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Heatwaves represent a significant natural hazard in Australia, arguably more hazardous to human life than bushfires, tropical cyclones and floods. In the 2008/2009 summer, for example, many more lives were lost to heatwaves than to that summer’s bushfires which were among the worst in the history of the Australian nation. For many years, these other forms of natural disaster have received much greater public attention than heatwaves, although there are some signs of change. We propose a new index, called the excess heat factor (EHF) for use in Australian heatwave monitoring and forecasting. The index is based on a three-day-averaged daily mean temperature (DMT), and is intended to capture heatwave intensity as it applies to human health outcomes, although its usefulness is likely to be much broader and with potential for international applicability. The index is described and placed in a climatological context in order to derive heatwave severity. Heatwave severity, as characterised by the climatological distribution of heatwave intensity, has been used to normalise the climatological variation in heatwave intensity range across Australia. This methodology was used to introduce a pilot national heatwave forecasting service for Australia during the 2013/2014 summer. Some results on the performance of the service are presented.

The Russian heatwave in 2010 killed tens of thousands of people, and was by far the worst event in Europe since at least 1950, according to recent studies and a novel universal heatwave index capturing both the duration and magnitude of heatwaves. Here, by taking an improved version of this index, namely the heat wave magnitude index daily, we rank the top ten European heatwaves that occurred in the period 1950–2014, and show the spatial distribution of the magnitude of the most recent heatwave in summer 2015. We demonstrate that all these events had a strong impact reported in historical newspapers. We further reveal that the 1972 heatwave in Finland had a comparable spatial extent and magnitude as the European heatwave of 2003, considered the second strongest heatwave of the observational era. In the next two decades(2021–2040), regional climate projections suggest that Europe experiences an enhanced probability for heatwaves comparable to or greater than the magnitude, extent and duration of the Russian heatwave in 2010. We demonstrate that the probability of experiencing a major European heatwave in the coming decades is higher in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 even though global mean temperature projections do not differ substantially. This calls for a proactive vulnerability assessment in Europe in support of formulating heatwave adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse impacts of heatwaves.

The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week EHF heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global EHF severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, EHF intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The EHF severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.

The 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) caused widespread crop damage, water shortages, and wildfires across Europe. Our study analyzed this event’s severity and return period (RP) and compared it with past mega CDHWs in Europe. The hardest‐hit areas were Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy, where temperatures exceeded 2.5°C above normal, and severe droughts persisted from May to August. Using a Bayesian approach, we estimated the RP for the 2022 CDHW event, which was unprecedented in Northern Italy, Iberian Peninsula, and western parts of France, with RPs of 354, 420, and 280 years, respectively. The reduced soil moisture due to precipitation deficits and high temperatures contributed to the persistence and severity of drought, creating a positive feedback loop where dry soils led to even drier conditions. In light of our findings, it is evident that global warming poses increased risks of severe CDHW events, which are likely to increase. Plain Language Summary We studied how severe was 2022 Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) event over Europe, identified hotspots, and compared them with past mega‐events. The most impacted regions include the Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy, experiencing higher‐than‐normal temperatures and severe drought conditions from May to August. Our study estimated the return period of this event, which indicates how often an event of this magnitude is expected to occur, and found that it was unprecedented in large parts of Northern Italy, Iberian Peninsula, and France. The hot and dry weather that continued from the Spring season caused the soil to lose moisture, worsening the drought. This, in turn, made the soil even drier, intensifying the drought and heatwaves further, aggravating the risks of wildfires across France and the Mediterranean region. Key Points Spatiotemporal patterns of 2022 compound drought and heatwave events were compared with past 2003, 2015, and 2018 extreme events Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy experienced higher‐than‐normal temperatures and severe drought conditions from May to August 2022 compound event was unprecedented in most part of Europe, such as Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and western parts of France

In weather and climate applications, a wide range of commonly employed heatwave intensity indices relies either on cumulative or averaged values of temperature‐based variables. In this study, by comparing four different heatwave intensity indices applied to reanalysis data we show that metrics based on cumulative or averaged values lead to important differences in the detection of the most intense events of the period 1950–2021. This suggests that particular attention is needed when using the two families of metrics for assessing heatwave intensity. Indices based on cumulative values should be preferred over the ones relying on temporal averages, better allowing for the comparison of events of different length. Under these considerations, one of the considered cumulative indices is used for characterizing heatwaves of the period 1950–2021, showing that heatwaves that were unlikely before 1986 have become almost 10 times more frequent and up to three times more intense during recent times. Plain Language Summary Heatwave intensity represents a measure of how extreme an event is, which is directly connected to the severity of its impact on the population and natural ecosystems. In weather and climate applications, a wide range of heatwave intensity indices exists that are used. In this work we show that two families of commonly employed indices for heatwave intensity, either relying on cumulative or averaged values of temperature‐based variables, lead to important differences in the detection of the most intense events occurring globally over the period 1950–2021. This suggests that extreme care is needed in the use of the two families of metrics for the assessment of heatwave intensity. Indices based on cumulative values represent a more appropriate choice than the ones relying on temporal averages, since they better allow for the comparison of events of different length. Additionally, using one of the considered cumulative metrics for heatwave intensity, we investigate the trends of very extreme events over the period 1950–2021. The results show that for all the considered regions, heatwaves that were rarely recorded during 1950–1985 have become up to 10 times more likely and up to three times more intense over 1986–2021. Key Points The most intense heatwaves of 1950–2021 considerably change if considering intensity indices either based on cumulative or averaged values An appropriate measure of heatwave intensity should be based on cumulative indices allowing to better compare events of different length The most intense heatwaves of 1950–1985 have become up to 10 times more frequent and up to three times more intense during 1986–2021

