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Motivated by empirical evidence I uncover on the dynamics of French firms' exports, I offer a novel theory of trade frictions. Firms export only into markets where they have a contact. They search directly for new trading partners, but also use their existing network of contacts to search remotely for new partners. I characterize the dynamic formation of an international network of exporters in this model. Structurally, I estimate this model on French data and confirm its predictions regarding the distribution of the number of foreign markets accessed by exporters and the geographic distribution of exports.

There are two competing hypotheses for the origin of the Indo-European language family. The conventional view places the homeland in the Pontic steppes about 6000 years ago. An alternative hypothesis claims that the languages spread from Anatolia with the expansion of farming 8000 to 9500 years ago. We used Bayesian phylogeographic approaches, together with basic vocabulary data from 103 ancient and contemporary Indo-European languages, to explicitly model the expansion of the family and test these hypotheses. We found decisive support for an Anatolian origin over a steppe origin. Both the inferred timing and root location of the Indo-European language trees fit with an agricultural expansion from Anatolia beginning 8000 to 9500 years ago. These results highlight the critical role that phylogeographic inference can play in resolving debates about human prehistory.

Imagine that you are blindfolded inside an unknown room. You snap your fingers and listen to the room’s response. Can you hear the shape of the room? Some people can do it naturally, but can we design computer algorithms that hear rooms? We show how to compute the shape of a convex polyhedral room from its response to a known sound, recorded by a few microphones. Geometric relationships between the arrival times of echoes enable us to “blindfoldedly” estimate the room geometry. This is achieved by exploiting the properties of Euclidean distance matrices. Furthermore, we show that under mild conditions, first-order echoes provide a unique description of convex polyhedral rooms. Our algorithm starts from the recorded impulse responses and proceeds by learning the correct assignment of echoes to walls. In contrast to earlier methods, the proposed algorithm reconstructs the full 3D geometry of the room from a single sound emission, and with an arbitrary geometry of the microphone array. As long as the microphones can hear the echoes, we can position them as we want. Besides answering a basic question about the inverse problem of room acoustics, our results find applications in areas such as architectural acoustics, indoor localization, virtual reality, and audio forensics.

Recently, single molecule-based superresolution fluorescence microscopy has surpassed the diffraction limit to improve resolution to the order of 20 nm or better. These methods typically use image fitting that assumes an isotropic emission pattern from the single emitters as well as control of the emitter concentration. However, anisotropic single-molecule emission patterns arise from the transition dipole when it is rotationally immobile, depending highly on the molecule’s 3D orientation and z position. Failure to account for this fact can lead to significant lateral (x , y) mislocalizations (up to ∼50–200 nm). This systematic error can cause distortions in the reconstructed images, which can translate into degraded resolution. Using parameters uniquely inherent in the double-lobed nature of the Double-Helix Point Spread Function, we account for such mislocalizations and simultaneously measure 3D molecular orientation and 3D position. Mislocalizations during an axial scan of a single molecule manifest themselves as an apparent lateral shift in its position, which causes the standard deviation (SD) of its lateral position to appear larger than the SD expected from photon shot noise. By correcting each localization based on an estimated orientation, we are able to improve SDs in lateral localization from ∼2× worse than photon-limited precision (48 vs. 25 nm) to within 5 nm of photon-limited precision. Furthermore, by averaging many estimations of orientation over different depths, we are able to improve from a lateral SD of 116 (∼4× worse than the photon-limited precision; 28 nm) to 34 nm (within 6 nm of the photon limit).

This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China’s Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 μg/m ³ [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m ³ of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).

