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Long term (2002–2017) satellite-retrieved and reanalysis datasets are utilized to assess the daily and interannual timescale impact of aerosol loadings on the cloud properties, precipitation amounts, and freezing level height over the southern slopes and adjacent foothills (SSFH) of the Himalayas during the Indian summer monsoon season. Daily timescale composites during polluted days suggest the development of widespread deeper clouds and higher precipitation amounts. Significant efforts were carried out to isolate the role of weather forcing in the daily timescale from the outlined aerosol-cloud-precipitation relationship by using the environmental relative humidity (RH) and vertical velocity (ω). Results provide strong evidence suggesting that regardless of weather pattern forcing, the direct association of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with precipitation, and cloud properties remained consistent for day-to-day timescales. The spatial correlation analyses of daily AOD with cloud properties and precipitation during both wet and dry monsoonal years indicate a positive association of higher aerosol concentration with cloud vertical development and precipitation. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is found to be higher by 136.82 ± 18.82 m (mean ± standard deviation) during the polluted days in comparison to relatively cleaner environments, which can be crucial for the change in snow line and melting of glaciers impacting the hydroclimate of the Himalayas. Our results suggest that the influence of aerosol on modulating the regional precipitation and freezing level height can be significant for the hydroclimate of the Himalayan region in a daily to interannual timescale.

Previous studies have recognized reflectivity maxima above the freezing level (RMAF) within stratiform precipitation over mountain slopes, however, quantitative studies are limited due to the lack of adequate identification criteria. Here, we establish an identification method for RMAF precipitation and apply it to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations. Using the TRMM 2A25 product from 1998 to 2013, we show that the RMAF structure in reflectivity profiles can be effectively identified. RMAF exists not only in stratiform precipitation but also in convective precipitation. RMAF frequency is positively correlated with elevation, which is thought to be caused by enhanced updrafts in the middle layers of stratiform precipitation, or in the low to middle layers of convective precipitation over mountains. The average RMAF heights in stratiform and convective precipitation were 1.35 and 2.01 km above the freezing level, respectively, which is lower than previous results. In addition, our results indicate that the RMAF structure increased the echo top height and enhanced precipitation processes above the RMAF height, but it suppressed the downward propagation of ice particles and the near-surface rain rate. Future studies of orographic precipitation should take into account the impact of the RMAF structure and its relevant dynamic triggers.

Many analytic, but approximate, expressions have been proposed for the height of the lifting condensation level (LCL), including the popular expressions by Espy, Bolton, and Lawrence. Here, the exact, explicit, analytic expression is derived for an air parcel’s LCL as a function of its temperature and relative humidity. Unlike previous analytic expressions, some of which can have errors as high as hundreds or thousands of meters, this exact expression is accurate to within the uncertainty of empirical vapor pressure measurements: this translates into an uncertainty of around 5 m for all temperatures and relative humidities. An exact, explicit, analytic expression for the lifting deposition level (LDL) is also derived, and its behavior is compared to the LCL. At sufficiently cold temperatures, aerosols freeze homogeneously below the LCL; an approximate, implicit, analytic expression is given for this lifting freezing level (LFL). By comparing the LCL, LDL, and LFL, it is found that a well-mixed boundary layer can have an ice-supersaturated layer that is no thicker than 400 m.

This study is the first to reach a global view of the precipitation process partitioning, using a combination of satellite and global climate modeling data. The pathways investigated are 1) precipitating ice (ice/snow/graupel) that forms above the freezing level and melts to produce rain (S) followed by additional condensation and collection as the melted precipitating ice falls to the surface (R); 2) growth completely through condensation and collection (coalescence), warm rain (W); and 3) precipitating ice (primarily snow) that falls to the surface (SS). To quantify the amounts, data from satellite-based radar measurements—CloudSat, GPM, and TRMM—are used, as well as climate model simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the Met Office Unified Model (UM). Total precipitation amounts and the fraction of the total precipitation amount for each of the pathways is examined latitudinally, regionally, and globally. Carefully examining the contributions from the satellite-based products leads to the conclusion that about 57% of Earth’s precipitation follows pathway S, 15% R, 23% W, and 5% SS, each with an uncertainty of ±5%. The percentages differ significantly from the global climate model results, with the UM indicating smaller fractional S, more R, and more SS; and CAM showing appreciably greater S, negative R (indicating net evaporation below the melting layer), a much larger percentage of W and much less SS. Possible reasons for the wide differences between the satellite- and model-based results are discussed.

