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Solving complex problems is a challenge faced by many governments. Academic and practical discussions on how to solve said problems look at policy integration as a solution to the negative implications that fragmented government actions have on addressing public problems or providing public services. Notwithstanding important recent contributions, we still lack a precise understanding of what policy integration is, an explanation of how it differs from other “solutions” to complex problems, such as coordination or policy coherence, and a practical operationalization. In this paper, we argue that coordination, coherence, and integration are related but substantively different concepts. We offer a new way of understanding and observing policy integration in a manner that is theoretically distinguishable from policy coordination and coherence and empirically observable. We argue that policy integration is the process of making strategic and administrative decisions aimed at solving a complex problem. Solving this complex problem is a goal that encompasses—but exceeds—the programs’ and agencies’ individual goals. In practical terms, it means that, at every moment of the policy process, there is a decision-making body making decisions based on a new logic—that of addressing a complex problem.

Deciphering invasion routes from molecular data is crucial to understanding biological invasions, including identifying bottlenecks in population size and admixture among distinct populations. Here, we unravel the invasion routes of the invasive pest Drosophila suzukii using a multi-locus microsatellite dataset (25 loci on 23 worldwide sampling locations). To do this, we use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which has improved the reconstruction of invasion routes, but can be computationally expensive. We use our study to illustrate the use of a new, more efficient, ABC method, ABC random forest (ABC-RF) and compare it to a standard ABC method (ABC-LDA). We find that Japan emerges as the most probable source of the earliest recorded invasion into Hawaii. Southeast China and Hawaii together are the most probable sources of populations in western North America, which then in turn served as sources for those in eastern North America. European populations are genetically more homogeneous than North American populations, and their most probable source is northeast China, with evidence of limited gene flow from the eastern US as well. All introduced populations passed through bottlenecks, and analyses reveal five distinct admixture events. These findings can inform hypotheses concerning how this species evolved between different and independent source and invasive populations. Methodological comparisons indicate that ABC-RF and ABC-LDA show concordant results if ABC-LDA is based on a large number of simulated datasets but that ABC-RF out-performs ABC-LDA when using a comparable and more manageable number of simulated datasets, especially when analyzing complex introduction scenarios.

In recent decades, the policy sciences have struggled to come to terms with the significance of inaction in public policy. Inaction refers to instances when policymakers ‘do nothing’ about societal issues. This article aims to put the study of inaction on a new footing. It presents a five-part typology of forms of inaction before focusing on detail on core drivers of inaction found at four policy-making loci: individuals (coping behaviour), public organisations (information pathologies), governments (agenda control and protection) and networks (non-coordination and lack of feasibility). Acknowledging the conceptual and methodological challenges of researching inaction, it concludes by identifying strategies for putting ‘doing nothing’ (back) on the research agenda of the policy sciences.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) of H10 subtype are able to circulate in domestic and wild bird populations but can also spill over and adapt to mammals, posing a continuous risk to biodiversity conservation, veterinary health, and public health. In the present study, we assessed the zoonotic potential of nine H10 AIVs isolated from waterbirds during surveillance and research studies carried out in Italy between 1994 and 2007. Overall, six H10NX strains from wild mallards (n. 1 H10N2, n. 5 H10N7), one H10N7 strain from domestic mallards, and two H10N8 strains from Eurasian coots were sequenced by next-generation sequencing (NGS). HA phylogenetic analysis indicated a marked divergence between viruses from these two sympatric waterbird species and showed a close relationship between three H10N7 strains from wild mallard and one H10N7 isolate of domestic origin. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of several molecular markers, associated with increased zoonotic potential, including the PB2-A588V mutation found in the Eurasian coot H10N8 viruses and previously linked to mammalian adaptation in H10 strains. Molecular analysis also showed that all H10 viruses were susceptible to the major approved classes of influenza antivirals (inhibitors of neuraminidase, matrix-2, and polymerase acid protein). Moreover, phenotypic assay confirmed their susceptibility to oseltamivir and zanamivir drugs. From an ecological perspective, we found that different H10 gene pools seem to be harboured in different waterbird species sharing the same environment; additionally, a bidirectional transmission of H10 mallard isolates occurred between natural and anthropic ecosystems. Overall, our findings account for the need of continuous monitoring of AIVs belonging to the H10 subtype.

