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"Human epidemics"
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Temporal and Spatial Effects of Extreme Drought Events on Human Epidemics over Ancient China in 1784–1787 CE
Extreme drought events can impact human health, notably triggering epidemics that impose significant global health and economic burdens. Understanding these effects and developing response strategies is crucial. However, there is limited epidemiological evidence on how climate change influenced ancient epidemics before large-scale urbanization and frequent population movements. In this study, we utilized the Reconstructed East Asian Climate Historical Encoded Series (REACHES) climate database and the self-constructed ancient Chinese epidemics database to examine extreme drought events in ancient China from 1784–1787 CE. We analyzed factors like grain prices, population density, and socioeconomic conditions to explore the temporal and spatial mechanism and influence the degree of extreme drought events on epidemics outbreaks. The results show that there is a clear positive link between drought and the spread of epidemics, with a notable one-year lag effect of drought. Drought impacts epidemics directly and indirectly through locust plague, famine, crop failure, and social turmoil, with famine being the most crucial factor. Official disaster management can mitigate epidemics. This study intuitively shows the relationship between extreme drought events and epidemics in ancient China and offering insights into the climate change-epidemic relationship. Placing the conclusions of this paper in a broader context has global implications, providing historical experience for polycrisis and modern challenges.
Journal Article
Spillover : animal infections and the next human pandemic
\"As globalization spreads and as we destroy the ancient ecosystems, we encounter strange and dangerous infections that originate in animals but that can be transmitted to humans. Diseases that were contained are being set free and the results are potentially catastrophic. In a journey that takes him from southern China to the Congo, from Bangladesh to Australia, David Ouammen tracks these infections to their source and asks what we can do to prevent some new pandemic spreading across the face of the earth\"--back cover.
Book
The Spread of the Mosquito‐Transmitted West Nile Virus in North America and Europe
West Nile virus (WNV) disease, a mosquito‐transmitted Flavivirus infection, represents a substantial public health research interest. This virus was unknown in the Western hemisphere until it was introduced in 1999 into an immunologically naïve population. WNV caused an epizootic and epidemic in New York City. The infection then swept over North America, causing mass mortality in birds and cumulatively 60,000 human cases, half of whom were hospitalised, mostly with neurological symptoms. The virus closely resembled a goose virus isolated in Israel in 1998. Mosquitoes of the genus Culex were identified as the insect viral vectors. WNV can infect more than 300 bird species, but in the US, the American robin (Turdus migratorius) represented the ecologically most important bird viral reservoir. Mosquito‐to‐mosquito viral transmission might amplify the viral spread, and iatrogenic WNV transmission was also observed, leading to the screening of blood products. Compared with African WNV isolates, the New York WNV isolate NY99 showed a mutation in the nonstructural protein NS3 that increased its virulence in birds and was also observed in WNV outbreaks from Romania in 1996 and from Russia in 1999. During its spread across the US, NY99 acquired a mutation in the envelope gene E that favoured viral infection in the insect vector. Europe reported 1200 annual WNV cases in 2024, with a focus in Mediterranean countries, but a northward spread of the infection to Germany and The Netherlands was also noted. Global warming is likely to affect the geographical distribution of vector‐borne infections such that people living in temperate climate areas might be increasingly exposed to these infections. Therefore, research on temperature effects on WNV transmission by Culex mosquitoes has become a recent focus of research. Pertinent climate aspects of WNV infections are retraced in the present review. The West Nile flavivirus is not only maintained in the USA in a primary infection cycle between the American robin and Culex mosquitoes but also causes incidental infections in horses and humans, causing epizootics and epidemics. The ecological conditions influencing virus transmission in North America and Europe are reviewed.
Journal Article
Pandemic : how climate, the environment, and superbugs increase the risk
\"Learn about how scientists have predicted the way diseases will evolve and effect our world in the future\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping
Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.
Journal Article
The last dog on Earth
Logan Moore hates everyone except his dog Jack, but when a mysterious disease turns dogs into vicious, raging animals, Logan decides to runaway to keep his dog safe.