Environments associated with severe hailstorms, compared to those of tornadoes, are often less apparent to forecasters. Understanding has evolved considerably in recent years; namely, that weak low-level shear and sufficient convective available potential energy (CAPE) above the freezing level is most favorable for large hail. However, this understanding comes only from examining the mean characteristics of large hail environments. How much variety exists within the kinematic and thermodynamic environments of large hail? Is there a balance between shear and CAPE analogous to that noted with tornadoes? We address these questions to move toward a more complete conceptual model. In this study, we investigate the environments of 92 323 hail reports (both severe and nonsevere) using ERA5 modeled proximity soundings. By employing a self-organizing map algorithm and subsetting these environments by a multitude of characteristics, we find that the conditions leading to large hail are highly variable, but three primary patterns emerge. First, hail growth depends on a favorable balance of CAPE, wind shear, and relative humidity, such that accounting for entrainment is important in parameter-based hail prediction. Second, hail growth is thwarted by strong low-level storm-relative winds, unless CAPE below the hail growth zone is weak. Finally, the maximum hail size possible in a given environment may be predictable by the depth of buoyancy, rather than CAPE itself.

Contrasting the extensive research on summer atmospheric rivers (ARs) in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), winter AR impacts are less understood. This study examines a unique warming event from 1 to 3 July 2023, using in situ winter observations and ERA5 reanalysis. On 2 July, Frei station experienced an extreme warm event with a temperature of 2.7°C and a significant rise in the freezing level, coinciding with winter rainfall. A pressure dipole pattern over the AP, with contrasting circulations over Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas, facilitated an AR, carrying warm, humid air initially from South America/Atlantic and then the southeast Pacific. This shift resulted in anomalous water stable isotope composition in precipitation. Trends suggest a strengthening winter pressure dipole, associated with increased AR frequency and higher temperatures in northern AP. These findings highlight the importance of winter observations in exploring AR impacts, bridging knowledge gaps about winter AR behaviors. Plain Language Summary The Antarctic Peninsula is increasingly witnessing climate extremes during summer, while the understanding of such extremes in winter remains limited. Our study explores a significant warming event in the northern Peninsula in early July 2023, utilizing recent winter in situ observations and atmospheric analysis. On 2 July, an exceptional temperature of 2.7°C was recorded, significantly altering the atmospheric freezing level and causing rainfall instead of snow. Our analysis revealed a unique atmospheric pattern around the Peninsula, characterized by varying air movements over the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas. This pattern facilitated an “atmospheric river,” a flow of warm and moist air from lower latitudes, including continental South America/Atlantic and the southeast Pacific, as reflected in the precipitation's water stable isotope composition. This event is indicative of a potential trend toward more frequent and severe occurrences, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive winter research in the Antarctic Peninsula to understand the broader implications of extreme weather events and climate change. Key Points Early July 2023 had extreme winter warmth with rainfall in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, favored by an atmospheric river In recent decades, strengthened winter pressure dipole has directed northerly warm and moist air, resulting in warm events in the region We highlight the need for expanded winter research in the Antarctic Peninsula to better understand climate change and extreme weather events

