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"GOVERNMENT REVENUE"
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The Great Revenue Divergence
This article describes and explains a previously overlooked empirical pattern in state revenue collection. As late as 1913, central governments in the West collected similar levels of per capita revenue as the rest of the world, despite ruling richer societies and experiencing a long history of fiscal innovation. Western revenue levels permanently diverged only in the following half-century. We identify the twentieth-century great revenue divergence by constructing a new panel data set of central government revenue with broad spatial and temporal coverage. To explain the pattern, we argue that sustainably high levels of revenue extraction require societal demand for an activist state, and a supply of effective bureaucratic institutions. Neither factor in isolation is sufficient. We formalize this insight in a game-theoretic model. The government can choose among low-effort, legibility-intensive, and crony-favoring strategies for raising revenues. Empirically, our theory accounts for low revenue intake in periods of low demand (the nineteenth-century West) or low bureaucratic capacity (twentieth-century former colonies), and for eventual revenue spikes in the West.
Journal Article
Assessing the Future of Oil and Gas Production and Local Government Revenue in Five Western US Basins
Oil and gas production is a major source of public revenue in many US regions, but uncertainty exists over the future of demand for hydrocarbons. We model how oil and gas production and related government revenue change in five western US basins depending on future oil and natural gas prices under three scenarios of climate policy ambition. We find that the Green River and San Juan basins experience production declines across all scenarios, while production in the Bakken, Permian, and Powder River basins are more dependent on prices. Government revenue generally follows the direction of production, but these relationships are not directly proportional. Under the lower price scenarios, revenue declines more steeply than production because it reflects both production and prices, which both decline. Long-term permanent funds, which are in place across all the states we examine, provide an important fiscal cushion for school districts, their primary beneficiary.
JEL Classification: H71, H72, H73, O13, Q41, Q48
Journal Article
Nontaxation and representation : the fiscal foundations of political stability
\"Does oil make countries autocratic? Can foreign aid make countries democratic? Does taxation lead to representation? In this book, Kevin M. Morrison develops a novel argument about how government revenues of all kinds affect political regimes and their leaders. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Morrison illustrates that taxation leads to instability, not representation. With this insight, he extends his award-winning work on nontax revenues to encompass foreign aid, oil revenue, and intergovernmental grants and shows that they lead to decreased taxation, increased government spending, and increased political stability. Looking at the stability of democracies and dictatorships as well as leadership transitions within those regimes, Morrison incorporates cross-national statistical methods, formal modeling, a quasi-experiment, and case studies of Brazil, Kenya and Mexico to build his case. This book upends many common hypotheses and policy recommendations, providing the most comprehensive treatment of revenue and political stability to date\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Revealing the hidden marine dagaa cross-border trade in mainland Tanzania
Informal cross-border fish trade (ICBFT) is becoming predominant in many African nations and unfortunately there is little information on its magnitude at country level. To address this gap, this study was conducted in mainland Tanzania covering two border posts and one fishing village, to identify the nature, conditions and assess the weight and value of ICBFT in comparison to the available official data, so as to determine the Government revenue loss for the marine small pelagic fishery which is locally known as dagaa. Data was collected through participants observation, interviews and informal routes monitoring framework. Interview excerpt coding, social network analysis and quantification were used in data analysis. Findings revealed that the marine dagaa informal cross-border trade is being operated in a multifaceted setting, characterized by five aspects: network; key actors; social supports; informal cross-border trade routes; and informal transiting places, time and vehicles. Middlemen and Porters scored higher network centrality scores, implying that, they are the key actors in the ICBFT operation. Further, it was found that the marine dagaa ICBFT accounted for about 972.6 M. tons valued at US$1.8 million, which is 7.5 higher compared to official data between 2018 and 2019, resulting in approximately US$165,006 government revenue loss. Such findings are essential for assessing the total contribution of cross-border fish trade to the country's economy, and setting appropriate ICBFT management strategies to maximize benefits from the cross-border trade in the country for people’s well-being and the neighbouring countries.
Journal Article
Social sector in a decentralised economy : India in the era of globalisation
\"\"Provides critical insights into the effectiveness of public expenditure through benefit incidence analysis of education and healthcare services in India\"--Provided by publisher\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Inflation and public finances: an overview
This paper presents an analytical overview of the effects of inflation on government revenues, expenditure and fiscal positions. Evidence for a range of countries from the current inflation episode and that of the 1980s is compared and contrasted. The key finding is that high inflation initially boosts tax revenues and improves fiscal positions, but expenditure quickly catches up and offsets this improvement. The short-term boost is partly due to structural changes that have made modern tax systems more elastic with respect to inflation. The medium-turn deterioration reflects a shifttoward spending items more responsive to inflation. The key risk is that the impression of abundant tax revenues will lead to spending programmes or tax cuts that damage public finances in the long term. As research on inflation and public finances has been dormant since the 1980s, this analysis fills a gap in our understanding of the fiscal consequences of inflation.
Journal Article
Fiscal Policy Determinants of Health Spending in India: State Versus Center
This study uses data from 1986 to 2021 and the auto-regressive distributed lag model to explore India’s fiscal policy determinants of government health spending. The results find two structural breaks in time: (i) 2002 for state government health spending (SGHS) and (ii) 2014 for central government health spending. The results also show that central revenue transfers to states have a positive and statistically significant effect on SGHS in the long run. The results imply that a 1% rise in central revenue transfers to states leads to a 0.399% increase in SGHS. Further, state government public debt exhibits a negative and statistically significant relationship with SGHS, implying that a 1% rise in public debt leads to a 0.119% fall in SGHS in the long run. Fiscal management (i.e., revenue mobilization and debt sustainability) is essential to prepare a long-term strategy for health-care financing.
Journal Article