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Motivated by empirical evidence I uncover on the dynamics of French firms' exports, I offer a novel theory of trade frictions. Firms export only into markets where they have a contact. They search directly for new trading partners, but also use their existing network of contacts to search remotely for new partners. I characterize the dynamic formation of an international network of exporters in this model. Structurally, I estimate this model on French data and confirm its predictions regarding the distribution of the number of foreign markets accessed by exporters and the geographic distribution of exports.

A growing share of modern trade policy instruments is shaped by non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Based on a structural gravity equation and the recently updated Global Trade Alert database, we empirically investigate the effect of NTBs on imports. Our analysis reveals that the implementation of NTBs reduces imports of affected products by up to 12%. Their trade dampening effect is thus comparable to that of trade defence instruments such as anti-dumping duties. It is smaller for exporters that have a free trade agreement with the importing country. Different types of NTBs affect trade to a different extent. Finally, we investigate the effect of behind-the-border measures, showing that they significantly lower the importer’s market access.

Following the 2016 Leave vote in the referendum on UK membership in the EU and the election of Donald Trump, trade agreements have entered a period of great instability. To predict the impact of possible disruptions to existing arrangements requires counterfactual analysis that takes into account the complex set of factors influencing the production and marketing strategies of multinational corporations. We estimate a model of multinational decision-making in the car industry. This model predicts the production reallocation and consumer surplus consequences of changes in tariffs and non-tariff barriers induced by US-led protectionism, Brexit, transpacific, and transatlantic integration agreements.

We extend the trade restrictiveness index approach to the case of market imperfections and domestic regulations addressing them. We focus on standard-like non-tariff measures (NTMs) affecting cost of production and potentially enhancing demand by reducing negative externalities. We apply the framework to the database of Kee et al. (2009) and derive ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) for technical measures. About 39% of the product lines affected by NTMs exhibit negative AVEs, indicating a net trade-facilitating effect of these measures. Accounting for these effects significantly reduces previous measures of countries' trade policy restrictiveness obtained while constraining these NTMs to be trade-reducing. Nous étendons l'approche de l'index de restriction des échanges aux situations d'imperfections des marchés et des réglementations correctives. Nous nous concentrons sur les mesures non-tarifaires (MNT) de type standard de qualité, qui affectent le coût de production et peuvent augmenter la demande en réduisant des externalités négatives. Nous appliquons l'approche à la banque de données de Kee et al. (2009) et dérivons des équivalents ad valorem (EAV) pour les mesures techniques inclues dans leur données. Environ 39 % des lignes de produits affectées par des MNT, ont des EAV négatifs, montrant l'effet net d'expansion des échanges induit par ces mesures. Prendre en compte ces effets d'expansion réduit considérablement les estimations précédentes des effets restrictifs des politiques de commerce obtenues en maintenant l'hypothèse que toutes les MNT réduisent les échanges.

The recent U.S.–China trade conflicts cast new light on the role of trade policies in global value chains (GVCs). Contrary to the expectation that trade restrictions lead to the shrinking or disruption of GVCs, our article posits that the unintended consequences of trade policies (both restrictions and trade agreements) are amplified by the prevalence and organizational complexity of GVCs. We anchor our argument in the historical evolution of three classic GVCs – apparel, automobiles, and electronics – from the 1970s to the present. Our framework highlights the dynamic interaction between GVC-oriented trade policies and firm strategies, which often has counterintuitive implications in terms of upgrading outcomes for the countries and companies involved in these GVCs. While trade policies often provide momentum for an adaptive reconfiguration of GVCs, firms’ strategic actions are crucial in modifying the geographic and organizational features of GVCs in ways that support their longevity. Firm strategies can mediate the effect of trade policies on GVC configurations in two ways: (1) firms can accommodate trade restrictions and trade agreements by altering supply and demand locations and by switching supply-chain partners; and (2) firms pursue diverse strategies to upgrade their value chain activities, leveraging the shifting geographies associated with new trade rules.

We develop a simple model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that is consistent with a number of stylized features of the data. In particular, the model predicts positive as well as zero trade flows across pairs of countries, and it allows the number of exporting firms to vary across destination countries. As a result, the impact of trade frictions on trade flows can be decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins, where the former refers to the trade volume per exporter and the latter refers to the number of exporters. This model yields a generalized gravity equation that accounts for the self-selection of firms into export markets and their impact on trade volumes. We then develop a two-stage estimation procedure that uses an equation for selection into trade partners in the first stage and a trade flow equation in the second. We implement this procedure parametrically, semiparametrically, and nonparametrically, showing that in all three cases the estimated effects of trade frictions are similar. Importantly, our method provides estimates of the intensive and extensive margins of trade. We show that traditional estimates are biased and that most of the bias is due not to selection but rather due to the omission of the extensive margin. Moreover, the effect of the number of exporting firms varies across country pairs according to their characteristics. This variation is large and particularly so for trade between developed and less developed countries and between pairs of less developed countries.

Market size matters for innovation and hence for productivity. Improved access to foreign markets will thus encourage firms to simultaneously export and invest in raising productivity. We examine this insight using the responses of Canadian plants to the elimination of U.S. tariffs. Unique “plant-specific” tariff cuts serve as an instrument for changes in exporting. We find that Canadian plants that were induced by the tariff cuts to start exporting or to export more (a) increased their labor productivity, (b) engaged in more product innovation, and (c) had higher adoption rates for advanced manufacturing technologies. Further, these responses were heterogeneous.

Globalisation is increasingly characterised by intertwined geographical and local production processes through global value chains (GVCs). In the presence of GVCs, import tariffs not only affect the direct trading partners, but also result in indirect impacts through inter-country and inter-industry linkages. This is also the case for non-tariff measures (NTMs), which have gained in significance in recent decades and are an important part of comprehensive trade negotiations and agreements. This paper analyses the effects of such trade policy instruments along GVCs. The authors estimate bilateral ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of two types of NTMs (technical barriers to trade, and sanitary and phytosanitary measures) and calculate cumulative bilateral trade restrictiveness indices based on these AVEs and tariffs by taking GVC linkages into account. This produces a ‘trade restrictiveness index’. Using this index, the authors investigate the impacts of these trade policy measures by applying a structural gravity model on value added and gross exports. The results indicate that tariffs have a stronger impact on exports than do NTMs, though tariffs have been reduced significantly in the past decades. As for the impact of NTMs, the results confirm the existing literature that suggests there can be both trade-enhancing and trade-hampering effects.

By considering a model with identical firms, Krugman (1980) predicts that a higher elasticity of substitution between goods magnifies the impact of trade barriers on trade flows. In this paper, I introduce firm heterogeneity in a simple model of international trade. I prove that the extensive margin and the intensive margin are affected by the elasticity of substitution in exact opposite directions. When the distribution of productivity across firms is Pareto, the predictions of the Krugman model with representative firms are overturned: the impact of trade barriers on trade flows is dampened by the elasticity of substitution, and not magnified. (JEL F12, F13)