We examine the geographical distribution and microphysical three-dimensional structure of convective overshooting over East China by matching the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM DPR) instrument with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Fifth-Generation Reanalysis (ERA5). Convective overshooting mainly occurs over Northeast China (NC) and northern Middle and East China (MEC), and its frequency varies from 4×10-4 to 5.4×10-3. Radar reflectivity of convective overshooting over NC accounts for a higher proportion below the freezing level, while MEC and South China (SC) account for a higher proportion above the freezing level, indicating stronger upward motion and more ice crystal particles. The microphysical processes within convective overshooting are unique, leading to various properties of the droplets in precipitation. Droplets of convective overshooting are large but sparse, with an effective droplet radius of nearly 2.5 mm below 10 km, which is about twice that of non-overshooting precipitation. The findings of this study may have important implications for the microphysical evolution associated with convective overshooting and provide more accurate precipitation microphysical parameters as input for model simulations.

Numerical simulations of the impact of ultrafine cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) on deep convection are analyzed to investigate the idea proposed by Fan et al. that addition of ultrafine CCN to an otherwise pristine environment leads to convective invigoration. The piggybacking methodology is applied, allowing rigorous separation of the impact of aerosols from different flow realizations that typically occur when even a small element of the model physics or modeling setup is changed. The setup follows the case of daytime convective development over land based on observations during the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (LBA) experiment in Amazonia. Overall, the simulated impacts of ultrafine CCN are similar to the previous study by the authors on the impact of pollution on deep convection. There is no convective invigoration above the freezing level, but there is a small invigoration (increase in vertical velocities) below due to the supersaturation and buoyancy differences in conditions with additional ultrafine CCN compared to unperturbed pristine conditions. As in the previous study, the most significant impact is on the upper-tropospheric convective anvils that feature higher cloud fractions in conditions with ultrafine CCN. The increase comes from purely microphysical considerations as the increased cloud droplet concentrations from ultrafine CCN lead to increased ice crystal concentrations and, consequently, smaller sizes and fall velocities, and longer residence times. Mesoscale organization due to low-level shear has a small effect on the simulated ultrafine CCN impacts. Finally, an alternative explanation of increased lightning above oceanic shipping lines seen in satellite observations and argued to result from convective invigoration is provided.

Water management throughout the western United States largely relies on the partitioning of cool season mountain precipitation into rain and snow, particularly snow as it maximizes available water for warm season use. Recent studies indicate a shift toward increased precipitation falling as rain, which is consistent with a warming climate. An approach is presented to estimate precipitation-phase partitioning across landscapes from 1948 to the present by combining fine-scale gridded precipitation data with coarse-scale freezing level and precipitation data from an atmospheric reanalysis. A marriage of these data sets allows for a new approach to estimate spatial patterns and trends in precipitation partitioning over elevational and latitudinal gradients in major water supply basins. This product is used in California as a diagnostic indicator of changing precipitation phase across mountain watersheds. Results show the largest increases in precipitation falling as rain during the past 70 years in lower elevation watersheds located within the climatological rain–snow transition regions of northern California during spring. Further development of the indicator can inform adaptive water management strategy development and implementation in the face of a changing climate.

We use the output of twenty-seven Global Climate Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate the temperature changes and their dependence on the elevation in the Tibetan Plateau, Himalaya and Karakoram mountains and in the surrounding areas in historical model simulations and in future projections. The aim of this study is to explore if and to what extent the CMIP5 models show elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in this part of the globe and to investigate what are the driving factors at play and their relative importance. Our results indicate that the models show enhanced rates of warming at higher elevations in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayan region in the twentieth century, and this phenomenon is projected to strengthen by the end of the twenty-first century under a high-emission scenario. We find a nonlinear relationship between the warming rates and the elevation, for both the minimum and the maximum temperature: regions with temperatures below the freezing level of water show more warming than the regions with temperatures above, likely suggesting a key role of mechanisms involving water phase changes, the presence/absence of snow and the snow-albedo feedback. We consider the main variables simulated by the CMIP5 models whose change may be related to temperature changes at higher elevations. We find that changes in surface albedo, atmospheric humidity and downward longwave radiation are relevant factors for EDW in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas, with surface albedo being the leading driver.