Catalogue Search | MBRL
Are you sure you want to remove the book from the shelf?
{{itemTitle}}
1,290
result(s) for
"Food supply Forecasting."
Sort by:
Farming and the future
This book explores the different areas of modern farming, including the use of robots, computers, and genetics.
Book
La dépendance alimentaire de l'Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient à l'horizon 2050
La région Afrique du Nord - Moyen-Orient est marquée par sa dépendance croissante vis-à-vis des importations agricoles. Cette dépendance devrait globalement s'accentuer et atteindre, notamment en cas de renforcement du changement climatique, des niveaux extrêmes. Cet ouvrage examine le devenir du système agricole et alimentaire de cette région du monde à l'horizon 2050, à partir de divers scénarios d'évolution de la demande alimentaire.
eBook
Food aid projections for the decade of the 1990s: report of an ad hoc panel meeting, October 6 and 7, 1988
This book presents the results of a meeting held by the Board on Science and Technology for International Development. At this meeting, six groups of modelers presented their best estimates of the food aid/food commodity trade picture during the period 1991-2000. These estimates are based on each modeler's own database and own assumptions about trends in global policy, climate, population, and economics.
eBook
Tough choices: facing the challenge of food scarcity
\"Recent declines in food produced from oceanic fisheries and croplands give some sense of what the future holds. The issue is not whether grain production can be expanded, but whether it can be accomplished fast enough to keep up with the record growth in demand...Meanwhile, farmers face the uncertainties of climate change. If heat waves become progressively more intense, as climate models suggest, meeting future food needs could become even more difficult.\" (USA TODAY MAGAZINE) The author examines the future relationship between countries with large food reserves and those that are less fortunate.
Magazine Article
BOMB SCARE
Ever since Parson Thomas Robert Malthus wrote his 1798 essay on population, it has been trotted out by millenarians and self-styled Cassandras as the basis for predicting famine and global woe. Malthus's arguments were resurrected as a best-seller for the modern era in the 1968 overpopulation-panic classic The Population Bomb. The recent food crisis has elevated Malthus's reputation as a prognosticator to the Delphic levels of a Nostradamus or an Al Roker. But despite his centuries-long global celebrity and recent revival, the parson's predictions have been wrong from the start. He was wrong about the future of his native Britain. And he was wrong about the future of everywhere else. Food prices have risen in the last couple of years, but not because people are reaching the limits of their productive capacity to prevent global starvation. The largest factor behind recent price increases is US subsidies that divert 80 million-plus tons of corn into ethanol production each year, World Bank economist Donald Mitchell has calculated.
Magazine Article
Running out of loaves and fishes
Overpopulation and a declining food and water supply, compounded by social disintegration and environmental degradation, should dictate a new direction to prevent future decline. New technologies have failed to increase agricultural production, and population growth and overgrazing have led to further deforestation and soil erosion. More money should be spent on a global environmental education effort under the leadership of the United Nations.
Magazine Article
Calibrated probabilistic sub-seasonal forecasting for Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall in 2022
In 2022, a record-breaking monsoon caused flooding throughout Pakistan, particularly in the southern regions, resulting in deaths, property losses, and severe crop damage, affecting the food supply chain that could last for years. This study assesses the accuracy of sub-seasonal calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for Pakistan. The evaluation focuses on forecasts initialized throughout the summer monsoon season (June–September) and utilizes the European Center for Medium Range Forecast (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Forecasts are calibrated using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and evaluated using cross-validated hindcasts from 2002 to 2021. The calibrated hindcasts exhibit positive ranked probability skill score and are reliable for weeks 1 (days 1–7), 2 (days 8–14), and 3 – 4 (days 15–28), lead times. In the extraordinary monsoon season of 2022, tercile-category probabilistic forecasts provided useful information up to 4 weeks ahead. Furthermore, the occurrences of intense monsoon rainfall in the highly affected southern region of Pakistan were forecasted reasonably well up to 2 weeks in advance. The ECMWF model's ability to predict sub-seasonal monsoon rainfall in Pakistan during 2022 is attributed to the model’s successful prediction of monsoonal intra-seasonal oscillations.
Journal Article
Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks
Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as the Earth’s climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with future temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in the world’s major maize-producing and -exporting countries under 2 °C and 4 °C of global warming. We find that as the global mean temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize exports, the probability that they have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% in any given year is presently virtually zero, but it increases to 7% under 2 °C warming and 86% under 4 °C warming. Our results portend rising instability in global grain trade and international grain prices, affecting especially the ∼800 million people living in extreme poverty who are most vulnerable to food price spikes. They also underscore the urgency of investments in breeding for heat tolerance.
Journal Article