Book
A model for predicting the spread patterns of human and computational epidemics on complex temporal networks
Introduction
In this paper, a novel model for predicting the spread patterns of human and computer epidemics on the basis of complex temporal networks is presented. This research addresses existing challenges in forecasting behaviors and crisis escalation by analyzing the dissemination of viruses and malware via cumulative data and related behavioral patterns.
Method
The proposed model employs the analysis of historical data and temporal dependencies to simulate various interactions between networks and temporal influences, thereby predicting crisis scenarios.
Results
The proposed model, which considers various interactions between networks and temporal influences, is capable of better simulating nonlinear and complex behaviors. This innovation can assist researchers and decision-makers in developing more effective strategies for managing health and security crises. Ultimately, this research provides a deeper understanding of the processes underlying the spread of diseases and malware and can serve as a foundation for future studies in this field.
Journal Article
Pandemics, science and policy : H1N1 and the World Health Organization
\"Pandemics, Science and Policy examines the case study of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) representation and management of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic. It analyses key criticisms made about the WHO's actions through an examination of the social context in which pandemic management decisions were made, and ultimately illustrations the various ways in which the WHO's account was vulnerable to contestation.Abeysinghe provides a persuasive account of the interplay between uncertain science and the creation of global policy. The book demonstrates that the fragility of the WHO's account and decisions largely lay in both the (lack of) scientific evidence the WHO received, and its use and representation of this evidence. Importantly, it shows how uncertain risks can affect policy and action on the global level\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
Sero-prevalence and spatial distribution of Rift Valley fever infection among agro-pastoral and pastoral communities during Interepidemic period in the Serengeti ecosystem, northern Tanzania
Background
In the past two decades, Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreaks have been reported twice in Tanzania, with the most recent outbreak occurring in 2006/07. Given the ecology and climatic factors that support mosquito vectors in the Serengeti ecosystem, we hypothesized a continued transmission of RVF virus (RVFV) during interepidemic periods. This study was carried out to determine sero-prevalence, spatial distribution and factors associated with RVF in at-risk agro-pastoral and pastoral communities in the Serengeti Ecosystem in northern Tanzania.
Methods
A cross sectional study was carried out to establish the general exposure to RVFV by detecting anti–RVFV IgG and anti–RVFV IgM using ELISA techniques. The health facilities where human subjects were blood sampled concurrent with interviews included Bunda District Designated Hospital, Wasso DDH, Endulen hospital, Arash, Malambo, Olbabal, and Piyaya dispenaries (Ngorongoro district) and Nyerere DDH (Serengeti district) respectively. In addition, human subjects from Lamadi ward (Busega district) were recruited while receiving medical service at Bunda DDH. We conducted logistic regression to assess independent risk factor and mapped the hotspot areas for exposure to RVFV.
Results
A total of 751 subjects (males = 41.5%; females = 58.5%) with a median age of 35.5 years were enrolled at out-patient clinics. Of them, 34 (4.5, 95%CI 3.3–6.3%) tested positive for anti–RVFV IgG. Of the 34 that tested positive for anti–RVFV IgG, six (17.6%) tested positive for anti–RVFV IgM. Odds of exposure were higher among pastoral communities (aOR 2.9, 95% C.I: 1.21–6.89,
p
< 0.01), and agro-pastoral communities residing in Ngorongoro District (aOR 1.8, 95% C.I 1.14–3.39,
p
= 0.03). Hotspot areas for exposure to RVFV were Malambo, Olbalbal and Piyaya wards in Ngorongoro district, and Lamadi ward in Busega district.
Conclusions
The study found both previous and recent exposure of RVFV in humans residing in the Serengeti ecosystem as antibodies against both IgG and IgM were detected. Detection of anti-RVF IgM suggests an ongoing transmission of RVFV in humans during inter-epidemic periods. Residents of Ngorongoro district were most exposed to RVFV compared to Bunda and Serengeti districts. Therefore, the risk of exposure to RVFV was higher among pastoral communities compared to farming communities.
Journal Article