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Statistical methods provide a logical, coherent framework in which data from experimental science can be analyzed. Minimizing theory and mathematics, this book focuses on the application and practice of statistics used in data analysis. The book includes a refresher on basic statistics and an introduction to R, techniques for the visual display of data through graphics, an overview of statistical hypothesis tests, a comprehensive guide to the use of the linear model, an introduction to extensions to the linear model for commonly encountered scenarios, and instruction on how to plan and design experiments.

Handbook of Forensic Statistics is a collection of chapters by leading authorities in forensic statistics. Written for statisticians, scientists, and legal professionals having a broad range of statistical expertise, it summarizes and compares basic methods of statistical inference (frequentist, likelihoodist, and Bayesian) for trace and other evidence that links individuals to crimes, the modern history and key controversies in the field, and the psychological and legal aspects of such scientific evidence. Specific topics include uncertainty in measurements and conclusions; statistically valid statements of weight of evidence or source conclusions; admissibility and presentation of statistical findings; and the state of the art of methods (including problems and pitfalls) for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data in such areas as forensic biology, chemistry, and pattern and impression evidence. The particular types of evidence that are discussed include DNA, latent fingerprints, firearms and toolmarks, glass, handwriting, shoeprints, and voice exemplars.

The leading resource in the statistical evaluation and interpretation of forensic evidence  The third edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists is fully updated to provide the latest research and developments in the use of statistical techniques to evaluate and interpret evidence. Courts are increasingly aware of the importance of proper evidence assessment when there is an element of uncertainty. Because of the increasing availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is?gaining a higher profile in criminal cases. That's why lawyers, forensic scientists, graduate students, and researchers will find this book an essential resource, one which explores how forensic evidence can be evaluated and interpreted statistically. It's written as an accessible source of information for all those with an interest in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic scientific evidence.     Discusses the entire chain of reasoning-from evidence pre-assessment to court presentation;  Includes material for the understanding of evidence interpretation for single and multiple trace evidence;  Provides real examples and data for improved understanding.  Since the first edition of this book was published in 1995, this respected series has remained a leading resource in the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It shares knowledge from authors in the fields of statistics and forensic science who are international experts in the area of evidence evaluation and interpretation. This book helps?people to deal with uncertainty related to scientific evidence and propositions. It?introduces?a?method of reasoning that shows?how to?update beliefs coherently and to?act rationally.?In this edition, readers can find new information on the topics of elicitation, subjective probabilities, decision analysis, and cognitive bias, all discussed in a Bayesian framework.  

Assessing Weight-of-Evidence for DNA Profiles is an excellent introductory text to the use of statistical analysis for assessing DNA evidence. It offers practical guidance to forensic scientists with little dependence on mathematical ability as the book includes background information on statistics – including likelihood ratios – population genetics, and courtroom issues. The author, who is highly experienced in this field, has illustrated the book throughout with his own experiences as well as providing a theoretical underpinning to the subject. It is an ideal choice for forensic scientists and lawyers, as well as statisticians and population geneticists with an interest in forensic science and DNA.

This is the first text to examine the use of statistical methods in forensic science and bayesian statistics in combination. The book is split into two parts: Part One concentrates on the philosophies of statistical inference. Chapter One examines the differences between the frequentist, the likelihood and the Bayesian perspectives, before Chapter Two explores the Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective further, and looks at the benefits it carries. Part Two then introduces the reader to the practical aspects involved: the application, interpretation, summary and presentation of data analyses are all examined from a Bayesian decision-theoretic perspective. A wide range of statistical methods, essential in the analysis of forensic scientific data is explored. These include the comparison of allele proportions in populations, the comparison of means, the choice of sampling size, and the discrimination of items of evidence of unknown origin into predefined populations. Throughout this practical appraisal there are a wide variety of examples taken from the routine work of forensic scientists. These applications are demonstrated in the ever-more popular R language. The reader is taken through these applied examples in a step-by-step approach, discussing the methods at each stage.

Research on the human microbiome, the microbiota that live in, on, and around the human person, has revolutionized our understanding of the complex interactions between microbial life and human health and disease. The microbiome may also provide a valuable tool in forensic death investigations by helping to reveal the postmortem interval (PMI) of a decedent that is discovered after an unknown amount of time since death. Current methods of estimating PMI for cadavers discovered in uncontrolled, unstudied environments have substantial limitations, some of which may be overcome through the use of microbial indicators. In this project, we sampled the microbiomes of decomposing human cadavers, focusing on the skin microbiota found in the nasal and ear canals. We then developed several models of statistical regression to establish an algorithm for predicting the PMI of microbial samples. We found that the complete data set, rather than a curated list of indicator species, was preferred for training the regressor. We further found that genus and family, rather than species, are the most informative taxonomic levels. Finally, we developed a k-nearest- neighbor regressor, tuned with the entire data set from all nasal and ear samples, that predicts the PMI of unknown samples with an average error of ±55 accumulated degree days (ADD). This study outlines a machine learning approach for the use of necrobiome data in the prediction of the PMI and thereby provides a successful proof-of- concept that skin microbiota is a promising tool in forensic death investigations.

