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Life on Earth has been characterized by recurring cycles of ecological stasis and disruption, relating biological eras to geological and climatic transitions through the history of our planet. Due to the increasing degree of ecological abruption caused by human influences many advocate that we now have entered the geological era of the Anthropocene, or “the age of man.” Considering the ongoing mass extinction and ecosystem reshuffling observed worldwide, a better understanding of the drivers of ecological stasis will be a requisite for identifying routes of intervention and mitigation. Ecosystem stability may rely on one or a few keystone species, and the loss of such species could potentially have detrimental effects. The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) has historically been highly abundant and is considered a keystone species in ecosystems of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Collapses of cod stocks have been observed on both sides of the Atlantic and reported to have detrimental effects that include vast ecosystem reshuffling. By whole-genome resequencing we demonstrate that stabilizing selection maintains three extensive “supergenes” in Atlantic cod, linking these genes to species persistence and ecological stasis. Genomic inference of historic effective population sizes shows continued declines for cod in the North Sea–Skagerrak–Kattegat system through the past millennia, consistent with an early onset of the marine Anthropocene through industrialization and commercialization of fisheries throughout the medieval period.

Anthropogenic noise impacts behaviour and physiology in many species, but responses could change with repeat exposures. As repeat exposures can vary in regularity, identifying regimes with less impact is important for regulation. We use a 16-day split-brood experiment to compare effects of regular and random acoustic noise (playbacks of recordings of ships), relative to ambient-noise controls, on behaviour, growth and development of larval Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Short-term noise caused startle responses in newly hatched fish, irrespective of rearing noise. Two days of both regular and random noise regimes reduced growth, while regular noise led to faster yolk sac use. After 16 days, growth in all three sound treatments converged, although fish exposed to regular noise had lower body width–length ratios. Larvae with lower body width–length ratios were easier to catch in a predator-avoidance experiment. Our results demonstrate that the timing of acoustic disturbances can impact survival-related measures during development. Much current work focuses on sound levels, but future studies should consider the role of noise regularity and its importance for noise management and mitigation measures.

Egg quality in fishes is commonly determined by fertilisation success and cleavage patterns as a phenotypic outcome of underlying regulatory mechanisms. Although these phenotypic estimators of egg quality are useful in farming conditions, these “good quality” egg batches do not always translate to good larval growth and survival. The identification of genes involved in embryonic development may help find links between genetic factors of maternal origin and egg quality. Herein, the relative expression of seven stage-specific developmental genes of Atlantic cod was analysed using quantitative PCR to understand the function during embryogenesis and its relationship with egg quality. Genes ccnb2 and pvalb1 showed significant differential expression between developmental stages and significant upregulation from blastula and somite stages, respectively. The comparison of spawning batches showed that the relative gene expression of genes ccnb2, acta, tnnt3 and pvalb1 was significantly higher from the middle of the spawning season where phenotypic quality estimators establish the best egg quality. Moreover, a positive significant correlation was observed between quality estimators based on egg morphology and the genetic expression of genes acta and acta1 during somitogenesis. This study suggests that the combination of quality estimators, genetics and batch timing could help optimise reproductive protocols for commercial stocks of Atlantic cod.

The widespread depletion of commercially exploited marine living resources is often seen as a general failure of management and results in criticism of contemporary management procedures. When populations show dramatic and positive changes in population size, this invariably leads to questions about whether favorable climatic conditions or good management (or both) were responsible. The Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) stock has recently increased markedly and the spawning stock biomass is now at an unprecedented high. We identify the crucial social and environmental factors that made this unique growth possible. The relationship between vital rates of Barents Sea cod stock productivity (recruitment, growth, and mortality) and environment is investigated, followed by simulations of population size under different management scenarios. We show that the recent sustained reduction in fishing mortality, facilitated by the implementation of a \"harvest control rule,\" was essential to the increase in population size. Simulations show that a drastic reduction in fishing mortality has resulted in a doubling of the total population biomass compared with that expected under the former management regime. However, management alone was not solely responsible. We document that prevailing climate, operating through several mechanistic links, positively reinforced management actions. Heightened temperature resulted in an increase in the extent of the suitable feeding area for Barents Sea cod, likely offering a release from density-dependent effects (for example, food competition and cannibalism) through prolonged overlap with prey and improved adult stock productivity. Management and climate may thus interact to give a positive outlook for exploited high-latitude marine resources.

Many collapsed fish populations have failed to recover after a decade or more with little fishing. This may reflect evolutionary change in response to the highly selective mortality imposed by fisheries. Recent experimental work has demonstrated a rapid genetic change in growth rate in response to size-selective harvesting of laboratory fish populations. Here, we use a 30-year time-series of back-calculated lengths-at-age to test for a genetic response to size-selective mortality in the wild in a heavily exploited population of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Controlling for the effects of density- and temperature-dependent growth, the change in mean length of 4-year-old cod between offspring and their parental cohorts was positively correlated with the estimated selection differential experienced by the parental cohorts between this age and spawning. This result supports the hypothesis that there have been genetic changes in growth in this population in response to size-selective fishing. Such changes may account for the continued small size-at-age in this population despite good conditions for growth and little fishing for over a decade. This study highlights the need for management regimes that take into account the evolutionary consequences of fishing.

