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Using surface observation data for the past hundred years, the contributions of year-specific climate anomaly, nationwide warming, and urban warming to hot summers in Japan were evaluated. A number of indices in temperature were defined to indicate the severity of summer heat in each year. Then, the year-to-year time series of each index was divided into a year-specific component and a temporally smoothed component, and the latter was divided into a nationwide non-urban component and an urban component. The results show that the non-urban component began to increase after the 1990s, which is approximately attributable to global warming, although there are some temperature variations on the yearly to multidecadal scales related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Oscillation (SO), whereas urban warming became apparent since the 1960s at stations in highly urbanized areas. For the recent record-breaking summer heat, the contributions of the year-specific temperature anomaly, nationwide warming, and urban warming are all evaluated to be of the order of 1 °C.

In this study, we investigated the effects of the Tibetan High near the tropopause and the North Pacific High in the troposphere on occurrences of hot or cool summers in Japan. We first classified Japan into six regions and identified hot and cool summer years in these regions from a 38-year sample (1980–2017) based on the monthly air temperature. To investigate the features of circulation fields over Asia during hot and cool summers in Japan, we calculated the composite differences (hot summer years minus cool summer years) of several variables such as geopotential height, which indicated significant high-pressure anomalies in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. These results suggest that both the North Pacific and the Tibetan Highs tend to extend to Japan during hot summer years, while cool summers seem to be associated with the weakening of these highs. We found that extension of the Tibetan High to the Japanese mainland can lead to hot summers in Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan. On the other hand, hot summers in the Southwestern Islands may be due to extension of the Tibetan High to the south. Similarly, the latitudinal direction of extension of the North Pacific High is profoundly connected with the summer climate in respective regions.

Under global warming, cold winters over Northern Asia are highly correlated with the subsequent hot summers over middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV). This high correlation may result from an oceanic bridge's effect in the Western Pacific. The mechanism may be described as follows: the atmospheric circulation anomalies of cold winters corresponds with a simultaneous warmer Western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) by decreasing surface latent heat fluxes. The warmer sea surface temperature (SST) can persist and move eastward gradually to the subsequent summer through the oceanic processes, and thus in turn affect the hot days (HDs) over MLYRV.

The summer drought of 2015 affected a large portion of continental Europe and was one of the most severe droughts in the region since summer 2003. The summer of 2015 was characterized by exceptionally high temperatures in many parts of central and eastern Europe, with daily maximum temperatures 2 °C higher than the seasonal mean (1971–2000) over most of western Europe, and more than 3 °C higher in the east. It was the hottest and climatologically driest summer over the 1950–2015 study period for an area stretching from the eastern Czech Republic to Ukraine. For Europe, as a whole, it is among the six hottest and driest summers since 1950. High evapotranspiration rates combined with a lack of precipitation affected soil moisture and vegetation and led to record low river flows in several major rivers, even beyond the drought-hit region. The 2015 drought developed rather rapidly over the Iberian Peninsula, France, southern Benelux and central Germany in May and reached peak intensity and spatial extent by August, affecting especially the eastern part of Europe. Over the summer period, there were four heat wave episodes, all associated with persistent blocking events. Upper-level atmospheric circulation over Europe was characterized by positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies flanked by a large negative anomaly to the north and west (i.e., over the central North Atlantic Ocean extending to northern Fennoscandia) and another center of positive geopotential height anomalies over Greenland and northern Canada. Simultaneously, the summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were characterized by large negative anomalies in the central North Atlantic Ocean and large positive anomalies in the Mediterranean basin. Composite analysis shows that the western Mediterranean SST is strongly related to the occurrence of dry and hot summers over the last 66 years (especially over the eastern part of Europe). The lagged relationship between the Mediterranean SST and summer drought conditions established in this study can provide valuable skill for the prediction of drought conditions over Europe on interannual to decadal timescales.