Considerable attention has been directed at understanding the consequences and impacts of long-term anthropogenic climate change. Discrete, climatically extreme events such as cyclones, floods, and heatwaves can also significantly affect regional environments and species, including humans. Climate change is expected to intensify these events and thus exacerbate their effects. Climatic extremes also occur in the ocean, and recent decades have seen many high-impact marine heatwaves (MHWs)—anomalously warm water events that may last many months and extend over thousands of square kilometers. A range of biological, economic, and political impacts have been associated with the more intense MHWs, and measuring the severity of these phenomena is becoming more important. Progress in understanding and public awareness will be facilitated by consistent description of these events. Here, we propose a detailed categorization scheme for MHWs that builds on a recently published classification, combining elements from schemes that describe atmospheric heatwaves and hurricanes. Category I, II, III, and IV MHWs are defined based on the degree to which temperatures exceed the local climatology and illustrated for 10 MHWs. While there is a long-term increase in the occurrence frequency of all MHW categories, the largest trend is a 24% increase in the area of the ocean where strong (Category II) MHWs occur. Use of this scheme can help explain why biological impacts associated with different MHWs can vary widely and provides a consistent way to compare events. We also propose a simple naming convention based on geography and year that would further enhance scientific and public awareness of these marine events.

The global ocean has warmed substantially over the past century, with far-reaching implications for marine ecosystems1. Concurrent with long-term persistent warming, discrete periods of extreme regional ocean warming (marine heatwaves, MHWs) have increased in frequency2. Here we quantify trends and attributes of MHWs across all ocean basins and examine their biological impacts from species to ecosystems. Multiple regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans are particularly vulnerable to MHW intensification, due to the co-existence of high levels of biodiversity, a prevalence of species found at their warm range edges or concurrent non-climatic human impacts. The physical attributes of prominent MHWs varied considerably, but all had deleterious impacts across a range of biological processes and taxa, including critical foundation species (corals, seagrasses and kelps). MHWs, which will probably intensify with anthropogenic climate change3, are rapidly emerging as forceful agents of disturbance with the capacity to restructure entire ecosystems and disrupt the provision of ecological goods and services in coming decades.Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency, but they vary in their manifestation. All events impact ecosystem structure and functioning, with increased risk of negative impacts linked to greater biodiversity, number of species near their thermal limit and additional human impacts.

Heatwaves (HWs) are one of the “natural” hazards with the greatest impact worldwide in terms of mortality and economic losses, and their effects may be exacerbated in large urban areas. For these reasons, more detailed analyses of urban HW trends represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, HW trends were investigated during the warmest period of the year (May–September) by using a slightly improved version of the EuroHEAT HW definition applied on long meteorological time-series (36-year period, 1980–2015) collected by weather stations located in the capitals of the 28 European Union member countries. Comparisons between two 18-year sub-periods (1980–1997 vs. 1998–2015) were carried out and a city-specific HW hazard index (HWHI), accounting for the main HW characteristics, was proposed. Most of the capitals revealed significant positive trends of the majority of HW hazard characteristics and substantial HWHI increases were observed during the sub-period 1998–2015, especially in the central-eastern and southeastern cities. Conversely, minor HWHI increases were observed in most of the northern capitals and opposite situations were even observed in several northern and especially southwestern cities. The results of this study represent a support for planning urban HW-related mitigation and adaptation strategies with the priority given to the southeastern cities.

Extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been observed to perturb significantly marine ecosystems and fisheries around the world. Here, we propose a detection method for long-lasting and large-scale summer MHWs, using a local, climatological 99th percentile threshold, based on present-climate (1976–2005) daily SST. To assess their future evolution in the Mediterranean Sea we use, for the first time, a dedicated ensemble of fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models from the Med-CORDEX initiative and a multi-scenario approach. The models appear to simulate well MHW properties during historical period, despite biases in mean and extreme SST. In response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing, the events become stronger and more intense under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. By 2100 and under RCP8.5, simulations project at least one long-lasting MHW every year, up to three months longer, about 4 times more intense and 42 times more severe than present-day events. They are expected to occur from June-October and to affect at peak the entire basin. Their evolution is found to occur mainly due to an increase in the mean SST, but increased daily SST variability also plays a noticeable role. Until the mid-21st century, MHW characteristics rise independently of the choice of the emission scenario, the influence of which becomes more evident by the end of the period. Further analysis reveals different climate change responses in certain configurations, more likely linked to their driving global climate model rather than to the individual model biases.

China has experienced varying degrees of increase or decrease in daytime and nighttime heatwaves, but studies have mostly been at the site or grid scale, and it remains unclear how daytime and nighttime heatwave events in China vary regionally when spatial scales are considered. Here, we redefine the different types of heatwave events in China from 1979 to 2018 as combined day and night heatwave events (CDNHWEs) and independent daytime (nighttime) heatwave events. Due to more pronounced spatiotemporal characteristics, CDNHWEs are the dominant heatwave events in China. Further analysis of the dominant heatwave events indicates that their increase in intensity is stronger at night than during the day, i.e. for CDNHWEs, the daytime-dominated events are gradually replaced by nighttime-dominated events. Compared to 1979–2003, there has been an increase in dominant heatwave events mainly in the south during the day and a nationwide increase at night since 2004. For CDNHWEs, daytime and nighttime processes are regulated by different mechanisms. During the daytime, fewer clouds enhance solar shortwave radiation, favouring daytime heatwaves; however, the increase in aerosols in northern China suppresses solar shortwave radiation. At night, the increase in humidity allows for increased longwave radiation, which favours the formation of nighttime heatwaves across the country. These findings further demonstrate the regional variability of heatwave hazards experienced in China and that targeted heatwave-mitigation measures should be developed based on regional characteristics.