Otolith shape has previously been used to identify ecotypes within the Icelandic cod ( Gadus morhua) stock, using DST profiles to validate the results. Fish otolith shape variation has repeatedly been found to be largely determined by growth rate. To examine the effect of growth rate on the relationship between otolith shape and cod ecotypes (using the Pan I genotype as a proxy for ecotype), 826 archived sagittal otoliths collected over a 58 year sampling period were retrieved, the individual growth rate calculated, and otolith shape described using both Normalized Elliptic Fourier transform and Discrete Wavelet transform. Discriminant functions of otolith shape successfully classified ecotype, whether using Fourier or Wavelet descriptors, but only when excluding a heterozygous genotype from the analysis. The otolith shape variability of this genotype lowered the classification success, while otolith shape, in turn, was significantly affected by growth rate and cohort. Growth rate differences previously reported for the ecotypes were present, but were less marked than expected and indeed, growth rate variance attributable to ecotype identity was dwarfed by cohort- and location-related variance in growth. Such a strong effect of growth rate suggests that cod ecotype discrimination based on otolith shape is sensitive to both temporal and spatial variations in growth, which can mask the effect of ecotype-related growth rate differences on otolith shape.

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world’s largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock’s feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population’s age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock’s historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Fisheries-induced evolution has become a major branch of the research on anthropogenic and contemporary evolution. Within the conservation context, fisheries-induced evolution has been hypothesized to negatively affect the persistence and recovery potential of depleted populations, but this has not been explicitly investigated. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) life histories affects per capita population growth rate, a parameter negatively correlated with extinction risk. We simulate the evolutionary and ecological dynamics of a cod population for a 100 year period of size-selective harvesting, followed thereafter by 300 years of recovery. To evaluate the relative importance of harvest-induced evolution, we either allowed life histories to evolve during and after the fishing period, or we assumed that fisheries-induced evolution was absent. Population growth rates did not differ appreciably between the evolutionary and non-evolutionary simulation scenarios, despite the emergence of rather pronounced differences in life histories. The underlying reason was that in the absence of fishing the cumulative lifetime reproductive outputs were very similar among differing life histories. The results suggest that fisheries-induced evolution might not always have as clear-cut an effect on population growth rate as previously anticipated.

This study aims to explore how well simple statistical modeling can generate short-term predictions and long-term projections of the total biomass of the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod ( Gadus Morhua ) inhabiting the Barents Sea. We examine the predictability of statistical models only based on hydrographic and lower trophic level biological variables from dynamical modeling. Simple and multiple linear regression models are developed based on gridded variables from the regional ocean model NEMO-NAA10km and the ecosystem model NORWECOM.E2E. This includes the essential environmental variables temperature, salinity, sea ice concentration, primary production and secondary production. The regression models are statistically evaluated to find variables that can capture variability in Barents Sea cod biomass. Finally, future total cod stock biomass is projected by applying the best found regression models to the range of downscaled IPCC climate scenarios from the coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). Our prediction models are based on variables that affect cod both directly and indirectly. We find that several regression models have high prediction skill and capture the variations in total stock biomass of the Northeast Arctic cod well. Our results suggest that increased ocean temperature and abundant zooplankton may lead to a large cod stock. However, even if total stock biomass has a positive trend with an increase in copepods in the highest warming scenario SSP5–8.5, we found that it has a negative trend in the low emission scenario SSP1–2.6 when the regional ocean and ecosystem models show weak cooling and reduced zooplankton. We show that variability in essential environmental variables can provide a remarkably good first approximation to cod dynamics. However, to resolve the full picture other factors like fishing and natural mortality also need to be addressed explicitly.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly implemented as tools to conserve and manage fisheries and target species. Because there are opportunity costs to conservation, there is a need for science-based assessment of MPAs. Here, we present one of the northernmost documentations of MPA effects to date, demonstrated by a replicated before–after control-impact (BACI) approach. In 2006, MPAs were implemented along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast offering complete protection to shellfish and partial protection to fish. By 2010, European lobster (Homarus gammarus) catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) had increased by 245 per cent in MPAs, whereas CPUE in control areas had increased by 87 per cent. Mean size of lobsters increased by 13 per cent in MPAs, whereas increase in control areas was negligible. Furthermore, MPA-responses and population development in control areas varied significantly among regions. This illustrates the importance of a replicated BACI design for reaching robust conclusions and management decisions. Partial protection of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) was followed by an increase in population density and body size compared with control areas. By 2010, MPA cod were on average 5 cm longer than in any of the control areas. MPAs can be useful management tools in rebuilding and conserving portions of depleted lobster populations in northern temperate waters, and even for a mobile temperate fish species such as the Atlantic cod.