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123 result(s) for "Human beings Forecasting."
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Homo deus : a brief history of tomorrow
\"Over the past century humankind has managed to do the impossible and rein in famine, plague, and war ... For the first time ever, more people die from eating too much than from eating too little; more people die from old age than from infectious diseases; and more people commit suicide than are killed by soldiers, terrorists, and criminals put together. The average American is a thousand times more likely to die from binging at McDonald's than from being blown up by al Qaeda. What then will replace famine, plague, and war at the top of the human agenda?\"--Amazon.com.
Cyborg Selves
What is the 'posthuman'? Is becoming posthuman inevitable-something which will happen to us, or something we will do to ourselves? Why do some long for it, while others fearfully reject it? These questions underscore the fact that the posthuman is a name for the unknown future, and therefore, not a single idea but a jumble of competing visions - some of which may be exciting, some of which may be frightening, and which is which depends on who you are, and what you desire to be. This book aims to clarify current theological and philosophical dialogue on the posthuman by arguing that theologians must pay attention to which form of the posthuman they are engaging, and to demonstrate that a 'posthuman theology' is not only possible, but desirable, when the vision of the posthuman is one which coincides with a theological vision of the human.
Predictive analytics : the power to predict who will click, buy, lie, or die
\"Mesmerizing & fascinating...\" — The Seattle Post-Intelligencer \"The Freakonomics of big data.\" —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a \"how to\" for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning)unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: * What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. * Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. * Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. * Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. * How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. * Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. * How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! * How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. * How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. * 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.
Anthropogenic influences on the African easterly jet–African easterly wave system
The African easterly jet (AEJ) and African easterly waves (AEWs) can have both local and far-reaching impacts on weather. It is therefore crucial to understand how the AEJ and AEWs will respond to future climate change. In this study, we examine anthropogenic influences on the AEJ–AEW system using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configured as a tropical channel model (TCM). Hindcast simulations for the years 2001–2010 were performed using the WRF TCM, and ten additional years of simulations were performed using the pseudo-global warming method with the initial and boundary conditions of the model modified as if it were the late twenty-first century. A comparison of the simulations from the two climate scenarios indicates robust changes to both the AEJ and AEWs. For the AEJ, the jet is weaker and shifted northwards and upwards in the future climate, in association with an increase in precipitation over the Sahel and a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient. For the AEWs, there is an increase in the number and strength of the waves in the future climate, in association with an increase in the baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions. The barotropic energy conversion in particular has a larger contribution in the future climate, which manifests in the southern AEW track experiencing greater future strengthening than the northern track.
A natural history of the future : what the laws of biology tell us about the destiny of the human species
Over the past century, our species has made unprecedented technological innovations with which we have sought to control nature. From river levees to enormous one-crop fields, we continue to try to reshape nature for our purposes - so much so it seems we may be in danger of destroying it. In 'A Natural History of the Future', biologist Rob Dunn argues that nothing could be further from the truth: rather than asking whether nature will survive us, better to ask whether we will survive nature.
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Human input to extreme rainfall A significant effect of anthropogenic activities has already been detected in observed trends in temperature and mean precipitation. But to date, no study has formally identified such a human fingerprint on extreme precipitation — an increase in which is one of the central theoretical expectations for a warming climate. Seung-Ki Min and colleagues compare observations and simulations of rainfall between 1951 and 1999 in North America, Europe and northern Asia. They find a statistically significant effect of increased greenhouse gases on observed increases in extreme precipitation events over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area. A significant effect of anthropogenic activities has already been detected in observed trends in temperature and mean precipitation. But so far, no study has formally identified such a human fingerprint on extreme precipitation — an increase in which is one of the central theoretical expectations for a warming climate. This study compares observations and simulations and detects a statistically significant effect of increased greenhouse gases on observed increases in extreme precipitation events over much of the Northern Hemisphere land area. Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment 1 , 2 . Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area 3 , 4 , 5 , is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature—and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 —it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation 3 , 5 , 7 . Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model–model comparisons 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 . Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming 16 .
Underestimating Nearby Nature: Affective Forecasting Errors Obscure the Happy Path to Sustainability
Modern lifestyles disconnect people from nature, and this may have adverse consequences for the well-being of both humans and the environment. In two experiments, we found that although outdoor walks in nearby nature made participants much happier than indoor walks did, participants made affective forecasting errors, such that they systematically underestimated nature's hedonic benefitThe pleasant moods experienced on outdoor nature walks facilitated a subjective sense of connection with nature, a construct strongly linked with concern for the environment and environmentally sustainable behavior. To the extent that affective forecasts determine choices, our findings suggest that people fail to maximize their time in nearby nature and thus miss opportunities to increase their happiness and relatedness to nature. Our findings suggest a happy path to sustainability, whereby contact with nature fosters individual happiness and environmentally responsible behavior.