation effect fluctuated across seasons.

To investigate the association of seasonality with dietary diversity, household food security and nutritional status of pregnant women in a rural district of northern Bangladesh. A cross-sectional study was conducted from February 2013 to February 2015. Data were collected on demographics, household food security (using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale), dietary diversity (using the women's dietary diversity questionnaire) and mid-upper arm circumference. Descriptive statistics were used to explore demographics, dietary diversity, household food security and nutritional status, and inferential statistics were applied to explore the role of seasonality on diversity, household food security and nutritional status. Twelve villages of Pirganj sub-district, Rangpur District, northern Bangladesh. Pregnant women (n 288). Seasonality was found to be associated with dietary diversity (P=0·026) and household food security (P=0·039). Dietary diversity was significantly lower in summer (P=0·029) and spring (P=0·038). Food security deteriorated significantly in spring (P=0·006) and late autumn (P=0·009). Seasons play a role in women's household food security status and dietary diversity, with food security deteriorating during the lean seasons and dietary diversity deteriorating during the second 'lesser' lean season and the season immediately after. Interventions that aim to improve the diet of pregnant women from low-income, subsistence-farming communities need to recognise the role of seasonality on diet and food security and to incorporate initiatives to prevent seasonal declines.

Connecting climate-induced yield anomalies to the key climatic variables (KCVs) and large-scale atmospheric circulation index (LACI) is crucial to developing a strategic policy for food security in developing countries including Bangladesh. However, the effects of the KCVs and LACI on rice yield are still less explored in Bangladesh. This study aims to investigate daily climatic datasets from 18 sites and five LACIs during 1980–2017 to explore climate-induced yield anomalies to the KCVs and LACIs in different sub-zones of Bangladesh using the decoupling model and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). We demarcated four sub-zones (northern, southwestern, south-central, and western) with different climate-induced yield index (CIYI) of winter Boro rice oscillations by employing principal component analysis. The CIYI time series in the northern zone was dominated by a 2–4-year oscillation, whereas the CIYI in the western zone demonstrated a prominent 6.5-year oscillation. Among the four sub-zones, south-central and northern zones had the most notable CIYI-KCV and CIYI-LACI associations, while the potential evapotranspiration (PET) in March and multivariate ENSO indices (MEI) in January were identified as the best yield prediction indicator. Wavelet coherence analysis indicated significant in-phase and out-phase coherences between KCVs and CIYI fluctuations at different time-frequency bands in these sub-zones. The random forest model also confirmed the MEI as the key driver influencing the rice yield fluctuation in Bangladesh. The isotopic signature of rainwater also demonstrated that the temperature variation is the main driver for event-based precipitation change in the south-central rice-growing zone. These outcomes can provide a scientific basis to take adaptive measures to mitigate the reduction in rice yield in western and northern Bangladesh for associated decision-makers and practitioners.

Background Hunger is associated with food insecurity at the household level and is considered as a global public health problem with long term adverse consequences on children’s health. This study aims to determine the factors associated with child hunger from a nationally representative sample in Bangladesh among food insecure households. Methods Data was derived from the Food Security and Nutritional Surveillance Project; 14,712 children aged 6–59 months belonging to food insecure households contributed to the analysis. Information on food security at the household level was collected for 30 days preceding the survey. Descriptive statistics served to illustrate the variables studied and multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the significant risk factors for child hunger. Results Overall 10% of the children were found to be hungry. After adjusting for seasonality, residence type and education level of household head, the variables - female headed households [OR: 1.87 (1.43–2.45); p  < 0.001], severely food insecure households [OR: 10.5 (1.43–76.6); p  < 0.05], households having women with no education [OR: 1.56 (1.27–1.92); p  < 0.05], poorest asset quintile [OR: 1.50 (1.11–2.15); p  < 0.05] and the amount of rice consumed per household per week [OR: 0.94 (0.92–0.96); p  < 0.001] were found to be significantly and independently associated with child hunger. Conclusions Out of the potential risk factors examined, our study found significant and independent association of five variables with child hunger: sex of the household head, household food insecurity status, educational status of household women and asset index. Despite all sampled household being food insecure, degree of household food insecurity status appeared to be the strongest predictor of child hunger.

The liberalization of the agricultural sector in general and the rice subsector in particular has been a major component of Bangladesh's structural adjustment program initiated in 1992. However, the government has continued to intervene in the rice subsector. This paper examines whether the regional/divisional rice markets have become spatially integrated following the liberalization of the rice market. Wholesale weekly coarse rice prices at six divisional levels over the period of January 2004 to November 2006 were used to test the degree of market integration in Bangladesh using co-integration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM). The Johansen co-integration test indicated that there are at least three co-integrating vectors implying that rice markets in Bangladesh during the study period are moderately linked together and therefore the long-run equilibrium is stable. The short-run market integration as measured by the magnitude of market interdependence and the speed of price transmission between the divisional markets has been weak. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

Introduction -- Understanding seasonal hunger : key issues in a global perspective -- Seasonal poverty and hunger in Bangladesh : vulnerability of the northwest region -- Household vulnerability and coping strategies -- Effects of policies and programs : some preliminary findings -- The role of seasonal migration -- Effectiveness of social safety net programs -- Microfinance to tackle seasonality -- Overview, policy perspectives, and emerging issues -- References