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The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘ C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

This paper examines the economic implications of the tariff increases by the United States and by China during the Trump era trade dispute and the gains from their potential removal. The increases were dramatic, with the US raising tariffs on industrial products by a factor of six – with particularly large tariff increases on intermediate and capital goods – and China increasing its tariffs on US agricultural products more than five-fold. These changes distort trade and production decisions in both countries and undercut the global trading system. They resulted in substantial economic losses to each country, with import volumes reduced by 4.9% in China and 4.5% in the USA, and bilateral trade patterns were massively distorted. Their cost to the United States rose at the end of 2021, when the import expansion provisions of the Trump era Phase One Agreement expired. Negotiating the abolition of these costly and disruptive tariffs would generate substantial real income gains for both countries and help lower US consumer prices.

This paper adopts the GDYN model to estimate the dynamic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global manufacturing industry and the value chain. Our simulation finds that (1) In the short run, the low-tech manufacturing industries will suffer greater shocks, with a decline of output growth in 2021 by 6.0%. The growth rate of the high-tech manufacturing industry showed an increasing trend of 3.7% in 2021. (2) In the post-epidemic period, the total manufacturing output will return to the baseline level, from which the growth rate of low-tech manufacturing will rebound, demonstrating a V-shaped development trajectory. (3) From the perspective of Global Value Chain (GVC), the participation in GVCs of manufacturers in countries along the Belt and Road, the European Union and the United States will weaken, while China’s manufacturing industry has witnessed an obvious improvement in export competitiveness. The import added value of China has decreased, which shows that its ability to meet domestic demand has been improving. This indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic is providing a crucial opportunity for China to upgrade its manufacturing value chain, which contributes to the accelerated construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement is an important free trade agreement in the Asia Pacific region. The implementation of RCEP is greatly significant for ensuring the effective supply of agricultural products to member states. On the basis of the analysis of the agricultural product trade structure among China, Australia and New Zealand since 2000, we summarise in this article the potential consequences of tariff reduction for the agricultural products among the three countries under the RCEP framework. The Global Trade Analysis Project model has been used to analyse the effects of RCEP on the macroeconomic indicators, agricultural products trade and domestic agricultural output of the three countries. The research findings indicate that agricultural product trade among the three countries has grown rapidly since 2000. The results of the Global Trade Analysis Project simulations revealed that implementing RCEP will foster macroeconomic growth in the three countries. China’s imports of beef and dairy products and wheat from Australia and New Zealand will substantially increase, and China’s domestic production of this agricultural sector will decrease. Furthermore, India’s potential participation in RCEP will further affect China’s imports and exports of grain. These findings could guide the policymakers in the three countries in designing future agricultural production and trade strategies according to the different scenarios of international trade among the three countries and considering the potential of India joining.

Energy–economy–environment sustainability is critical in shaping energy policies, especially in developing countries facing energy shortages. Investment in energy infrastructure, such as under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), provides an opportunity to explore how such investments impact economic growth, environmental quality, and energy security. This study examines the energy, economic, and environmental effects of CPEC’s energy investments in Pakistan, covering a range of power sources, including coal, hydro, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Utilizing data from 31 CPEC energy projects and employing the GTAP-E-Power model, this research assesses these impacts through seven scenarios, comprehensively analyzing the heterogeneity of different power sources. Our findings reveal that while all types of CPEC energy infrastructure investments contribute to increasing the share of zero-emissions electricity to 49.1% and reducing CO2 emissions by 18.61 million tons, the economic impacts vary significantly by energy source. The study suggests that it is crucial to prioritize renewable energy investments while addressing immediate power shortages to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. Policymakers should also consider the potential inter-sectoral substitution effects when applying significant shocks to specific sectors. This analysis informs future energy investment decisions under CPEC and offers insights for other Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries aiming to optimize their energy strategies for sustainable development.

Green House Gases emitted into the atmosphere over decades cause global warming now. The aim of this research is the impact of implementing the carbon tax on welfare in Indonesia. The research method used is the CGE method using GTAP-E to evaluate energy policy in the economy. GTAP-E consists of 140 countries and 57 sectors combined into forty-two regions and eight sectors. Using carbon tax scenario (simulation 1 is 1.93 USD/ton CO 2, simulation 2 is 3.72 USD/ton CO 2, and simulation 3 is 4.83 USD/ton CO 2). The results of the Indonesian equivalent variation show a negative value. The higher the carbon tax is applied, the greater the decline in welfare. This is also felt by all research countries except the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Oceania, OtherSEAsia, East Asia, Argentina, Japan, Poland, Portugal, and Ukraine. The variable of the regional demand, it can be seen that the carbon tax causes Indonesia's regional income to increase, and Singapore's income to decrease, while other countries experience no change in income. The primary factor return ratio also shows that the increase in the carbon tax caused a decline in the Land, Unsklab, Sklab, Capital, and Natural Resources sectors. Indonesia's GDP also shows a decrease if a higher carbon tax is implemented, but other countries have no impact on GDP. The Carbon emissions show that it decreases to Indonesia. So, the implementation of the carbon tax causes a decrease in welfare as seen from the equivalent variation, Primary Return Ratio, and GDP in Indonesia. The government must have an alternative policy if a carbon tax is implemented in Indonesia.

