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Guide to investing in gold & silver : protect your financial future
Michael Maloney is widely recognized as a leading expert on monetary history, economics, economic cycles investing, and precious metals. He is CEO and founder of GoldSilver.com, one of the world's largest gold and silver bullion dealers, CEO and founder of WealthCycles.com, an educational website, and host of the most popular video series on the topics of monetary history, economics and economic cycles, The Hidden Secrets of Money.
Book
The ABCs of Gold Investing
Beginning investors will find thorough guidelines for making good decisions in this study of private gold ownership. Emphasis is placed on the asset-preservation qualities of gold at a time when investor uncertainty about the economy and recent investment scandals have led many to seek asset diversification. The economic and political trends driving gold marketing are detailed, as are the reasons why gold plays an important role in millions of investment portfolios worldwide—as both a hedge and an investment for capital gain. With revised content as well as two additional chapters, this updated version examines topics such as gold's role in combating inflation and deflation, how to select a gold firm, the history of gold since 1971, storing gold, and government debt.
eBook
The U.S. Dollar as a Dollar-Channel Proxy in Gold Return Dynamics: Evidence from 2000–2025
This study examines the determinants of gold returns over the period 2000–2025, a period marked by recurrent financial crises, geopolitical tensions, and major shifts in global monetary conditions. As gold represents both a strategic commodity and a key reserve asset, understanding the channels driving its price dynamics is central to debates in commodity finance and macro-finance. Using Lasso variable selection combined with post-Lasso estimation, block bootstrap inference, and rolling and subsample analyses, the paper investigates the role of major macro-financial factors in shaping gold returns. The results indicate that U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) movements have strong incremental explanatory power for gold returns, consistent with a reduced-form dollar-channel interpretation. At the same time, the marginal contribution of inflation, volatility, and the tariff episode becomes limited once the DXY is included. Overall, the findings contribute to the commodity-finance literature by offering a parsimonious reduced-form interpretation of gold return dynamics and by highlighting implications for commodity price risk, hedging strategies, portfolio allocation, and reserve management in an increasingly interconnected global economy.
Journal Article
An analysis of the determinants of money laundering in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Purpose
It is widely argued that money laundering (ML) is not a new phenomenon and the pervasiveness of ML is associated with some severe economic, social and political costs. Due to the lack of studies on the ML’s issue in the UAE, this study aims to examine the determinants of ML in the country between 1975 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing results demonstrate the presence of long-run relationship between ML and the selected macroeconomics variables. The analysis is validated by the dynamic ordinary least squares, the fully modified ordinary least squares and the canonical co-integration regression estimators.
Findings
The estimation result reveals that while the real estate market, outflow of money, arms procurement and size of the underground economy influences the size of ML positively, gold trade, the level of financial development and the size of economic activities are negatively associated with ML, both in the short- and long-run.
Originality/value
Up to date from a country-level analysis, no study has been devoted to the ML in UAE, except for Aljassmi et al. (2023). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the determinants of laundered money in the UAE economy. Based on these outcomes, strategies and measures which will deter the laundering of illicit funds through the real estate and gold market, remittance system, financial system and arms procurement contracts in the UAE are recommended.
Journal Article
Inflation hedging: a comparative wavelet quantile correlation analysis of real estate and alternative assets
PurposeConducting an analysis spanning from 2000 to 2023, this research evaluates the effectiveness of real estate assets in hedging against global and energy inflation, benchmarked against other compelling investment options such as oil, gold, silver and stocks.Design/methodology/approachThis study employs the wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) methodology. The latter sheds light on dynamic market interactions by scrutinising dependency structures across multiple time scales and also by capturing tail dependence. The adaptability of the wavelet transform, across a spectrum of frequencies, emerges as an indispensable tool for studying time series while also unravelling relationships among variables across diverse quantiles.FindingsThe findings reveal that the response to inflationary pressures is contingent upon the asset class, investment horizon and type of inflation under consideration. While precious metals demonstrate effectiveness over short-term horizons, French-listed real estate exhibits compelling inflation-hedging characteristics as the investment horizon extends. Oil emerges as an unequivocal hedge against both global and energy inflation.Practical implicationsTo counteract the effects of inflation, investors and households may feel compelled to refine their investment strategies, opting to bolster their portfolios with instruments proven to serve as reliable safeguards against inflation, as indicated by this study.Originality/valueIn conjunction with a surge in inflationary pressures, this study delves into the hedging capabilities of assets, exploring their efficacy not only across short- and long-term investment horizons but also within diverse scenarios characterized by fluctuating levels of global and energy-related inflation. To the best of our knowledge, no previous article employed the WQC technique to evaluate the inflation-hedging nexus.
Journal Article
Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?
