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Driverless urban futures : a speculative atlas for autonomous vehicles
\"Since the industrial revolution, innovations in transportation technology have continued to re-shape the spatial organization and temporal occupation of the built environment. Today, autonomous vehicles (AVs, also referred to as self-driving cars) represent the next disruptive innovation in mobility, with particularly profound impacts for cities. At a moment of the fast-paced development of AVs by auto-making companies around the world, policymakers, planners, and designers need to anticipate and address the many questions concerning the impacts of this new technology on urbanism and society at large. Conceived as a speculative atlas -a roadmap to unknown territories- this book presents a series of drawings and text that unpack the potential impacts of AVs on scales ranging from the metropolis to the street. The work is both grounded in a study of the history of urban transportation and current trajectories of technological innovation, and informed by an open-ended attitude of future envisioning and design. Through the drawings and essays, Driverless Urban Futures invites readers into a debate of how our future infrastructure could benefit all members of the public and levels of society.\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy
Welch and Goyal (2008) find that numerous economic variables with in-sample predictive ability for the equity premium fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecasting gains relative to the historical average. Arguing that model uncertainty and instability seriously impair the forecasting ability of individual predictive regression models, we recommend combining individual forecasts. Combining delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average consistently over time. We provide two empirical explanations for the benefits of forecast combination: (i) combining forecasts incorporates information from numerous economic variables while substantially reducing forecast volatility; (ii) combination forecasts are linked to the real economy.
Journal Article
Fewer, richer, greener : prospects for humanity in an age of abundance
\"\"The quality of [his] thinking and [his] writing is...second to none in the world of finance.\"--Jack Bogle, founder, Vanguard \"That great explainer of everything to everybody.\" --Richard Flannery, CEO, The Investment Fund for Foundations Our world is burdened with disappearing economic growth, a deteriorating environment, limited natural resources, and not just too many people, but too many old people. Really? While such pessimism may mark you as a wise soul at the neighborhood cocktail party, it isn't supported by the facts. Yes, there are reasons to worry, as there have always been. But there are far more reasons to be optimistic, as author Laurence Siegel explains in his fascinating look at the future, Fewer, Richer, Greener. The recent dramatic slowing in global population growth will allow prosperity to spread from the developed to the developing world. Prosperity is mostly based on technology in the broadest sense of that word--meaning \"the techniques we use for getting the most out of what we have.\" That technology is cumulative. We have what we had yesterday, plus whatever new technology is developed today. Except in times of massive economic dislocation, the present is better than the past--and the future will be better still. Using narrative, data, biography and interviews with leading thinkers, Fewer, Greener, Richer, traces the history of economic progress and explosres its consequences for human life around the world. We are, as Siegel explains, at the turning point where the economic development of the past 200 years in the first world has begun to spread to the rest of the globe. Using sources ranging from the Old Testament to the latest writings on economics, biology, and philosophy, Siegel tells the story of how we arrived at this point, and lays out a vision for the progress we are about to witness. This future will not be without problems, but we will have the knowledge and technology to solve those problems in ways that would have be unimaginable only a few decades ago\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Homo deus : a brief history of tomorrow
\"Over the past century humankind has managed to do the impossible and rein in famine, plague, and war ... For the first time ever, more people die from eating too much than from eating too little; more people die from old age than from infectious diseases; and more people commit suicide than are killed by soldiers, terrorists, and criminals put together. The average American is a thousand times more likely to die from binging at McDonald's than from being blown up by al Qaeda. What then will replace famine, plague, and war at the top of the human agenda?\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change
The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated real-time out-of-sample exercise using a time-varying coefficients vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility to predict the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in the USA. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular, the forecasts of inflation are much more accurate than those obtained with any other competing model, including fixed coefficients VARs, time-varying autoregressions and the naïve random walk model. The results hold true also after the mid 1980s, a period in which forecasting inflation was particularly hard.
Journal Article
What the future looks like : scientists predict the next great discoveries and reveal how today's breakthroughs are already shaping our world
\"Science fact, not science fiction, on the cutting-edge developments that are already changing the course of our future\"--Back cover.
Book
The Planet in 2050
In 2050, the billions of people living on Earth have found a way to manage the planetary system effectively. Everyone has access to adequate food, shelter, and clean water. Human health is no longer considered outside of the health of the ecosystems in which people live. Ecological awareness is an integral part of education. People respond effectively to social and environmental hazards, and societies care for the most vulnerable amongst them. The economy, too, has shifted. Carbon dioxide management is under control, and energy efficiency is the norm. The remaining rainforests have been preserved. Coral reefs are recovering. Fish stocks are thriving. Is any of this really possible? How can our complex social and economic systems interact with a complex planetary system undergoing rapid change to create a future we all want?
This book is a contextualised collation of ideas articulated by the 50 participants of the Planet 2050 workshop held in Lund in October 2008, as part of The Planet in 2050, an interdisciplinary Fast Track Initiative of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. Participants were selected from academia and the sustainability practice community to give a wide-ranging, multi-cultural, trans-disciplinary set of perspectives.
This collection explores four broad sectoral themes: energy and technologies; development, economies and culture; environment; and land use change. By doing so, this book emphasises the importance of a social dialogue on our collective future, and our responsibility to the Earth. It makes strong statements about what needs to happen to the global economy for a sustainable future and documents a new kind of scholarly discussion, engaging people from diverse knowledge communities in a spirit of exploration and reflexivity. The book provides a focus for dialogue and further study for postgraduates and researchers interested in global change as a multi-faceted, socio-environmental
eBook
Physics of the future : how science will shape human destiny and our daily lives by the year 2100
Renowned theoretical physicist Michio Kaku details the developments in computer technology, artificial intelligence, medicine, space travel, and more, that are poised to happen over the next hundred years. He also considers how these inventions will affect the world economy, addressing the key questions: Who will have jobs? Which nations will prosper? Kaku interviews three hundred of the world's top scientists- working in their labs on astonishing prototypes. He also takes into account the rigorous scientific principles that regulate how quickly, how safely, and how far technologies can advance. In this book, Kaku forecasts a century of earthshaking advances in technology that could make even the last centuries' leaps and bounds seem insignificant. -- from Back Cover
Book
Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link
Using a standard decomposition of forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Thus the reliability of disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty will be determined by the stability of the forecasting environment and the length of the forecast horizon. Using density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we find direct evidence in support of our hypothesis. Our results support the use of GARCH-type models, rather than the ex post squared errors in consensus forecasts, to estimate the ex ante variability of aggregate shocks as a component of aggregate uncertainty.
Journal Article