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Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

In 2016, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward (as calculated from the results of the GBD Study) was 24.9%. This estimate varies according to country, region, and national level of social development. The risk increased by 8.9% from 1990 to 2016.

Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has emerged as a major global public health concern. We aimed to use data from the GBD 2016 study to provide new estimates for prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for migraine and tension-type headache and to present the methods and results in an accessible way for clinicians and researchers of headache disorders. Data were derived from population-based cross-sectional surveys on migraine and tension-type headache. Prevalence for each sex and 5-year age group interval (ie, age 5 years to ≥95 years) at different time points from 1990 and 2016 in all countries and GBD regions were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. Disease burden measured in YLDs was calculated from prevalence and average time spent with headache multiplied by disability weights (a measure of the relative severity of the disabling consequence of a disease). The burden stemming from medication overuse headache, which was included in earlier iterations of GBD as a separate cause, was subsumed as a sequela of either migraine or tension-type headache. Because no deaths were assigned to headaches as the underlying cause, YLDs equate to disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Almost three billion individuals were estimated to have a migraine or tension-type headache in 2016: 1·89 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·71–2·10) with tension-type headache and 1·04 billion (95% UI 1·00–1·09) with migraine. However, because migraine had a much higher disability weight than tension-type headache, migraine caused 45·1 million (95% UI 29·0–62·8) and tension-type headache only 7·2 million (95% UI 4·6–10·5) YLDs globally in 2016. The headaches were most burdensome in women between ages 15 and 49 years, with migraine causing 20·3 million (95% UI 12·9–28·5) and tension-type headache 2·9 million (95% UI 1·8–4·2) YLDs in 2016, which was 11·2% of all YLDs in this age group and sex. Age-standardised DALYs for each headache type showed a small increase as SDI increased. Although current estimates are based on limited data, our study shows that headache disorders, and migraine in particular, are important causes of disability worldwide, and deserve greater attention in health policy debates and research resource allocation. Future iterations of this study, based on sources from additional countries and with less methodological heterogeneity, should help to provide stronger evidence of the need for action. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Cancer is the second most common cause of death globally. Therefore, it is imperative to investigate cancer incidence, mortality rates, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to enhance preventive measures and healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to assess cancer burden and associated risk factors in 204 countries and territories between 1980 and 2021. Methods We selected data on cancer incidence and mortality rates and associated risk factors from the global burden of disease (GBD) study tool for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 and 1980 to 2021. We estimated the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and age-standardized deaths (ASDR) of 34 cancer types categorized as level 3 causes based on the GBD hierarchy. Results In 2021, cancer accounted for 14.57% (95% uncertainty interval: 13.65–15.28) of total deaths and 8.8% (7.99–9.67) of total DALYs in both sexes globally. ASIR and ASDR were 790.33 (694.43–893.01) and 116.49 (107.28–124.69), respectively. Additionally, females exhibited higher ASIR than males (923.44 versus 673.09), while males exhibited higher ASDR than females (145.69 versus 93.60). This indicates that policymakers should focus on the importance of gender equality in healthcare. Non-melanoma skin cancer exhibited the highest ASIR (74.10) in both sexes, while digestive cancers accounted for 39.29% of all cancer-related deaths, and Asia exhibited the heaviest cancer burden. In females, breast cancer exhibited the highest ASIR (46.40) and ASDR (14.55). In males, tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer exhibited the highest ASIR (37.85) and ASDR (34.32), highlighting the urgent need for targeted tobacco control measures. Different cancers in various countries exhibit unique characteristics. Therefore, policymakers should formulate specific prevention and control strategies that reflect the cancer in their country. Tobacco was the primary level 2 risk factor for cancer DALYs in males. It accounted for 29.32% (25.32–33.14) of all cancer DALYs. Dietary risks, alcohol consumption, and air pollution accounted for 5.89% (2.01–10.73), 5.48% (4.83–6.11), and 4.30% (2.77–5.95) of male cancer DALYs, respectively. Therefore, policymakers should prioritize smoking regulation and other carcinogenic risks. Conclusion Cancer is a significant public health concern globally. Understanding the common etiologies of different cancers is essential for developing effective control strategies and targeted interventions.

We address the multicommodity flow problem with a nonlinear goal function modeling queueing delay. It is well-known that linear programming solvers perform better than those used for nonlinear programming. We can leverage their performance by employing the Generalized Benders Decomposition (GBD) to partition the problem into master and primal subproblems. We prove that in the case of multiple subproblems, which is true in our case, we can split both the optimality and feasibility cuts and add them independently. Moreover, we extended a known proof of convergence to enable a wider range of problems to be solved using GBD. We use the split cuts technique to precompute feasibility cuts and analytically solve the subproblems to omit the use of nonlinear optimization software. Furthermore, we explore the possibilities of starting point selection through linear and quadratic approximation. We carry out tests on a classical network example to show that GBD can sometimes outperform nonlinear solvers, and also that quadratic approximation for starting point selection can provide strictly better solution times, dominating commercial solvers.

