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The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980–2015, and health spend data from 1995–2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9·21 trillion in 2014 to $24·24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20·47–29·72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5·3% (UI 4·1–6·8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4·2% (3·8–4·9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2·1% (UI 1·8–2·4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1·8% (1·0–2·8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133–181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157–258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157–258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

This comprehensive rapid review meticulously evaluates the transformative influence of Vision 2030 on the healthcare sector in Saudi Arabia. Vision 2030, with its broad scope, targets an extensive overhaul of healthcare through infrastructure enhancement, digital health adoption, workforce empowerment, innovative public health initiatives, and advancements in quality of care and patient safety. By employing a rigorous analytical approach, this review synthesizes a broad spectrum of data highlighting Saudi Arabia’s significant progress toward establishing an accessible, efficient, and superior healthcare system. It delves into the kingdom’s alignment with global healthcare trends and its distinctive contributions, notably in digital health and public health, illustrating a proactive stance on future healthcare challenges. The analysis rigorously explores Vision 2030’s ambitious objectives and the concrete outcomes achieved, providing deep insights into the evolving healthcare landscape in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, it assesses the global ramifications of these reformative efforts, emphasizing the pivotal themes of innovation, equity, and excellence as the foundation for future healthcare advancements. This review not only sheds light on Vision 2030’s extensive impact on Saudi healthcare but also positions the kingdom as an exemplar of healthcare innovation and reform on the global stage, offering valuable lessons for healthcare policy and practice around the world.

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available. We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated. Since the development and implementation of the SDGs in 2015, global health spending has increased, reaching $7·9 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 7·8–8·0) in 2017 and is expected to increase to $11·0 trillion (10·7–11·2) by 2030. In 2017, in low-income and middle-income countries spending on HIV/AIDS was $20·2 billion (17·0–25·0) and on tuberculosis it was $10·9 billion (10·3–11·8), and in malaria-endemic countries spending on malaria was $5·1 billion (4·9–5·4). Development assistance for health was $40·6 billion in 2019 and HIV/AIDS has been the health focus area to receive the highest contribution since 2004. In 2019, $374 million of DAH was provided for pandemic preparedness, less than 1% of DAH. Although spending has increased across HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria since 2015, spending has not increased in all countries, and outcomes in terms of prevalence, incidence, and per-capita spending have been mixed. The proportion of health spending from pooled sources is expected to increase from 81·6% (81·6–81·7) in 2015 to 83·1% (82·8–83·3) in 2030. Health spending on SDG3 priority areas has increased, but not in all countries, and progress towards meeting the SDG3 targets has been mixed and has varied by country and by target. The evidence on the scale-up of spending and improvements in health outcomes suggest a nuanced relationship, such that increases in spending do not always results in improvements in outcomes. Although countries will probably need more resources to achieve SDG3, other constraints in the broader health system such as inefficient allocation of resources across interventions and populations, weak governance systems, human resource shortages, and drug shortages, will also need to be addressed. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

[...]intragovernmental coordination was improved because health authorities drew on their experiences of severe acute respiratory syndrome during 2002–03 in Hong Kong and Singapore, H5N1 avian influenza in 1997 in Hong Kong, and the 2009 influenza H1N1 pandemic in all three locations. [...]all locations adapted financing measures so that all direct costs for treating patients are borne by the governments. [...]the trust of patients, health-care professionals, and society as a whole in government is of paramount importance for meeting health crises.

Primary health care offers a cost-effective route to achieving universal health coverage (UHC). However, primary health-care systems are weak in many low- and middle-income countries and often fail to provide comprehensive, people-centred, integrated care. We analysed the primary health-care systems in 20 low- and middle-income countries using a semi-grounded approach. Options for strengthening primary health-care systems were identified by thematic content analysis. We found that: (i) despite the growing burden of noncommunicable disease, many low- and middle-income countries lacked funds for preventive services; (ii) community health workers were often under-resourced, poorly supported and lacked training; (iii) out-of-pocket expenditure exceeded 40% of total health expenditure in half the countries studied, which affected equity; and (iv) health insurance schemes were hampered by the fragmentation of public and private systems, underfunding, corruption and poor engagement of informal workers. In 14 countries, the private sector was largely unregulated. Moreover, community engagement in primary health care was weak in countries where services were largely privatized. In some countries, decentralization led to the fragmentation of primary health care. Performance improved when financial incentives were linked to regulation and quality improvement, and community involvement was strong. Policy-making should be supported by adequate resources for primary health-care implementation and government spending on primary health care should be increased by at least 1% of gross domestic product. Devising equity-enhancing financing schemes and improving the accountability of primary health-care management is also needed. Support from primary health-care systems is critical for progress towards UHC in the decade to 2030.

