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"Grundeigentum"
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Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates
We show that housing markets provide information about the appropriate discount rates for valuing investments in climate change abatement. Real estate is exposed to both consumption and climate risk and its term structure of discount rates is downward sloping, reaching 2.6% for payoffs beyond 100 years. We use a tractable asset pricing model that incorporates features of climate change to show that the term structure of discount rates for climate-hedging investments is thus upward sloping but bounded above by the risk-free rate. At horizons at which risk-free rates are unavailable, the estimated housing discount rates provide an upper bound.
Journal Article
REGIONAL HETEROGENEITY AND THE REFINANCING CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY
We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts, but these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth. We build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with mortgage borrowers and lenders and use it to explore the monetary policy implications arising from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.
Journal Article
Property Rights, Land Misallocation, and Agricultural Efficiency in China
This article examines the impact of a property rights reform in rural China that allowed farmers to lease out their land. We find the reform led to increases in land rental activity in rural households. Our results indicate that the formalization of leasing rights resulted in a redistribution of land toward more-productive farmers. Consequently, output and aggregate productivity increased by 8% and 10%, respectively. We also find that the reform increased the responsiveness of land allocation across crops to changes in crop prices.
Journal Article
Mortgage Debt Overhang: Reduced Investment by Homeowners at Risk of Default
Homeowners at risk of default face a debt overhang that reduces their incentive to invest in their property: in expectation, some value created by investments in the property will go to the lender. This agency conflict affects housing investments. Homeowners at risk of default cut back substantially on home improvements and mortgage principal payments, even when they appear financially unconstrained. Meanwhile, they do not reduce spending on assets that they may retain in default, including home appliances, furniture, and vehicles. These findings highlight an important financial friction that has stifled housing investment since the Great Recession.
Journal Article
The Rate of Return on Real Estate
Real estate—housing in particular—is a less profitable investment in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for the institutional real estate portfolios of four large Oxbridge colleges over the period 1901–1983. Gross income yields initially fluctuate around 5%, but then trend downward (upward) for agricultural and residential (commercial) real estate. Long-term real income growth rates are close to zero for all property types. Our findings imply annualized real total returns, net of costs, ranging from approximately 2.3% for residential to 4.5% for agricultural real estate.
Journal Article
Do Shocks to Personal Wealth Affect Risk-taking in Delegated Portfolios?
Using exogenous wealth shocks stemming from the collapse of the housing market, we show that managers who experience substantial losses in their home values subsequently reduce risk in their delegated funds. The decline in fund risk comes through reductions in idiosyncratic risk and tracking error, suggesting that the behavior is likely driven by career concerns. Our paper provides evidence that idiosyncratic personal preferences affect mutual fund managers’ professional decisions and offers a methodology for testing for manager effects that is not subject to the selection critique of Fee, Hadlock, and Pierce (2013).
Journal Article
The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth
The \"wealthy hand-to-mouth\" are households that hold little or no liquid wealth, whether in cash or in checking or savings accounts, despite owning sizable amounts of illiquid assets (assets that carry a transaction cost, such as housing or retirement accounts). We use survey data on household portfolios for the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain to document the share of such households across countries, their demographic characteristics, the composition of their balance sheets, and the persistence of hand-to-mouth status over their life cycle. The portfolio configuration of the wealthy hand-to-mouth suggests that these households may have a high marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income changes, a prediction for which we find empirical support in PSID data. We explain the implications of this group of consumers for macroeconomic modeling and fiscal policy analysis.
Journal Article
Limited Stock Market Participation Among Renters and Homeowners
The stock market participation rate among homeowners is twice as high as among renters. This paper builds a life-cycle portfolio choice model with endogenous housing tenure choice. A stylized form of preference heterogeneity generates a substantial difference in participation rates. A majority of households have a large savings motive and choose to be homeowners and participate. A minority of households have a small savings motive and find it less worthwhile to participate. Fewer of these households become homeowners. Difference-in-difference regressions on panel data do not find evidence of a crowdingout effect of homeownership on participation, supporting the message that preference heterogeneity matters.
Journal Article
Level and Distribution of Global Household Wealth
The level of average household wealth in all countries is estimated via the determinants of assets and debts for 39 countries which have balance sheet or survey data. The distribution of wealth in all countries is inferred from information on the pattern of wealth ownership for 20 countries (covering 59% of world population). Combining the level and distribution figures suggests that median global wealth was PPP$8,635 in the year 2000, and that PPP$518,361 was needed to belong to the top percentile. The top decile owned 71% of world wealth and the global Gini value was 0.802.
Journal Article