We examine whether gold is an effective hedge against inflation over different time horizons. Using a stationary test with a flexible Fourier function, we consider all possible structural breaks with unknown forms and find that real gold returns over horizons ranging from 1 month to 15 years are nonlinear stationary processes. Although the real gold return may deviate from the inflation hedge rate because of holding opportunity cost and insufficient demand, over time it reverts to the long-run hedge rate. The results indicate that gold has generally maintained its purchasing power for the past 39 years. Therefore, gold can be a reliable hedge against inflation in both short and long time horizons. It is reasonable for investors to hold a certain amount of gold to hedge against the risk of inflation or to diversify assets, regardless of holding period.
Journal Article
The impact of monetary systems on income inequity and wealth distribution
PurposeThis study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) econometric approach to investigate empirically the effects of cryptocurrencies, the gold standard and traditional fiat money on global income inequality measured based on the Gini coefficient, and various ratios of income inequality distribution such as top 1 per cent, top 10 per cent, top 40 per cent and top 50 per cent.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses the ARDL econometric approach.FindingsThe findings indicated that cryptocurrency and gold standard monetary systems contributed significantly to reducing global inequality of income and wealth distribution. Conversely, the traditional fiat money system contributes positively to global income and wealth inequality while also contributing significantly to their fluctuation.Practical implicationsThis suggests that the fiat monetary system results in the coercive redistribution of income and wealth if governments pursue a social welfare policy. They must resolve this conflict between the current fiat monetary system and social policy by opting for an alternative monetary system such as cryptocurrency or gold standard. These alternative monetary systems offer the promise of resolving the income and wealth inequality associated with the traditional monetary system which are accompanied with the channels of inflation, lack of financial inclusion and debt creation, and to offer a more sustainable financial system.Originality/valueThe study recommends that monetary policy must be revisited to account for its direct effect on income and wealth redistribution to achieve social welfare goals.
Journal Article
A Century of Purchasing-Power Parity
This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century. I collected data for a group of twenty countries over 100 years, a larger historical panel of annual data than has ever been studied. The evidence for long-run PPP is favorable using recent multivariate and univariate tests of higher power. Residual variance analysis shows that episodes of floating exchange rates have generally been associated with larger deviations from PPP, as expected; this result is not attributable to significantly greater persistence (longer half-lives) of deviations in such regimes, but is due to the larger shocks to the real exchange rate process in such episodes. In the course of the twentieth century, there was relatively little change in the capacity of international market integration to smooth out real exchange rate shocks. Instead, changes in the size of shocks depended on the political economy of monetary and exchange rate regime choice under the constraints imposed by the trilemma.
Journal Article
Comparative Analysis of Gold, Art, and Wheat as Inflation Hedges
This study confirms gold’s role as a reliable inflation hedge while introducing new insights into lesser-explored assets like art and wheat. Using advanced methodologies such as the ARDL framework and LSTM deep learning, it conducts a detailed analysis of inflation-hedging dynamics, exploring non-linear relationships and unexpected inflation impacts across various asset classes. The findings reveal complex dynamics. Gold demonstrates strong long-term inflation hedging potential. The negative coefficient for the US dollar index suggests that gold acts as a hedge against currency depreciation. Furthermore, a positive relationship between gold returns and inflation during high inflation periods highlights its effectiveness in protecting purchasing power. Art presents a more intricate picture. Long-term analysis suggests a weak mean-reverting tendency, but a negative relationship with inflation, potentially linked to economic downturns. Interestingly, unexpected inflation positively correlates with art returns in the long run, hinting at its potential inflation-hedging abilities. No statistically significant connection between wheat prices and overall inflation was observed; the short-run analysis reveals a dynamic interplay between inflation, real GDP growth, and wheat prices at different time points.
Journal Article
The Macro Lens: Exploring the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on India’s Small Cap, Mid Cap, and Large Cap Indices
This study explores the intricate relationship between key macroeconomic variables and India’s equity market segments, specifically the NIFTY Small-cap, Mid-cap, and Large-cap indices. The primary objective is to evaluate how selected macroeconomic factors influence market dynamics and investor sentiment in the Indian context. The research analyses monthly data spanning five years, from January 2019 to January 2024. The macroeconomic indicators considered include Foreign Institutional Investment (FII), Domestic Institutional Investment (DII), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), Treasury Bill Rate, Gold Price, and Reverse Repo Rate. Statistical techniques such as the Unit Root Test, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and Granger Causality Test are employed to assess the short-term and long-term impacts of these variables on market indices. The findings reveal that GDP, CPI, PMI, and Gold Price exhibit no statistically significant influence on the NIFTY Small-cap, Mid-cap, or Large-cap indices, aligning with certain earlier studies. However, variables like FII, DII, Treasury Bill Rate, and Reverse Repo Rate show varying degrees of influence across the indices, highlighting the complex and segmented nature of the Indian equity market. These insights are valuable for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts in refining investment strategies, informing policy frameworks, and enhancing market forecasting models. The study underscores the need for continuous evaluation of macroeconomic influences to better navigate market volatility and investor behaviour.
Journal Article