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Crafting paper flowers : a visual guide to breathtaking botanicals
\"\"Craft realistic paper flowers that stun and delight! Follow step-by-step instructions to create different plants and flowers, from zinnias and peonies to ginkgos and ferns. Each flower is broken down into individual pieces, making the projects accessible to all craft levels. Combine these projects for stunning arrangements, garlands, and more\"-- Provided by publisher\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
A better measure of relative prediction accuracy for model selection and model estimation
Surveys show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the most widely used measure of prediction accuracy in businesses and organizations. It is, however, biased: when used to select among competing prediction methods it systematically selects those whose predictions are too low. This has not been widely discussed and so is not generally known among practitioners. We explain why this happens. We investigate an alternative relative accuracy measure which avoids this bias: the log of the accuracy ratio, that is, log (prediction/actual). Relative accuracy is particularly relevant if the scatter in the data grows as the value of the variable grows (heteroscedasticity). We demonstrate using simulations that for heteroscedastic data (modelled by a multiplicative error factor) the proposed metric is far superior to MAPE for model selection. Another use for accuracy measures is in fitting parameters to prediction models. Minimum MAPE models do not predict a simple statistic and so theoretical analysis is limited. We prove that when the proposed metric is used instead, the resulting least squares regression model predicts the geometric mean. This important property allows its theoretical properties to be understood.
Journal Article
Channel coordination in green supply chain management
Environmental consciousness has become increasingly important in everyday life and business practice. The effort to reduce the impact of business activities on the environment has been labelled as green supply chain management. Any major greening project would require efforts on the part of the entire supply chain. However, very few studies have addressed the issue of coordinating the green supply chain. We consider the problem of coordination of a manufacturer and a retailer in a vertical supply chain, who put in efforts for 'greening' their operations. We address some pertinent questions in this regard such as extent of effort in greening of operations by manufacturer or retailer, level of cooperation between the two parties, and how to coordinate their operations in a supply chain. The greening efforts by the manufacturer and retailer result in demand expansion at the retail end. The decision variables of the manufacturer are wholesale price and greening effort, while those of the retailer are retail price and its greening effort. We find that the ratio of the optimal greening efforts put in by the manufacturer and retailer is equal to the ratio of their green sensitivity ratios and greening cost ratios. Further, profits and efforts are higher in the integrated channel as compared to the case of the decentralized channel. Finally, a two-part tariff contract is found to produce channel coordination in this problem. A numerical example illustrates the results.
Journal Article
Inventory and shelf-space optimization for fresh produce with expiration date under freshness-and-stock-dependent demand rate
It is well documented that the demand for fresh produce, to a great extent, depends on how fresh it is and an increase in shelf space for displayed stocks may induce more purchase of the produce. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the effect of expiration date despite the fact that produce deteriorates over time and expiration dates are often an important factor in consumers' purchase decision. In this paper, we propose an economic order quantity model in which we explicitly specify the demand for fresh produce to be a function of its freshness-expiration date and displayed volume. With the demand being freshness-and-stock dependent, it may be profitable to maintain high stock level at the end of the replenishment cycle. Hence, we relax the traditional assumption of zero ending inventory to non-zero ending inventory. Consequently, the objective here is to determine the optimal level of shelf space size, replenishment cycle time, and/or ending inventory level in an effort of maximizing the total annual profit. We found that the total annual profit is strictly pseudo-concave with regard to the three decision variables, which simplifies the search for the global solution to a local optimal. Numerical examples are then presented to highlight the theoretical implications and managerial insights.
Journal Article
Good Laboratory Practice for optimization research
Good Laboratory Practice has been a part of non-clinical research for over 40 years. Optimization Research, despite having many papers discussing standards being published over the same period of time, has yet to embrace standards that underpin its research. In this paper we argue the need to adopt standards in optimization research. Building on previous papers, many of which have suggested that the optimization research community should adopt certain standards, we suggest a concrete set of recommendations that the community should adopt. We also discuss how the proposals in this paper could be progressed.
