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Glaciers in High Mountain Asia generate meltwater that supports the water needs of 250 million people, but current knowledge of annual accumulation and ablation is limited to sparse field measurements biased in location and glacier size. Here, we present altitudinally-resolved specific mass balances (surface, internal, and basal combined) for 5527 glaciers in High Mountain Asia for 2000–2016, derived by correcting observed glacier thinning patterns for mass redistribution due to ice flow. We find that 41% of glaciers accumulated mass over less than 20% of their area, and only 60% ± 10% of regional annual ablation was compensated by accumulation. Even without 21 st century warming, 21% ± 1% of ice volume will be lost by 2100 due to current climatic-geometric imbalance, representing a reduction in glacier ablation into rivers of 28% ± 1%. The ablation of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tien Shan was mostly unsustainable and ice volume in these regions will reduce by at least 30% by 2100. The most important and vulnerable glacier-fed river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Syr Darya, Tarim Interior) were supplied with >50% sustainable glacier ablation but will see long-term reductions in ice mass and glacier meltwater supply regardless of the Karakoram Anomaly. Glaciers in High Mountain Asia are a key water resource. The authors use remote sensing data and a regional implementation of the continuity equation to quantify glacier ablation and accumulation rates for 2000–2016, and establish current climatic-geometric imbalances that imply strong reductions in ice volume by 2100.

Karakoram glaciers experienced balanced or slightly positive mass budgets since at least the 1970s. Here, we provide an update on the state of balance of Central and Eastern Karakoram glaciers (12 000 km2) between 2008 and 2016 by differencing DEMs derived from satellite optical images. The mass budget of Central Karakoram glaciers was slightly positive (0.12 ± 0.14 m w.e. a−1) while eastern Karakoram glaciers lost mass (−0.24 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1). The glacier-wide mass balances of surge-type and nonsurge-type glaciers were not statistically different. Our elevation change data also depict the effect of a > 100 Mm3 rock avalanche on Siachen Glacier ablation area in September 2010. It covered a 4 km2 area with a thick debris layer that unexpectedly, led to locally enhanced glacier mass loss during the following years. Enhanced melt opened a > 100 m deep 2 km2 depression and contributed to 6% of the mass loss of Siachen Glacier from 2010 to 2016 (−0.39 m w.e. a−1). We hypothesize that sub- or englacial melt may be responsible for this intriguing behaviour. This study contributes to a better knowledge of the regional pattern of the Karakoram anomaly and of the influence of rock avalanches on glacier mass changes.

Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors of meltwater runoff and to global sea level rise. However, knowledge of GIC mass changes is largely restricted to the last few decades. Here we show the extent of 5327 Greenland GICs during Little Ice Age (LIA) termination (1900) and reveal that they have fragmented into 5467 glaciers in 2001, losing at least 587 km3 from their ablation areas, equating to 499 Gt at a rate of 4.34 Gt yr−1. We estimate that the long‐term mean mass balance in glacier ablation areas has been at least −0.18 to −0.22 m w.e. yr−1 and note the rate between 2000 and 2019 has been three times that. Glaciers with ice‐marginal lakes formed since the LIA termination have had the fastest changing mass balance. Considerable spatial variability in glacier changes suggest compounding regional and local factors present challenges for understanding glacier evolution. Plain Language Summary Glaciers and ice caps of Greenland peripheral to the ice sheet are important contributors of meltwater to the oceans and to global sea‐level rise. In this study we map the extent of 5467 glaciers during the Little Ice Age (LIA) termination c. 1900 and calculate that they have lost at least 587 km3. The rate of mass change of these glaciers between 2000 and 2019 was three times more negative than the long‐term average (of 4.34 Gt yr−1) since the LIA. Lake‐terminating glaciers now lose mass the fastest compared with land‐ or marine‐terminating glaciers. Considerable spatial variability in glacier responses suggests local factors are important and makes glacier evolution complex. Key Points Total volume loss of at least 587 km3 since the Little Ice Age (LIA) termination, equating to 499 Gt and to 1.38 mm sea level equivalent Glacier mass balance from 2000 to 2019 is three times more negative than since the LIA but five times more negative in the North region Lake‐terminating glaciers have experienced the greatest change in rate of mass loss