The widespread use of wearable devices has enabled continuous monitoring of biometric data, including heart rate variability (HRV) and resting heart rate (RHR). However, the validity of these measurements, particularly from consumer devices like Apple Watch, remains underexplored. This study aimed to validate HRV measurements obtained from Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 against the Polar H10 chest strap paired with the Kubios HRV software, which together served as the reference standard. A prospective cohort of 39 healthy adults provided 316 HRV measurements over a 14-day period. Generalized Estimating Equations were used to assess the difference in HRV between devices, accounting for repeated measures. Apple Watch tended to underestimate HRV by an average of 8.31 ms compared to the Polar H10 (p = 0.025), with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 28.88% and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 20.46 ms. The study found no significant impact of RHR discrepancies on HRV differences (p = 0.156), with RHR showing a mean difference of −0.08 bpm, an MAPE of 5.91%, and an MAE of 3.73 bpm. Equivalence testing indicated that the HRV measurements from Apple Watch did not fall within the pre-specified equivalence margin of ±10 ms. Despite accurate RHR measurements, these findings underscore the need for improved HRV algorithms in consumer wearables and caution in interpreting HRV data for clinical or performance monitoring.

We examine the views toward libertarian-paternalistic (soft) governmental interventions in a series of online experiments conducted in three countries. We use both standard and new methods to elicit attitudes toward soft interventions in various hypothetical scenarios. The majority of the participants accept these types of interventions by the government. However, a substantial proportion opposes them and would prefer that the government simply provide information to help the public make the right choice rather than use a more effective choice architecture intervention. Some even refuse to make the choice that the government promotes, although they would have done so in the absence of the intervention. The opposition to soft interventions appears to be driven by concerns about manipulation and the fear of a slippery slope to nonconsensual interventions. Opposition to soft interventions is reduced when they are implemented by employers rather than the government.

The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs, and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the generalized methods of moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socioeconomic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.

Heart rate variability (HRV), particularly the root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), is widely used as a non-invasive indicator of autonomic nervous system activity and physiological recovery. This study examined whether daily short-term HRV, measured under standardised morning conditions, was associated with self-reported wellness in a non-clinical adult population. Over a 14-day period, 41 participants completed daily five-minute HRV recordings using a Polar H10 chest sensor and the Kubios mobile app, followed by ratings of sleep quality, fatigue, stress, and physical recovery. Bayesian ordinal mixed-effects models revealed that higher RMSSD values were associated with better self-reported sleep (β = 0.510, 95% HDI: 0.239 to 0.779), lower fatigue (β = 0.281, 95% HDI: 0.020 to 0.562), and reduced stress (β = 0.353, 95% HDI: 0.059 to 0.606), even after adjusting for covariates. No association was found between RMSSD and perceived muscle soreness. These findings support the interpretability of RMSSD as a physiological marker of daily recovery and stress in real-world settings. While the effect sizes were modest and individual variability remained substantial, results suggest that consistent HRV monitoring may offer meaningful insight into subjective wellness—particularly when contextualised and tracked over time.

Upgrade work towards increasing the beam intensity of the neutrino beamline at the Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex (J-PARC) is underway. Monitoring tertiary muon beams is essential for stable operation of the beamline. Accordingly, we plan to replace the present muon monitor sensors with electron multiplier tubes (EMTs). We investigated the radiation tolerance and linearity response of EMTs using a 90 MeV electron beam. EMTs were irradiated with electrons up to 470 nC. EMTs show higher radiation tolerance than the Si sensors which are presently used as one of the muon monitor detectors for the Tokai-to-Kamioka (T2K) long-baseline neutrino experiment at J-PARC. The integrated charge yield decrease is found to be less than 8% after a beam irradiation equivalent to 132 days of operation at the future J-PARC beam power of 1.3 MW. The EMTs show linearity better than $\\pm$5% up to the future beam intensity. The observed yield decrease is likely due to dynode deterioration, based on detailed investigation. The studies described here confirm that EMTs can be used as a high-intensity muon beam monitor. Owing to the reported results, we are proceeding with the installation in the J-PARC neutrino beamline.

Heart rate variability (HRV), using electrocardiography (ECG), has gained popularity as a biomarker of the stress response. Alternatives to HRV monitoring, like photoplethysmography (PPG), are being explored as cheaper and unobtrusive non-invasive technologies. We report a new wireless PPG sensor that was tested in detecting changes in HRV, elicited by a mentally stressful task, and to determine if its signal can be used as a surrogate of ECG for HRV analysis. Data were collected simultaneously from volunteers using a PPG and ECG sensor, during a resting and a mentally stressful task. HRV metrics were extracted from these signals and compared to determine the agreement between them and to determine if any changes occurred in the metrics due to the stressful task. For both tasks, a moderate/good agreement was found in the mean interbeat intervals, SDNN, LF, and SD2, and a poor agreement for the pNN50, RMSSD|SD1, and HF metrics. The majority of the tested HRV metrics obtained from the PPG signal showed a significant decrease caused by the mental task. The disagreement found between specific HRV features imposes caution when comparing metrics from different technologies. Nevertheless, the tested sensor was successful at detecting changes in the HRV caused by a mental stressor.