On the basis of a newly developed observational dataset and a suite of climate model simulations, we evaluate changes in summer mean wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in China from 1961 through 2080. We show that summer mean WBGT has increased almost everywhere across China since 1961 as a result of human-induced climate change. Consequently, hot summers as measured by summer mean WBGT are becoming more frequent and more conducive to heat stress. Hot summers like the hottest on record during 1961–2015 in western or eastern China are now expected occur once every 3–4 years. These hot WBGT summers have become more than 140 times as likely in eastern China in the present decade (2010s) as in the 1961–90 baseline period and more than 1000 times as likely in western China. The substantially larger influence in western China is associated with its stronger warming signal, which is likely due to the high Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes of dry soils and increases in absorbed solar radiation from the decline in mountain snow cover extent. Observation-constrained projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario indicate that, by the 2040s, almost every summer in China will be at least as hot as the hottest summer in the historical record, and by the 2060s it will be common (on average, every other year) for summers to be as much as 3.0°C hotter than the historical record, pointing to potentially large increases in the likelihood of human heat stress and to a massive adaption challenge.

In 2018 and 2019, central Europe was affected by two consecutive extreme dry and hot summers (DH18 and DH19). The DH18 event had severe impacts on ecosystems and likely affected vegetation activity in the subsequent year, for example through depletion of carbon reserves or damage from drought. Such legacies from drought and heat stress can further increase vegetation susceptibility to additional hazards. Temporally compound extremes such as DH18 and DH19 can, therefore, result in an amplification of impacts due to preconditioning effects of past disturbance legacies. Here, we evaluate how these two consecutive extreme summers impacted ecosystems in central Europe and how the vegetation responses to the first compound event (DH18) modulated the impacts of the second (DH19). To quantify changes in vegetation vulnerability to each compound event, we first train a set of statistical models for the period 2001–2017, which are then used to predict the impacts of DH18 and DH19 on enhanced vegetation index (EVI) anomalies from MODIS. These estimates correspond to expected EVI anomalies in DH18 and DH19 based on past sensitivity to climate. Large departures from the predicted values can indicate changes in vulnerability to dry and hot conditions and be used to identify modulating effects by vegetation activity and composition or other environmental factors on observed impacts. We find two regions in which the impacts of the two compound dry and hot (DH) events were significantly stronger than those expected based on previous climate–vegetation relationships. One region, largely dominated by grasslands and crops, showed much stronger impacts than expected in both DH events due to an amplification of their sensitivity to heat and drought, possibly linked to changing background CO2 and temperature conditions. A second region, dominated by forests and grasslands, showed browning from DH18 to DH19, even though dry and hot conditions were partly alleviated in 2019. This browning trajectory was mainly explained by the preconditioning role of DH18 on the impacts of DH19 due to interannual legacy effects and possibly by increased susceptibility to biotic disturbances, which are also promoted by warm conditions. Dry and hot summers are expected to become more frequent in the coming decades, posing a major threat to the stability of European forests. We show that state-of-the-art process-based models could not represent the decline in response to DH19 because they missed the interannual legacy effects from DH18 impacts. These gaps may result in an overestimation of the resilience and stability of temperate ecosystems in future model projections.

The Yangtze region of South East China has experienced several extreme hot summer months in recent years. Such events can have devastating socio–economic impacts. We use a large ensemble of initialised climate simulations to assess the current chance of unprecedented hot summer months in the Yangtze River region. We find a 10% chance of an unprecedented hot summer month each year. Our simulations suggest that monthly mean temperatures up to 3 °C hotter than the current record are possible. The dynamics of these unprecedented extremes highlights the occurrence of a stationary atmospheric wave, the Silk Road Pattern, in a significant number of extreme hot events. We present evidence that this atmospheric wave is driven by variability in the Indian summer monsoon. Other extreme events are associated with a westward shift in the western North Pacific subtropical high. The most extreme simulated events exhibit combined characteristics of both the Silk Road Pattern and the shifted western North Pacific subtropical high.