The climate in Svalbard is undergoing amplified change compared to the global mean. This has major implications for runoff from glaciers and seasonal snow on land. We use a coupled energy balance–subsurface model, forced with downscaled regional climate model fields, and apply it to both glacier-covered and land areas in Svalbard. This generates a long-term (1957–2018) distributed dataset of climatic mass balance (CMB) for the glaciers, snow conditions, and runoff with a 1 km×1 km spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolution. Observational data including stake measurements, automatic weather station data, and subsurface data across Svalbard are used for model calibration and validation. We find a weakly positive mean net CMB (+0.09 m w.e. a−1) over the simulation period, which only fractionally compensates for mass loss through calving. Pronounced warming and a small precipitation increase lead to a spatial-mean negative net CMB trend (−0.06 m w.e. a−1 decade−1), and an increase in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) by 17 m decade−1, with the largest changes in southern and central Svalbard. The retreating ELA in turn causes firn air volume to decrease by 4 % decade−1, which in combination with winter warming induces a substantial reduction of refreezing in both glacier-covered and land areas (average −4 % decade−1). A combination of increased melt and reduced refreezing causes glacier runoff (average 34.3 Gt a−1) to double over the simulation period, while discharge from land (average 10.6 Gt a−1) remains nearly unchanged. As a result, the relative contribution of land runoff to total runoff drops from 30 % to 20 % during 1957–2018. Seasonal snow on land and in glacier ablation zones is found to arrive later in autumn (+1.4 d decade−1), while no significant changes occurred on the date of snow disappearance in spring–summer. Altogether, the output of the simulation provides an extensive dataset that may be of use in a wide range of applications ranging from runoff modelling to ecosystem studies.

The Himalayan mountain system to the north of the Indian land mass with arcuate strike of NW–SE for about 2400 km holds one of the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar regions in its high-altitude regions. Perennial snow and ice-melt from these frozen reservoirs is used in catchments and alluvial plains of the three major Himalayan river systems, i.e. the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra for irrigation, hydropower generation, production of bio-resources and fulfilling the domestic water demand. Also, variations in the extent of these glaciers are understood to be a sensitive indicator of climatic variations of the earth system and might have implications on the availability of water resources in the river systems. Therefore, mapping and monitoring of these fresh-water resources is required for the planning of water resources and understanding the impact of climatic variations. Thus a study has been carried out to find the change in the extent of Himalayan glaciers during the last decade using IRS LISS III images of 2000/01/02 and 2010/11. Two thousand and eighteen glaciers representing climatically diverse terrains in the Himalaya were mapped and monitored. It includes glaciers of Karakoram, Himachal, Zanskar, Uttarakhand, Nepal and Sikkim regions. Among these, 1752 glaciers (86.8%) were observed having stable fronts (no change in the snout position and area of ablation zone), 248 (12.3%) exhibited retreat and 18 (0.9%) of them exhibited advancement of snout. The net loss in 10,250.68 sq. km area of the 2018 glaciers put together was found to be 20.94 sq. km or 0.2% (± 2.5% of 20.94 sq. km).

Temperature index (TI) models are convenient for modelling glacier ablation since they require only a few input variables and rely on simple empirical relations. The approach is generally assumed to be reliable at lower elevations (below 3500 m above sea level, a.s.l) where air temperature ( T a ) relates well to the energy inputs driving melt. We question this approach in High Mountain Asia (HMA). We study in-situ meteorological drivers of glacial ablation at two sites in central Nepal, between 2013 and 2017, using data from six automatic weather stations (AWS). During the monsoon, surface melt dominates ablation processes at lower elevations (between 4950 and 5380 m a.s.l.). As net shortwave radiation ( SW net ) is the main energy input at the glacier surface, albedo ( α ) and cloudiness play key roles while being highly variable in space and time. For these cases only, ablation can be calculated with a TI model, or with an Enhanced TI (ETI) model that includes a shortwave radiation ( SW ) scheme and site specific ablation factors. In the ablation zone during other seasons and during all seasons in the accumulation zone, sublimation and other wind-driven ablation processes also contribute to mass loss, and remain unresolved with TI or ETI methods.

