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The powerful relationship between education and voter turnout is arguably the most well-documented and robust finding in American survey research. Yet the causal interpretation of this relationship remains controversial, with many authors suggesting that the apparent link between education and turnout is spurious. In contrast to previous work, which has relied on observational data to assess the effect of education on voter turnout, this article analyzes two randomized experiments and one quasi-experiment in which educational attainment was altered exogenously. We track the children in these experiments over the long term, examining their voting rates as adults. In all three studies, we find that exogenously induced changes in high school graduation rates have powerful effects on voter turnout rates. These results imply that the correlation between education and turnout is indeed causal. We discuss some of the pathways by which education may transmit its influence.

The current study examined the relationship between faculty gender diversity (GD) and college and university level outcomes and the role that diversity climate (DC) plays in these relationships in a sample of N = 282 4-year, public and private, non-profit, degree granting institutions in the U.S. Based on social categorization and signaling theories, we hypothesized a negative effect of increasing percentages of female faculty on institutional student graduation and retention rates measured at three points in time. We also hypothesized that these negative effects would be attenuated in higher education institutions with more positive DCs. Results revealed that faculty GD had a consistent linear negative effect on graduation and retention rates with little evidence for a moderating effect of DC. Supplemental analyses using cross-lagged panel analyses on a larger sample of 4-year, public and private, non-profit, U.S. degree granting institutions found that these negative effects were consistent across time, lending support for the causal effect of faculty GD.

Institutional graduation rates occupy a prominent place in institutional research and public policy. Graduation rates are used in the College Scorecard, state performance funding initiatives, and potentially affect a significant proportion of public institutions revenues. Despite their widespread use, research suggests that institutional graduation rates are most strongly related to students’ entering characteristics and stable institutional characteristics, but are only weakly related to characteristics institutions can directly control. One set of institutional characteristics that appears to be related to graduation rates are expenditures for instruction, academic support, student services, and institutional support. However, inconsistencies in research findings raise the possibility that estimates of the effects of expenditures on graduation rates may be biased due to omitted variables (i.e., unobserved heterogeneity). The present research uses within-/between-effects panel data models with IPEDS panel data to account for omitted variable bias and examine the effects of institutional characteristics, cohort characteristics, and institutional expenditures on graduation rates.

This paper examines the propensity of African American students to graduate from Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). Using IPEDS data from 2004 to 2016, we take care in developing a control group of institutions from which to compare HBCU success. Results suggest that despite accepting more students who are at risk of not graduating, HBCUs have a higher graduation rate for African American students than their peers. We then show that gender nor major choice help explain this persistent difference.

This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008–2009 and 2014–2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable selection in modeling graduation rates. Evidence suggests that graduation rates can be predicted by religious affiliation, proportion of students enrolled full-time, socioeconomic status of the student body, enrollment size and institutional revenue and expenditures. Findings also demonstrate that relatively fewer variables predict institutional graduation rates for Latina/o and African American students at 4-year BAIs. We conclude with implications for policy and key recommendations for research focused on 4-year BAIs.

The Graduation Success Rate (GSR) plays a critical role supporting the NCAA’s Collegiate Model of amateur college athletics. The NCAA created the GSR to correct a statistical bias in the legally mandated Federal Graduation Rate (FGR) that causes it to underestimate rates. But the GSR’s attempted correction causes it to overestimate rates. This paper reports the first estimate of the size of this statistical bias. The focus is on the big revenue sport of men’s basketball in the so-called Power Conferences. The small size of basketball squads allows a reasonably accurate estimate of GSR cohort sizes based on publically available data. This in turn enables the calculation of a “corrected” GSR. The results indicate that the GSR exaggeration is large, perhaps as much as 20 percentage points. This raises fundamental questions about the success of the GSR as a useful graduation rate metric.

The Youth in Transition Survey is used to follow the postsecondary education (PSE) pathways and outcomes of Canadian youth over the mid 2000s. Students starting at community colleges and four year universities are analyzed separately. First program outcomes are reported, showing the proportions of students who leave their first programs but remain in PSE by switching/transferring to other programs, institutions, or levels. Multinomial regression estimates correlates of students' first program switching and leaving decisions. Five year graduation rates are calculated to show the importance of different pathways (across programs, institutions, and levels) to earning a PSE credential; in the aggregate and for subgroups of students. Transfers constitute important but not terribly large pathways for Canadian students to adjust their PSE and obtain PSE credentials. We calculate the resulting extent to which institution specific measures of persistence, PSE leaving, and graduation rates misstate the rates experienced by students. Compared to American students, university and community college starters in Canada have higher persistence and graduation rates and lower transfer rates across institutions. For community college starters, much of the difference is due to the relative lack of well defined pathways from community colleges to universities in Canada. We find that students with more family resources are better able to transfer across programs or institutions in order to obtain a PSE credential.

This paper provides rigorous evidence (for 12,130 participants in a series of naturally occurring randomized lotteries) that a large-scale high school reform initiative (New York City's creation of 100+ small high schools of choice between 2002 and 2008) can markedly and consistently increase high school graduation rates (by 9.5 percentage points overall and for many different student subgroups) for a large population of educationally and economically disadvantaged students of color without increasing annual school operating costs. These findings are directly relevant to current debates by policymakers and practitioners about how to improve the educational prospects of disadvantaged students in the United States. © 2014 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

The authors examined the short- and long-term effects of high school exit exams (HSEEs) on graduation rates and achievement using an interrupted time series approach. There is a positive overall effect of HSEE introduction for graduation rate trends, which is heterogeneous over time. HSEEs have a negative impact on graduation rates in the year of introduction and briefly after, which is short lived and becomes positive (but not statistically significant) over the long term. There is also a preintervention negative effect, suggesting that high schools prepare for the HSEE before introduction. There are no effects for achievement, possibly due to the lack of meaningful cross-state achievement data. The findings are robust to the inclusion of states that do not have HSEEs as a control group and also robust to controlling for No Child Left Behind introduction.

Upper secondary education in Switzerland is divided into a general and a vocational path. Approximately two thirds of adolescents attend the vocational path. The initial vocational education and training (IVET) can be combined with a federal vocational baccalaureate (FVB), which enables graduates to enter universities of applied sciences. The proportion of FVB holders varies considerably between Swiss regions. We study how admission regulations affect regional entry and graduation rates and how they interact with individual characteristics. We use longitudinal register data from the Federal Statistical Office to study individuals’ chances of pursuing and obtaining a vocational baccalaureate in combination with data about cantonal admission criteria to vocational baccalaureate schools. We find that higher admission barriers reduce individuals’ chances of pursuing a vocational baccalaureate, particularly among apprentices with low socio-economic status and those who pursue an FVB after their VET diploma. Against our expectations, high admission barriers are associated not only with lower entry rates but also with lower graduation rates.