This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is an event dataset that disaggregates three types of organized violence (state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence) both spatially and temporally. Each event — defined as an instance of organized violence with at least one fatality — comes with date, geographical location, and identifiers that allow the dataset to be linked to and merged with other UCDP datasets. The first version of the dataset covers events of fatal violence on the African continent between 1989 and 2010. This article, firstly, introduces the rationale for the new dataset, and explains the basic coding procedures as well as the quality controls. Secondly, we discuss some of the data's potential weaknesses in representing the universe of organized violence, as well as some potential biases induced by the operationalizations. Thirdly, we provide an example of how the data can be used, by illustrating the association between cities and organized violence, taking population density into account. The UCDP GED is a useful resource for conflict analyses below the state and country-year levels, and can provide us with new insights into the geographical determinants and temporal sequencing of warfare and violence.

This article presents ACLED, an Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset. ACLED codes the actions of rebels, governments, and militias within unstable states, specifying the exact location and date of battle events, transfers of military control, headquarter establishment, civilian violence, and rioting. In the current version, the dataset covers 50 unstable countries from 1997 through 2010. ACLED's disaggregation of civil war and transnational violent events allow for research on local level factors and the dynamics of civil and communal conflict. Findings from subnational conflict research challenges conclusions from larger national-level studies. In a brief descriptive analysis, the authors find that, on average, conflict covers 15% of a state's territory, but almost half of a state can be directly affected by internal wars.

We demonstrate single-molecule fluorescence imaging beyond the optical diffraction limit in 3 dimensions with a wide-field microscope that exhibits a double-helix point spread function (DH-PSF). The DH-PSF design features high and uniform Fisher information and has 2 dominant lobes in the image plane whose angular orientation rotates with the axial (z) position of the emitter. Single fluorescent molecules in a thick polymer sample are localized in single 500-ms acquisitions with 10- to 20-nm precision over a large depth of field (2 μm) by finding the center of the 2 DH-PSF lobes. By using a photoactivatable fluorophore, repeated imaging of sparse subsets with a DH-PSF microscope provides superresolution imaging of high concentrations of molecules in all 3 dimensions. The combination of optical PSF design and digital postprocessing with photoactivatable fluorophores opens up avenues for improving 3D imaging resolution beyond the Rayleigh diffraction limit.

The 26S proteasome is at the executive end of the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway for the controlled degradation of intracellular proteins. While the structure of its 20S core particle (CP) has been determined by X-ray crystallography, the structure of the 19S regulatory particle (RP), which recruits substrates, unfolds them, and translocates them to the CP for degradation, has remained elusive. Here, we describe the molecular architecture of the 26S holocomplex determined by an integrative approach based on data from cryoelectron microscopy, X-ray crystallography, residue-specific chemical cross-linking, and several proteomics techniques. The \"lid\" of the RP (consisting of Rpn3/5/6/7/8/9/11/12) is organized in a modular fashion. Rpn3/5/6/7/9/12 form a horseshoe-shaped heterohexamer, which connects to the CP and roofs the AAA-ATPase module, positioning the Rpn8/Rpn11 heterodimer close to its mouth. Rpn2 is rigid, supporting the lid, while Rpn1 is conformationally variable, positioned at the periphery of the ATPase ring. The ubiquitin receptors Rpn10 and Rpn13 are located in the distal part of the RP, indicating that they were recruited to the complex late in its evolution. The modular structure of the 26S proteasome provides insights into the sequence of events prior to the degradation of ubiquitylated substrates.

Human perception, cognition, and action are laced with seemingly arbitrary mappings. In particular, sound has a strong spatial connotation: Sounds are high and low, melodies rise and fall, and pitch systematically biases perceived sound elevation. The origins of such mappings are unknown. Are they the result of physiological constraints, do they reflect natural environmental statistics, or are they truly arbitrary? We recorded natural sounds from the environment, analyzed the elevation-dependent filtering of the outer ear, and measured frequency-dependent biases in human sound localization. We find that auditory scene statistics reveals a clear mapping between frequency and elevation. Perhaps more interestingly, this natural statistical mapping is tightly mirrored in both ear-filtering properties and in perceived sound location. This suggests that both sound localization behavior and ear anatomy are fine-tuned to the statistics of natural auditory scenes, likely providing the basis for the spatial connotation of human hearing.