Raman spectroscopy is increasingly being used in biology, forensics, diagnostics, pharmaceutics and food science applications. This growth is triggered not only by improvements in the computational and experimental setups but also by the development of chemometric techniques. Chemometric techniques are the analytical processes used to detect and extract information from subtle differences in Raman spectra obtained from related samples. This information could be used to find out, for example, whether a mixture of bacterial cells contains different species, or whether a mammalian cell is healthy or not. Chemometric techniques include spectral processing (ensuring that the spectra used for the subsequent computational processes are as clean as possible) as well as the statistical analysis of the data required for finding the spectral differences that are most useful for differentiation between, for example, different cell types. For Raman spectra, this analysis process is not yet standardized, and there are many confounding pitfalls. This protocol provides guidance on how to perform a Raman spectral analysis: how to avoid these pitfalls, and strategies to circumvent problematic issues. The protocol is divided into four parts: experimental design, data preprocessing, data learning and model transfer. We exemplify our workflow using three example datasets where the spectra from individual cells were collected in single-cell mode, and one dataset where the data were collected from a raster scanning–based Raman spectral imaging experiment of mice tissue. Our aim is to help move Raman-based technologies from proof-of-concept studies toward real-world applications. Raman spectroscopy is increasingly being used in biological assays and studies. This protocol provides guidance for performing chemometric analysis to detect and extract information relating to the chemical differences between biological samples.

Strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) are gaining considerable interest as a geolocation tool and are now widely applied in archaeology, ecology, and forensic research. However, their application for provenance requires the development of baseline models predicting surficial 87Sr/86Sr variations (\"isoscapes\"). A variety of empirically-based and process-based models have been proposed to build terrestrial 87Sr/86Sr isoscapes but, in their current forms, those models are not mature enough to be integrated with continuous-probability surface models used in geographic assignment. In this study, we aim to overcome those limitations and to predict 87Sr/86Sr variations across Western Europe by combining process-based models and a series of remote-sensing geospatial products into a regression framework. We find that random forest regression significantly outperforms other commonly used regression and interpolation methods, and efficiently predicts the multi-scale patterning of 87Sr/86Sr variations by accounting for geological, geomorphological and atmospheric controls. Random forest regression also provides an easily interpretable and flexible framework to integrate different types of environmental auxiliary variables required to model the multi-scale patterning of 87Sr/86Sr variability. The method is transferable to different scales and resolutions and can be applied to the large collection of geospatial data available at local and global levels. The isoscape generated in this study provides the most accurate 87Sr/86Sr predictions in bioavailable strontium for Western Europe (R2 = 0.58 and RMSE = 0.0023) to date, as well as a conservative estimate of spatial uncertainty by applying quantile regression forest. We anticipate that the method presented in this study combined with the growing numbers of bioavailable 87Sr/86Sr data and satellite geospatial products will extend the applicability of the 87Sr/86Sr geo-profiling tool in provenance applications.

In this paper, we present a method for automated estimation of a human face given a skull remain. Our proposed method is based on three statistical models. A volumetric (tetrahedral) skull model encoding the variations of different skulls, a surface head model encoding the head variations, and a dense statistic of facial soft tissue thickness (FSTT). All data are automatically derived from computed tomography (CT) head scans and optical face scans. In order to obtain a proper dense FSTT statistic, we register a skull model to each skull extracted from a CT scan and determine the FSTT value for each vertex of the skull model towards the associated extracted skin surface. The FSTT values at predefined landmarks from our statistic are well in agreement with data from the literature. To recover a face from a skull remain, we first fit our skull model to the given skull. Next, we generate spheres with radius of the respective FSTT value obtained from our statistic at each vertex of the registered skull. Finally, we fit a head model to the union of all spheres. The proposed automated method enables a probabilistic face-estimation that facilitates forensic recovery even from incomplete skull remains. The FSTT statistic allows the generation of plausible head variants, which can be adjusted intuitively using principal component analysis. We validate our face recovery process using an anonymized head CT scan. The estimation generated from the given skull visually compares well with the skin surface extracted from the CT scan itself.

Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) has gained increasing attention because it provides rich chemical information and high sensitivity, being applicable in many scientific fields including medical diagnosis, forensic analysis, food control, and microbiology. Although SERS is often limited by the lack of selectivity in the analysis of samples with complex matrices, the use of multivariate statistics and mathematical tools has been demonstrated to be an efficient strategy to circumvent this issue. Importantly, since the rapid development of artificial intelligence has been promoting the implementation of a wide variety of advanced multivariate methods in SERS, a discussion about the extent of their synergy and possible standardization becomes necessary. This critical review comprises the principles, advantages, and limitations of coupling SERS with chemometrics and machine learning for both qualitative and quantitative analytical applications. Recent advances and trends in combining SERS with uncommonly used but powerful data analysis tools are also discussed. Finally, a section on benchmarking and tips for selecting the suitable chemometric/machine learning method is included. We believe this will help to move SERS from an alternative detection strategy to a general analytical technique for real-life applications. Graphical Abstract