PurposeWe aimed to estimate the burden of UTIs by age, sex, and socioeconomic status in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe used data from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to analyse the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to UTIs at the global, regional, and national levels. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100,000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We further explored the associations between the incidence, mortality, DALYs, and socio-demographic index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.ResultsIn 2019, more than 404.6 million (95% UI 359.4–446.5) individuals had UTIs globally and nearly 236,786 people (198,433–259,034) died of UTIs, contributing to 5.2 million (4.5–5.7) DALYs. The age-standardised incidence rate increased from 4715.0 (4174.2–5220.6) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 5229.3 (4645.3–5771.2) per 100,000 population in 2019. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised incidence rate in 2019 occurred in Tropical Latin America (13,852.9 [12,135.6–15,480.3] per 100,000 population). At the national level, Ecuador had the highest age-standardised incidence rate (15,511.3 [13,685.0–17,375.6] per 100,000 population). The age-standardised death rates were highest in Barbados (19.5 [13.7–23.5] per 100,000 population). In addition, age-standardised incidence, death, and DALY rates generally increased across the SDI.ConclusionsOur study results suggest a globally rising trend of UTI burden between 1990 and 2019.

Background Migraine, a neurological disorder with a significant female predilection, is the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in women of childbearing age (WCBA). There is currently a lack of comprehensive literature analysis on the overall global burden and changing trends of migraines in WCBA. Methods This study extracted three main indicators, including prevalence, incidence, and DALYs, related to migraine in WCBA from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database from 1990 to 2021. Our study presented point estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). It evaluated the changing trends in the burden of migraine in WCBA using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and percentage change. Results In 2021, the global prevalence, incidence, and DALYs cases of migraine among WCBA were 493.94 million, 33.33 million, and 18.25 million, respectively, with percentage changes of 48%, 43%, and 47% compared to 1990. Over the past 32 years, global prevalence rates and DALYs rates globally have increased, with an EAPC of 0.03 (95% UI: 0.02 to 0.05) and 0.04 (95% UI: 0.03 to 0.05), while incidence rates have decreased with an EAPC of -0.07 (95% UI: -0.08 to -0.05). Among the 5 Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, in 2021, the middle SDI region recorded the highest cases of prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of migraine among WCBA, estimated at 157.1 million, 10.56 million, and 5.81 million, respectively, approximately one-third of the global total. In terms of age, in 2021, the global incidence cases for the age group 15–19 years were 5942.5 thousand, with an incidence rate per 100,000 population of 1957.02, the highest among all age groups. The total number of migraine cases and incidence rate among WCBA show an increasing trend with age, particularly in the 45–49 age group. Conclusions Overall, the burden of migraine among WCBA has significantly increased globally over the past 32 years, particularly within the middle SDI and the 45–49 age group. Research findings emphasize the importance of customized interventions aimed at addressing the issue of migraines in WCBA, thus contributing to the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 3 set by the World Health Organization.

Purpose The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC), which occurs in people under age 50, has been increasing annually. The aim of this study was to provide an up-to-date estimate of the global EO-CRC burden. Methods We used Global Burden of Disease Study data and methodologies to describe changes in the EO-CRC burden from 1990 to 2019, including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The driving factors for cancer burden variation were further analyzed using decomposition analysis. Frontier analysis was used to visually demonstrate the potential for burden reduction in each country or region based on their development levels. Results The global EO-CRC incidence more than doubled, increasing from 95,737 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 90,838–101.042) /100,000 in 1990 to 226,782 (95% UI: 207,495–248,604) /100,000 in 2019. Additionally, related deaths increased from 50,997 (95% UI: 47,692–54,410) /100,000 to 87,014 (95% UI: 80,259–94,339) /100,000, and DALYs increased from 256,1842 (95% UI: 239,4962–2,735,823) /100,000 to 4,297,573 (95% UI: 3,965,485–4,650,790) /100,000. Regarding age-standardized rates, incidence and prevalence increased significantly, while mortality and DALYs rate were basically unchanged. Decomposition analysis showed a significant increase in DALYs in the middle sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile region, in which aging and population growth played a major driving role. Frontier analysis showed that countries or regions with a higher SDI quintile tend to have greater improvement potential. Conclusion The current EO-CRC burden was found to be the greatest in the high-middle SDI quintile region and East Asia, which may need to adjust screening guidelines accordingly and introduce more effective interventions.