Compound warm extremes exert profound impacts on environment, health, and socioeconomics. Yang et al. (2024) indicated a shift or transition from warm‐dry extremes (WDEs), common in non‐ice‐covered areas, to warm‐wet extremes (WWEs) in ice‐covered zones. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data, this study determined the duration and frequency of WDEs and WWEs across ice‐covered and non‐ice‐covered regions. A comprehensive analysis uncovers the physical mechanisms responsible for the paradigm differences and attributes them to the weakening of land‐atmosphere interaction caused by ice‐cover, which inhibits soil moisture feedback and reduces the intensity and duration of warm events in ice‐covered areas. Both WDEs and WWEs are associated with high‐pressure systems (HPs). WDEs, situated directly beneath HPs, intensify due to adiabatic warming from subsidence motions. Conversely, WWEs, located beneath the poleward fringes of HPs, emerge from advective warming and moistening associated with poleward intrusions of warm‐moist air. Plain Language Summary Significantly rising temperatures can coincide with extreme weather events such as droughts or rainstorms to form compound warm‐dry extremes (WDEs) or warm‐wet extremes (WWEs), leading to more severe consequences than just hot weather alone. Recent findings indicate that WDEs are more prevalent in non‐ice‐covered regions where people reside and crops are cultivated, while WWEs are more common in ice‐covered areas. This study seeks to comprehend the reasons behind the paradigm differences of extreme events by analyzing the conditions during hot summers. Our research has identified two primary causes for the paradigm differences. First, in non‐ice‐covered regions, the ground warms the overlying air, which in turn dries out the soil, leading to even higher temperatures. This explains why more WDEs are observed in these areas. However, in ice‐covered regions, this process is inhibited by ice. Second, the high‐pressure systems accompanying these extreme events behave differently based on the presence or absence of ice. In non‐ice‐covered regions, these systems are located directly above the regions, exacerbating the hot‐dry conditions by pushing air downwards. Conversely, hot‐wet conditions occur in ice‐covered regions because these areas are situated beneath the poleward fringes of the systems, which transport warm and moist air from the lower latitudes. Key Points In contrast to midlatitude regions where warm‐dry extremes are common, warm‐wet extremes prevail over polar regions Poleward circulation associated with high pressure systems, rather than subsidence, produces warm‐wet conditions Snow‐ and ice‐covered surfaces neutralize the land‐air interaction feedback loop that reinforces hot‐dry spells in midlatitude regions

Temperature seasonality, the difference between summer and winter temperatures in mid–high latitudes, is an important component of the climate. Whether humans have had detectable influences on changing surface temperature seasonality at scales smaller than the subcontinental scale, where humans are directly impacted, is not clear. In this study, the first detection and attribution analysis of changes in temperature seasonality in China has been carried out. Detection and attribution of both summer and winter temperatures were also conducted, with careful consideration of observational uncertainty and the inconsistency between observation and model simulations induced by the long coastline and country border in China. The results show that the response to external forcings is robustly detectable in the spatiotemporal pattern of weakening seasonality and in that of warming winter temperature, although models may have underestimated the observed changes. The response to external forcings is detectable and consistent with the observed change in summer temperature averaged over China. Human influences are detectable in changes in seasonality and summer and winter temperatures, most robustly in winter, and these influences can be separated from those of natural forcing when averaged over China. The recent increase in summer temperature was found to be due to external forcings, and the warming hiatus in winter temperature from 1998 to 2013 was due to a statistically significant cooling trend induced by internal variability. These results will give insights into the understanding of the warming hiatus in China, as well as the hot summers and cold winters in recent years.

Does a warming world, where extremely hot summers are becoming more common, mean that cold summers will never again occur? It is crucial to know whether extremely cold summers are still possible, as such knowledge will significantly impact decisions regarding the further adaptation of crops to cold summers. Japan, which has suffered from many extremely cold summers, has managed past agricultural disruptions with emergency rice imports. In this paper, we show that a climate regime shift associated with the positive phase shift of the summer Arctic Oscillation occurred in 2010 in northeast Eurasia, making the occurrence of extremely cold summers highly unlikely as long as this new regime persists. In fact, Japan has not experienced a cold summer since 2010, while extremely hot summers have been frequent. Since 2010, a double-jet structure with subtropical and polar jets has strengthened, and the polar jet has meandered farther north of Japan, resulting in an upper-tropospheric anticyclone. This anticyclone, which extends downward and tilts southward, reaches southern Japan and prevents cold advection of oceanic air over the cold Oyashio. The Okhotsk high, known as the leading cause of cold summers, has occurred frequently in recent years; however, cold summers have not occurred due to the tilting anticyclone. The recent warming of the Oyashio weakens cold advection. The Pacific–Japan pattern, known as a remote tropical influence, has been weakened. A better understanding of the regime shift will help us understand the tilting anticyclone and the associated extreme summers in northeast Eurasia.