Journal Article
An interval type-2 fuzzy sets-based TODIM method and its application to green supplier selection
With the increasing awareness and significant environmental pressures from various stakeholders, companies have realized the significance of selecting green suppliers to their supply chain activities, which involves multiple criteria with uncertainty and the decision makers' behaviour with irrational. Interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FSs) have advantages in modelling uncertainty over type-1 fuzzy sets. And TODIM is an useful non-linear prospect model for selecting the irrationally determined alternatives, but the ratings and weights are crisp values. In this paper, we develop the IT2 FSs-based TODIM method to select green supplier. First, we introduce a new distance computing method for IT2 FSs to assist the dominance models to deal with gains (losses) computation. Second, we identify the gains (losses) computing expression through comparing the ranking values of the IT2 FSs evaluations, and obtain the dominance degree of one alternative over others. Third, we use the presented IT2 FSs ranking method using possibility mean and variation coefficient concepts to defuzzify the dominance degree, and obtain the crisp global performance to select the best alternative. Finally, we also apply the proposed IT2 FSs-based TODIM method to green supplier selection for automobile manufacturers.
Journal Article
On the suitability of resampling techniques for the class imbalance problem in credit scoring
In real-life credit scoring applications, the case in which the class of defaulters is under-represented in comparison with the class of non-defaulters is a very common situation, but it has still received little attention. The present paper investigates the suitability and performance of several resampling techniques when applied in conjunction with statistical and artificial intelligence prediction models over five real-world credit data sets, which have artificially been modified to derive different imbalance ratios (proportion of defaulters and non-defaulters examples). Experimental results demonstrate that the use of resampling methods consistently improves the performance given by the original imbalanced data. Besides, it is also important to note that in general, over-sampling techniques perform better than any under-sampling approach.
Journal Article
Supply chain coordination in quality improvement with reference effects
With increasing public attention on product quality, supply chain quality management has been the focus of considerable research attention in recent years. However, only a few published articles have considered reference effects in supply chain quality management. In practice, reference effects influence consumer purchasing behaviours. Therefore, we have developed a dynamic model that incorporates the effects of the reference quality and reference price on the demand function of a 'single-supplier single-manufacturer' supply chain system. In our model, the demand function is assumed to be influenced by the reference price and reference quality. The reference price formation is assumed to be affected by the gap between quality and the reference quality. By utilizing differential game theory, we calculate and compare the open-loop equilibrium quality levels in two different scenarios: (i) Each channel member makes decisions within a subsidy programme and (ii) the supplier vertically integrates with the manufacturer. In addition, a total cost-sharing contract based on quality improvement efforts is proposed and proven to be effective in the supply chain system that is under consideration.
Journal Article
Forecast combinations for intermittent demand
Intermittent demand is characterised by infrequent demand arrivals, where many periods have zero demand, coupled with varied demand sizes. The dual source of variation renders forecasting for intermittent demand a very challenging task. Many researchers have focused on the development of specialised methods for intermittent demand. However, apart from a case study on hierarchical forecasting, the effects of combining, which is a standard practice for regular demand, have not been investigated. This paper empirically explores the efficiency of forecast combinations in the intermittent demand context. We examine both method and temporal combinations of forecasts. The first are based on combinations of different methods on the same time series, while the latter use combinations of forecasts produced on different views of the time series, based on temporal aggregation. Temporal combinations of single or multiple methods are investigated, leading to a new time-series classification, which leads to model selection and combination. Results suggest that appropriate combinations lead to improved forecasting performance over single methods, as well as simplifying the forecasting process by limiting the need for manual selection of methods or hyper-parameters of good performing benchmarks. This has direct implications for intermittent demand forecasting in practice.
Journal Article
Applications of simulation within the healthcare context
A large number of studies have applied simulation to a multitude of issues relating to healthcare. These studies have been published in a number of unrelated publishing outlets, which may hamper the widespread reference and use of such resources. In this paper, we analyse existing research in healthcare simulation in order to categorise and synthesise it in a meaningful manner. Hence, the aim of this paper is to conduct a review of the literature pertaining to simulation research within healthcare in order to ascertain its current development. A review of approximately 250 high-quality journal papers published between 1970 and 2007 on healthcare-related simulation research was conducted. The results present a classification of the healthcare publications according to the simulation techniques they employ; the impact of published literature in healthcare simulation; a report on demonstration and implementation of the studies' results; the sources of funding; and the software used. Healthcare planners and researchers will benefit from this study by having ready access to an indicative article collection of simulation techniques applied to healthcare problems that are clustered under meaningful headings. This study facilitates the understanding of the potential of different simulation techniques in solving diverse healthcare problems.
Journal Article