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"Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola history"
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Modeling Case Burden and Duration of Sudan Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Uganda, 2022
In 2022, a Sudan Ebola virus outbreak was confirmed in Uganda. Within 1 month of the outbreak's onset, we developed an individual-based modeling platform to estimate the unfolding outbreak's burden of cases and deaths, as well as its duration, using different scenarios. Modeled projections were within the range of observed cases.
Journal Article
Infections and Elections: Did an Ebola Outbreak Influence the 2014 U.S. Federal Elections (and if so, How)?
In the studies reported here, we conducted longitudinal analyses of preelection polling data to test whether an Ebola outbreak predicted voting intentions preceding the 2014 U.S. federal elections. Analyses were conducted on nationwide polls pertaining to 435 House of Representatives elections and on state-specific polls pertaining to 34 Senate elections. Analyses compared voting intentions before and after the initial Ebola outbreak and assessed correlations between Internet search activity for the term \"Ebola\" and voting intentions. Results revealed that (a) the psychological salience of Ebola was associated with increased intention to vote for Republican candidates and (b) this effect occurred primarily in states characterized by norms favoring Republican Party candidates (the effect did not occur in states with norms favoring Democratic Party candidates). Ancillary analyses addressed several interpretational issues. Overall, these results suggest that disease outbreaks may influence voter behavior in two psychologically distinct ways: increased inclination to vote for politically conservative candidates and increased inclination to conform to popular opinion.
Journal Article
Emerging Infectious Diseases — Learning from the Past and Looking to the Future
Remarkable progress has been made in preventing deaths from infectious diseases. Now, attention could shift to focusing more resources on pandemic preparedness, including detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats while they are localized and manageable.
Journal Article
Strengthening post-Ebola health systems : from response to resilience in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
Addresses the challenge of enabling the development of viable, resilient, and fiscally sustainable health system in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Initiated while Ebola was still raging in all of the three most-affected countries in West Africa, the study identifies the requirements for strengthening the health systems in these countries to go beyond just getting the number of Ebola cases to zero. The overall goal of this study is thus twofold: To assess the capacity of the health systems of the three most-affected countries in terms of their ability to deliver quality health services to their populations, perform core public health functions on a routine basis, and to respond to public health emergencies; and To identify the highest impact strategies to help these countries to strengthen their health systems to be more effective and resilient, drilling down into three key aspects of the health system-- that is, fiscal space for universal health coverage (UHC), development and deployment of an effective health workforce, and continuous disease surveillance.-- Source other than the Library of Congress.
Book
The Role of the Polio Program Infrastructure in Response to Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Nigeria 2014
Background. The current West African outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) began in Guinea in December 2013 and rapidly spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone. On 20 July 2014, a sick individual flew into Lagos, Nigeria, from Monrovia, Liberia, setting off an outbreak in Lagos and later in Port Harcourt city. The government of Nigeria, supported by the World Health Organization and other partners, mounted a response to the outbreak relying on the polio program experiences and infrastructure. On 20 October 2014, the country was declared free of EVD. Methods. We examined the organization and operations of the response to the 2014 EVD outbreak in Nigeria and how experiences and support from the country's polio program infrastructure accelerated the outbreak response. Results. The deputy incident manager of the National Polio Emergency Operations Centre was appointed the incident manager of the Ebola Emergency Operations Centre (EEOC), the body that coordinated and directed the response to the EVD outbreak in the country. A total of 892 contacts were followed up, and blood specimens were collected from 61 persons with suspected EVD and tested in designated laboratories. Of these, 19 (31%) were positive for Ebola, and 11 (58%) of the case patients were healthcare workers. The overall case-fatality rate was 40%. EVD sensitization and training were conducted during the outbreak and for 2 months after the outbreak ended. The World Health Organization deployed its surveillance and logistics personnel from non-Ebola-infected states to support response activities in Lagos and Rivers states. Conclusions. The support from the polio program infrastructure, particularly the coordination mechanism adopted (the EEOC), the availability of skilled personnel in the polio program, and lessons learned from managing the polio eradication program greatly contributed to the speedy containment of the 2014 EVD outbreak in Nigeria.
Journal Article
Surviving Ebola: A historical cohort study of Ebola mortality and survival in Sierra Leone 2014-2015
While a number of predictors for Ebola mortality have been identified, less is known about post-viral symptoms. The identification of acute-illness predictors for post-viral symptoms could allow the selection of patients for more active follow up in the future, and those in whom early interventions may be beneficial in the long term. Studying predictors of both mortality and post-viral symptoms within a single cohort of patients could also further our understanding of the pathophysiology of survivor sequelae.
We performed a historical cohort study using data collected as part of routine clinical care from an Ebola Treatment Centre (ETC) in Kerry Town, Sierra Leone, in order to identify predictors of mortality and of post-viral symptoms. Variables included as potential predictors were sex, age, date of admission, first recorded viral load at the ETC and symptoms (recorded upon presentation at the ETC). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors. Of 263 Ebola-confirmed patients admitted between November 2014 and March 2015, 151 (57%) survived to ETC discharge. Viral load was the strongest predictor of mortality (adjusted OR comparing high with low viral load: 84.97, 95% CI 30.87-345.94). We did not find evidence that a high viral load predicted post-viral symptoms (ocular: 1.17, 95% CI 0.35-3.97; musculoskeletal: 1.07, 95% CI 0.28-4.08). Ocular post-viral symptoms were more common in females (2.31, 95% CI 0.98-5.43) and in those who had experienced hiccups during the acute phase (4.73, 95% CI 0.90-24.73).
These findings may add epidemiological support to the hypothesis that post-viral symptoms have an immune-mediated aspect and may not only be a consequence of high viral load and disease severity.
Journal Article