AbstractObjectiveTo analyze the premarket purchase commitments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) vaccines from leading manufacturers to recipient countries.DesignCross sectional analysis.Data sourcesWorld Health Organization’s draft landscape of covid-19 candidate vaccines, along with company disclosures to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, company and foundation press releases, government press releases, and media reports.Eligibility criteria and data analysisPremarket purchase commitments for covid-19 vaccines, publicly announced by 15 November 2020.Main outcome measuresPremarket purchase commitments for covid-19 vaccine candidates and price per course, vaccine platform, and stage of research and development, as well as procurement agent and recipient country.ResultsAs of 15 November 2020, several countries have made premarket purchase commitments totaling 7.48 billion doses, or 3.76 billion courses, of covid-19 vaccines from 13 vaccine manufacturers. Just over half (51%) of these doses will go to high income countries, which represent 14% of the world’s population. The US has reserved 800 million doses but accounts for a fifth of all covid-19 cases globally (11.02 million cases), whereas Japan, Australia, and Canada have collectively reserved more than one billion doses but do not account for even 1% of current global covid-19 cases globally (0.45 million cases). If these vaccine candidates were all successfully scaled, the total projected manufacturing capacity would be 5.96 billion courses by the end of 2021. Up to 40% (or 2.34 billion) of vaccine courses from these manufacturers might potentially remain for low and middle income countries–less if high income countries exercise scale-up options and more if high income countries share what they have procured. Prices for these vaccines vary by more than 10-fold, from $6.00 (£4.50; €4.90) per course to as high as $74 per course. With broad country participation apart from the US and Russia, the COVAX Facility—the vaccines pillar of the World Health Organization’s Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator—has secured at least 500 million doses, or 250 million courses, and financing for half of the targeted two billion doses by the end of 2021 in efforts to support globally coordinated access to covid-19 vaccines.ConclusionsThis study provides an overview of how high income countries have secured future supplies of covid-19 vaccines but that access for the rest of the world is uncertain. Governments and manufacturers might provide much needed assurances for equitable allocation of covid-19 vaccines through greater transparency and accountability over these arrangements.

Primary Health Care (PHC) is considered a privileged space for the inclusion of students in the Unified Health System (UHS), which is most desirable the pedagogical scenario for the health course graduate education profile. However, its new financing model induces a neoselectivity that may mischaracterize UHS principles in primary care. This study is a qualitative meta-synthesis to understand the challenges of teaching practice scenarios in PHC, identified in the research, in order to discuss them in light of the limits imposed by the neoselectivity, induced by the Previne Brasil Program (Prevent Brazil Program). A search was conducted on the Virtual Health Library (VHL) portal. The search strategy was designed using the following keywords: ‘practice scenarios in higher education’ (object), ‘challenges’ (qualifier) and ‘PHC’ (amplitude/limit). The selection of publications was carried out using the PRISMA protocol by two independent reviewers, and data analysis was performed in the thematic modality. The quality analysis of the articles was based on the CASP protocol and the internal validation of the excerpts was done by a third evaluator. From the 17 articles included in the review, it was possible to extract 5 analytical dimensions of the scenarios' challenges, which are related to: ‘care’, ‘teaching’, ‘management’, ‘health professionals' attitude’, ‘community attitude’. All dimensions presented several sub-themes, except for 'community attitude'. Given the existing challenges, the neoselectivity induced in PHC tends to intensify most of the problems. It is assumed that the impacts on PHC settings may, in the future, place it as a non-viable practice scenario.

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals. We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations. The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) is critical for ensuring equity, improving health, and protecting households from financial catastrophe. The COVID-19 pandemic derailed the progress made across primary health targets. This article aims to review the policy challenges to achieve UHC in a post-pandemic world. A narrative review of 118 peer reviewed and grey literature was conducted. A total of 77 published articles were identified using an electronic search in PubMed and Scopus and a bibliographic search of relevant literature. Another 41 Reports, websites, blogs, news articles, and data were manually sourced from international agencies (WHO, World Bank, IMF, FAO, etc.), government agencies, and non-government organizations. The challenges were identified and discussed under five broad findings: i) weak public health care systems ii) challenges to building resilient health systems, iii) health care financing and financial risk protection, iv) epidemiological and demographic challenges, and v) governance and leadership. LMICs in Africa and South Asia face significant challenges to achieving UHC by 2030. As countries recover from the pandemic's aftermath, significant investments and innovations are needed to ensure progress toward UHC. Efficient resource mobilization through internal accruals, international cooperation, and resource sharing is needed.