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Wuhan was the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We aimed to determine the seroprevalence and kinetics of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at population level in Wuhan to inform the development of vaccination strategies. In this longitudinal cross-sectional study, we used a multistage, population-stratified, cluster random sampling method to systematically select 100 communities from the 13 districts of Wuhan. Households were systematically selected from each community and all family members were invited to community health-care centres to participate. Eligible individuals were those who had lived in Wuhan for at least 14 days since Dec 1, 2019. All eligible participants who consented to participate completed a standardised electronic questionnaire of demographic and clinical questions and self-reported any symptoms associated with COVID-19 or previous diagnosis of COVID-19. A venous blood sample was taken for immunological testing on April 14–15, 2020. Blood samples were tested for the presence of pan-immunoglobulins, IgM, IgA, and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and neutralising antibodies were assessed. We did two successive follow-ups between June 11 and June 13, and between Oct 9 and Dec 5, 2020, at which blood samples were taken. Of 4600 households randomly selected, 3599 families (78·2%) with 9702 individuals attended the baseline visit. 9542 individuals from 3556 families had sufficient samples for analyses. 532 (5·6%) of 9542 participants were positive for pan-immunoglobulins against SARS-CoV-2, with a baseline adjusted seroprevalence of 6·92% (95% CI 6·41–7·43) in the population. 437 (82·1%) of 532 participants who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins were asymptomatic. 69 (13·0%) of 532 individuals were positive for IgM antibodies, 84 (15·8%) were positive for IgA antibodies, 532 (100%) were positive for IgG antibodies, and 212 (39·8%) were positive for neutralising antibodies at baseline. The proportion of individuals who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins who had neutralising antibodies in April remained stable for the two follow-up visits (162 [44·6%] of 363 in June, 2020, and 187 [41·2%] of 454 in October–December, 2020). On the basis of data from 335 individuals who attended all three follow-up visits and who were positive for pan-immunoglobulins, neutralising antibody levels did not significantly decrease over the study period (median 1/5·6 [IQR 1/2·0 to 1/14·0] at baseline vs 1/5·6 [1/4·0 to 1/11·2] at first follow-up [p=1·0] and 1/6·3 [1/2·0 to 1/12·6] at second follow-up [p=0·29]). However, neutralising antibody titres were lower in asymptomatic individuals than in confirmed cases and symptomatic individuals. Although titres of IgG decreased over time, the proportion of individuals who had IgG antibodies did not decrease substantially (from 30 [100%] of 30 at baseline to 26 [89·7%] of 29 at second follow-up among confirmed cases, 65 [100%] of 65 at baseline to 58 [92·1%] of 63 at second follow-up among symptomatic individuals, and 437 [100%] of 437 at baseline to 329 [90·9%] of 362 at second follow-up among asymptomatic individuals). 6·92% of a cross-sectional sample of the population of Wuhan developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, with 39·8% of this population seroconverting to have neutralising antibodies. Our durability data on humoral responses indicate that mass vaccination is needed to effect herd protection to prevent the resurgence of the epidemic. Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, National Natural Science Foundation, and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology. For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

We investigated what proportion of the population acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and whether the herd immunity threshold has been reached in 10 communities in Qatar. The study included 4,970 participants during June 21-September 9, 2020. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected by using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Seropositivity ranged from 54.9% (95% CI 50.2%-59.4%) to 83.8% (95% CI 79.1%-87.7%) across communities and showed a pooled mean of 66.1% (95% CI 61.5%-70.6%). A range of other epidemiologic measures indicated that active infection is rare, with limited if any sustainable infection transmission for clusters to occur. Only 5 infections were ever severe and 1 was critical in these young communities; infection severity rate of 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%-0.4%). Specific communities in Qatar have or nearly reached herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 infection: 65%-70% of the population has been infected.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies against HIV can be rapidly generated by immunizing cows.

Herd immunity is a key concept for epidemic control. It states that only a proportion of a population needs to be immune (through overcoming natural infection or through vaccination) to an infectious agent for it to stop generating large outbreaks. A key question in the current COVID-19 pandemic is how and when herd immunity can be achieved and at what cost.During the current COVID-19 pandemic, the concept of herd immunity has become a topic of much debate. This Comment examines the factors that determine it, discusses how far we have come and considers what it will take to reach herd immunity safely.