Linking carbon emissions trading systems across countries has become an important tool for global emission reduction. The three high-emission Asian countries, China, Japan, and South Korea (ROK), all have initiated carbon trading and published ambitious Intended Nationally Determined Contribution targets. Since 2016, the three countries have discussed establishing a long-term unified market for carbon emissions trading, and have sought a scheme for such exchange. This study aimed to investigate whether linking the carbon emissions trading systems of these three countries could potentially achieve more ambitious emission reduction targets. A dynamic energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model was used to simulate carbon market linkages across the three countries. The results indicated that a linked China–Japan–ROK carbon market would be highly cost-effective, have positive economic benefits for all three countries, and improve the carbon market’s liquidity and transaction scale. Under a scenario with no carbon market linking, the economic losses in China, Japan, and ROK would be$51.55 billion, $ 13.55 billion, and$74.19 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, with carbon trading linking, the losses would be reduced to $ 47.08 billion,$5.37 billion, and $ 9.10 billion, respectively. Therefore, a joint China–Japan–ROK carbon market could greatly promote the adoption of market-based tools for emission reduction.

A sequel to Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications (Cambridge University Press, 1996, edited by Thomas W. Hertel), this new volume presents the technical aspects of the Global Trade Analysis Program's global dynamic framework (GDyn) and its applications within important global policy issues. The book covers a diverse set of topics including trade reform, growth, investment, technology, demographic change and the environment. Environmental issues are particularly well-suited for analysis with GDyn, and this volume covers its uses with climate change, resource use and technological progress in agriculture. Other applications presented in the book focus on integration issues such as rules governing foreign investment, e-commerce regulations, trade in services, harmonization of technical standards, sanitary and photo-sanitary regulations, streamlining of customs procedures, and demographic change and migration.

To address competitiveness and leakage concerns in international climate policy, this paper proposes a differentiated carbon tax scheme (DCT), which largely preserves the relative competitive positions of developed and developing countries. The paper first presents a theoretical model from which to derive the DCT. Then, employing a global trade analysis model, competitiveness and leakage effects under a DCT are simulated and contrasted to those of a unilateral carbon tax, a carbon tariff, and a uniform carbon tax. The results of our analysis suggest that: (1) under the proposed DCT, emission reductions in developed and developing countries are higher and leakage is lower than under a carbon tariff; (2) the DCT has weaker competitiveness effects than a carbon tariff; and (3) the DCT is more favorable to developing countries’ output and welfare than a carbon tariff or a uniform global carbon tax. Developing countries may therefore embrace a DCT as an intermediate step towards the implementation of a global carbon tax.

Purpose. To provide quantification of industry-specific structural shifts in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term perspective as a result of the structural policies application. Methodology. The methodological basis of the study is economic and mathematical modelling using the computable general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). Methods of analysis and synthesis were used in systematization and generalization of modelling results. The study on the theoretical basis of the GTAP model was carried out using the system method. Findings. The influence of structural policy instruments of the state on the dynamics of economic development in Ukraine is analyzed using the applied general equilibrium model GTAP. The essence and peculiarities of functioning of computable general equilibrium models, scope of their application in the analysis of structural changes in the economy are revealed. Using the GTAP model, the macroeconomic and sector-structural effects of the implementation of a number of structural policy measures in Ukraine have been quantified, including: exemption from payment of import duties on innovative equipment for processing industry manufacturers; preferential insurance and export crediting through an export credit agency; foreign trade facilitation; exemption of industrial park residents from payment of some direct taxes and fees (VAT, land tax, infrastructure levy). Positive economic effect of the proposed measures in structural and macroeconomic dimensions is argued. The impact of domestic economy restructuring on the dynamics of socio-economic development and general welfare of the population is estimated. Originality. A methodical approach to quantitative assessment of macroeconomic and sectoral-structural effects in the economy of Ukraine in the medium term using the applied model of general equilibrium GTAP is proposed. It is revealed that in the medium term, the aggregate effect of the structural policy measures is 11.4% of GDP growth, both due to intensification of business activity as a whole and due to more efficient use of resources and factors of production in the more productive sectors of the national economy. Among the measures considered, the greatest structural effect is observed as a result of the development of a network of real-life industrial parks in Ukraine. At the same time, structural tariff policy has the lowest potential for economic growth, although it remains an important element in improving manufacturers access to innovative equipment. Practical value. The results obtained can be used as a scientific substantiation of reforms in the industrial and foreign trade policy of Ukraine, aimed at ensuring qualitative structural shifts in the domestic economy.