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"Human behavior Mathematical models."
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Outnumbered : from Facebook and Google to fake news and filter-bubbles - the algorithms that control our lives
\"In this book, David Sumpter takes an algorithm-strewn journey to the dark side of mathematics. He investigates the equations that analyse us., influence us and will (maybe) become like us, answering questions such as: Are Google algorithms racist and sexist? ; Why do election predictions fall so drastically? ; What does the future hold as we relinquish our decision-making to machines? Featuring interviews with those working at the cutting edge of algorithm research, along with a healthy dose of mathematical self-experiment, Outnumbered will explain how mathematics and statistics work in the real world, and what we should and shouldn't worry about.\"--from book cover
Book
Mind force
Connections between genes and molecules, neurons and hormones, thinking and language, people and organizations create a continuous flow of synchronized interactions. These intermingled interactions form dynamical networks across many scales, from molecular, to biological, to cognitive and social. In a sequence of cycles, the reader is guided in this heterogeneous hypernetwork to discover the fields and landscapes of Mind Force. Mind, brain, body and society emerge from the same stream through the complexity of nature: the energy of Mind Force and human attractions.
eBook
Algorithms to live by : the computer science of human decisions
Explores \"how the algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of memory, [this book] transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living\"--Amazon.com.
Book
Modeling Human Behaviors in Psychology Using Engineering Methods
The main purpose of the work is to showcase the interdisciplinary engineering approaches in modeling and understanding human behaviors during interpersonal interactions those that could be typical, distressed, or atypical. The ability to measure human behaviors quantitatively has been a core component and a major research direction in both fields of engineering and psychology - though often with distinct approaches designed for different targeted applications. Engineering methods often strive to achieve high predictive accuracies using behavioral informatics techniques; these techniques employ a combination of behavior measures derived using automated signal based descriptors, and of statistical frameworks modeled using machine learning techniques. These approaches are often distinct from the observational approaches the gold standard for the past three decades in the study of psychology, even in clinical settings. The observational approaches are largely based on human subjective judgments.
eBook
Planning for cars that coordinate with people: leveraging effects on human actions for planning and active information gathering over human internal state
Traditionally, autonomous cars treat human-driven vehicles like moving obstacles. They predict their future trajectories and plan to stay out of their way. While physically safe, this results in defensive and opaque behaviors. In reality, an autonomous car’s actions will actually affect what other cars will do in response, creating an opportunity for coordination. Our thesis is that we can leverage these responses to plan more efficient and communicative behaviors. We introduce a formulation of interaction with human-driven vehicles as an underactuated dynamical system, in which the robot’s actions have consequences on the state of the autonomous car, but also on the human actions and thus the state of the human-driven car. We model these consequences by approximating the human’s actions as (noisily) optimal with respect to some utility function. The robot uses the human actions as observations of her underlying utility function parameters. We first explore learning these parameters offline, and show that a robot planning in the resulting underactuated system is more efficient than when treating the person as a moving obstacle. We also show that the robot can target specific desired effects, like getting the person to switch lanes or to proceed first through an intersection. We then explore estimating these parameters online, and enable the robot to perform active information gathering: generating actions that purposefully probe the human in order to clarify their underlying utility parameters, like driving style or attention level. We show that this significantly outperforms passive estimation and improves efficiency. Planning in our model results in
coordination
behaviors: the robot inches forward at an intersection to see if can go through, or it reverses to make the other car proceed first. These behaviors result from the optimization, without relying on hand-coded signaling strategies. Our user studies support the utility of our model when interacting with real users.
Journal Article
Space Invaders: Pedestrian Proxemic Utility Functions and Trust Zones for Autonomous Vehicle Interactions
Understanding pedestrian proxemic utility and trust will help autonomous vehicles to plan and control interactions with pedestrians more safely and efficiently. When pedestrians cross the road in front of human-driven vehicles, the two agents use knowledge of each other’s preferences to negotiate and to determine who will yield to the other. Autonomous vehicles will require similar understandings, but previous work has shown a need for them to be provided in the form of
continuous
proxemic utility functions, which are not available from previous proxemics studies based on Hall’s
discrete
zones. To fill this gap, a new Bayesian method to infer continuous pedestrian proxemic utility functions is proposed, and related to a new definition of ‘physical trust requirement’ (PTR) for road-crossing scenarios. The method is validated on simulation data then its parameters are inferred empirically from two public datasets. Results show that pedestrian proxemic utility is best described by a hyperbolic function, and that trust by the pedestrian is required in a discrete ‘trust zone’ which emerges naturally from simple physics. The PTR concept is then shown to be capable of generating and explaining the empirically observed zone sizes of Hall’s discrete theory of proxemics.
Journal Article
Mathematical tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics
Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic models and methods.
Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamicsfully explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology. This comprehensive and accessible book also features numerous detailed exercises throughout; full elaborations to all exercises are provided.
Covers the latest research in mathematical modeling of infectious disease epidemiologyIntegrates deterministic and stochastic approachesTeaches skills in model construction, analysis, inference, and interpretationFeatures numerous exercises and their detailed elaborationsMotivated by real-world applications throughout
eBook
Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data
Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models' realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.
Journal Article
Modelling the scaling properties of human mobility
Individual human trajectories are characterized by fat-tailed distributions of jump sizes and waiting times, suggesting the relevance of continuous-time random-walk (CTRW) models for human mobility. However, human traces are barely random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modelling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on human mobility, captured by mobile-phone traces, to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility. The model accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws, but also allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Journal Article
Behavioral modeling of human choices reveals dissociable effects of physical effort and temporal delay on reward devaluation
There has been considerable interest from the fields of biology, economics, psychology, and ecology about how decision costs decrease the value of rewarding outcomes. For example, formal descriptions of how reward value changes with increasing temporal delays allow for quantifying individual decision preferences, as in animal species populating different habitats, or normal and clinical human populations. Strikingly, it remains largely unclear how humans evaluate rewards when these are tied to energetic costs, despite the surge of interest in the neural basis of effort-guided decision-making and the prevalence of disorders showing a diminished willingness to exert effort (e.g., depression). One common assumption is that effort discounts reward in a similar way to delay. Here we challenge this assumption by formally comparing competing hypotheses about effort and delay discounting. We used a design specifically optimized to compare discounting behavior for both effort and delay over a wide range of decision costs (Experiment 1). We then additionally characterized the profile of effort discounting free of model assumptions (Experiment 2). Contrary to previous reports, in both experiments effort costs devalued reward in a manner opposite to delay, with small devaluations for lower efforts, and progressively larger devaluations for higher effort-levels (concave shape). Bayesian model comparison confirmed that delay-choices were best predicted by a hyperbolic model, with the largest reward devaluations occurring at shorter delays. In contrast, an altogether different relationship was observed for effort-choices, which were best described by a model of inverse sigmoidal shape that is initially concave. Our results provide a novel characterization of human effort discounting behavior and its first dissociation from delay discounting. This enables accurate modelling of cost-benefit decisions, a prerequisite for the investigation of the neural underpinnings of effort-guided choice and for understanding the deficits in clinical disorders characterized by behavioral inactivity.
Journal Article