Background Since the abolition of EU milk quotas in 2015, the Irish dairy industry has expanded with a 16.6% increase in calf births since 2011. Calf losses have major implications for the economic viability and sustainability of dairy enterprises. There is a paucity of literature on mortality in calves from birth to six months, particularly at a national herd level. Previous studies have tended to focus on herd size as a risk factor for calf mortality rather than the possible influence of herd expansion. The purpose of this study is to quantify any association between dairy herd expansion and the risk of being classified as a high or low calf mortality herd based on analysis of national dairy herd identification and movement records in Ireland from 2016–2020. Results In calves aged under 6 months, herds that expanded > 20% (OR 1.23 95% CI: 1.10–1.37, p  < 0.001) and > 45% (OR 1.22, 95% CI:1.09–1.36, p  = 0.001), were more likely to have > 10% herd calf mortality, compared to herds that did not increase in size. Newly established herds were more likely to have poor mortality outcomes (OR 2.44, 95% CI: 1.82–3.29, p  < 0.001) compared to herds that did not increase in size. Herd expansion < 20% was not associated with mortality outcome. Herd ordinal location and herd size were significant risk factors for > 10% herd calf mortality. Conclusion This study has demonstrated that herds that have expanded > 20% over five years and newly established herds were more likely to have poor mortality outcomes. It suggests that new entrants into dairy farming may benefit from targeted emphasis on herd health management. The results also highlight the value of national data as a tool to determine optimisation of farm interventions and surveillance and policy decisions to prioritise animal health and welfare.

A Nature survey shows many scientists expect the virus that causes COVID-19 to become endemic, but it could pose less danger over time. A Nature survey shows many scientists expect the virus that causes COVID-19 to become endemic, but it could pose less danger over time.

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach. Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

•About two thirds of caregivers intend to vaccinate their children against COVID-19.•Most common reason for acceptance was to protect the child.•Most common reason for refusal was the vaccine’s novelty.•Child age, chronic illness, vaccination history affects willingness.•Caregiver gender, vaccination history, concern about infection affect willingness. More than 100 COVID-19 vaccine candidates are in development since the SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequence was published in January 2020. The uptake of a COVID-19 vaccine among children will be instrumental in limiting the spread of the disease as herd immunity may require vaccine coverage of up to 80% of the population. Prior history of pandemic vaccine coverage was as low as 40% among children in the United States during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. To investigate predictors associated with global caregivers’ intent to vaccinate their children against COVID-19, when the vaccine becomes available. An international cross sectional survey of 1541 caregivers arriving with their children to 16 pediatric Emergency Departments (ED) across six countries from March 26 to May 31, 2020. 65% (n = 1005) of caregivers reported that they intend to vaccinate their child against COVID-19, once a vaccine is available. A univariate and subsequent multivariate analysis found that increased intended uptake was associated with children that were older, children with no chronic illness, when fathers completed the survey, children up-to-date on their vaccination schedule, recent history of vaccination against influenza, and caregivers concerned their child had COVID-19 at the time of survey completion in the ED. The most common reason reported by caregivers intending to vaccinate was to protect their child (62%), and the most common reason reported by caregivers refusing vaccination was the vaccine’s novelty (52%). The majority of caregivers intend to vaccinate their children against COVID-19, though uptake will likely be associated with specific factors such as child and caregiver demographics and vaccination history. Public health strategies need to address barriers to uptake by providing evidence about an upcoming COVID-19 vaccine’s safety and efficacy, highlighting the risks and consequences of infection in children, and educating caregivers on the role of vaccination.

Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, whereas long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in both the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through reparameterization. We derive a nonlinear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. We show that a state of transient collective immunity (TCI) emerges well below the HIT during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic. However, this is a fragile state that wanes over time due to changing levels of social activity, and so the infection peak is not an indication of long-lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to behavioral changes in the population, driven by, for example, seasonal factors. Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life face-to-face contact networks. These results suggest that the hardest hit areas, such as New York City, have achieved TCI following the first wave of the epidemic, but likely remain below the long-term HIT. Thus, in contrast to some previous claims, these regions can still experience subsequent waves.