Glacier retreat is altering the water regime of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) as the region's climate changes, but there remain substantial gaps in our knowledge of recent glacier loss in this region due to the difficulty of making direct high-mountain observations, and this limits our ability to predict the future of this important water resource. Here, we assessed 44 years of glacier area and volume changes in the major west Nyainqentanglha Range (WNR) that supplies meltwater to the densely populated Lhasa River basin and Nam Co, the second largest endorheic lake on the TP. Between the two periods 1976–2000 and 2000–2020, we found that the glacier areal retreat rate more than doubled (from -0.54±0.21 % a−1 to -1.17±0.30 % a−1), and surface lowering also accelerated (from -0.26±0.09 to -0.37±0.15 m w.e a−1) with particularly intense melting after 2014. This acceleration is similar in both timing and magnitude to that observed for Himalayan glaciers farther south. Besides, the areal retreat rate and mass loss rate of most glaciers in the WNR were not synchronized. To understand the sensitivity of WNR glaciers to climate forcing, we examined the effects of topography, debris cover and the presence of proglacial lakes on our observed changes. We found consistently faster areal retreat but slower thinning rates on steeper slopes and an inconsistent relationship with aspect. We concluded that our observed spatial and temporal patterns of glacier change were dominated by observed local variations in temperature and precipitation, the melt-reducing role of supraglacial debris, and the increasing influence of ice-marginal lakes on glacier ablation.

Distributed glacier melt models generally assume that the glacier surface consists of bare exposed ice and snow. In reality, many glaciers are wholly or partially covered in layers of debris that tend to suppress ablation rates. In this paper, an existing physically based point model for the ablation of debris‐covered ice is incorporated in a distributed melt model and applied to Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland, which has three large patches of debris cover on its surface. The model is based on a 10 m resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the area; each glacier pixel in the DEM is defined as either bare or debris‐covered ice, and may be covered in snow that must be melted off before ice ablation is assumed to occur. Each debris‐covered pixel is assigned a debris thickness value using probability distributions based on over 1000 manual thickness measurements. Locally observed meteorological data are used to run energy balance calculations in every pixel, using an approach suitable for snow, bare ice or debris‐covered ice as appropriate. The use of the debris model significantly reduces the total ablation in the debris‐covered areas, however the precise reduction is sensitive to the temperature extrapolation used in the model distribution because air near the debris surface tends to be slightly warmer than over bare ice. Overall results suggest that the debris patches, which cover 10% of the glacierized area, reduce total runoff from the glacierized part of the basin by up to 7%. Key Points Including the effect of debris in a distributed glacier melt model Modeling debris distribution from observations using randomly generated maps Debris reduces surface melt over Haut Glacier d'Arolla by 7% over one season

Studies on recent climate trends from the Himalayan range are limited, and even completely absent at high elevation (> 5000 m a.s.l.). This study specifically explores the southern slopes of Mt. Everest, analyzing the time series of temperature and precipitation reconstructed from seven stations located between 2660 and 5600 m a.s.l. during 1994–2013, complemented with the data from all existing ground weather stations located on both sides of the mountain range (Koshi Basin) over the same period. Overall we find that the main and most significant increase in temperature is concentrated outside of the monsoon period. Above 5000 m a.s.l. the increasing trend in the time series of minimum temperature (+0.072 °C yr−1) is much stronger than of maximum temperature (+0.009 °C yr−1), while the mean temperature increased by +0.044 °C yr−1. Moreover, we note a substantial liquid precipitation weakening (−9.3 mm yr−1) during the monsoon season. The annual rate of decrease in precipitation at higher elevations is similar to the one at lower elevations on the southern side of the Koshi Basin, but the drier conditions of this remote environment make the fractional loss much more consistent (−47% during the monsoon period). Our results challenge the assumptions on whether temperature or precipitation is the main driver of recent glacier mass changes in the region. The main implications are the following: (1) the negative mass balances of glaciers observed in this region can be more ascribed to a decrease in accumulation (snowfall) than to an increase in surface melting; (2) the melting has only been favoured during winter and spring months and close to the glaciers terminus; (3) a decrease in the probability of snowfall (−10%) has made a significant impact only at glacier ablation zone, but the magnitude of this decrease is distinctly lower than the observed decrease in precipitation; (4) the decrease in accumulation could have caused the observed decrease in glacier flow velocity and the current stagnation of glacier termini, which in turn could have produced more melting under the debris glacier cover, leading to the formation of numerous supraglacial and proglacial lakes that have characterized the region in the last decades.

We describe volumetric changes in three benchmark glaciers in the Nepal Himalayas on which observations have been made since the 1970s. Compared with the global mean of glacier mass balance, the Himalayan glaciers showed rapid wastage in the 1970s–1990s, but similar wastage in the last decade. In the last decade, a glacier in an arid climate showed negative but suppressed mass balance compared with the period 1970s–1990s, whereas two glaciers in a humid climate showed accelerated wastage. A mass balance model with downscaled gridded datasets depicts the fate of the observed glaciers. We also show a spatially heterogeneous distribution of glacier wastage in the Asian highlands, even under the present-day climate warming.