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\"Evolutionary biologist Scott Solomon draws on the explosion of discoveries in recent years to examine the future evolution of our species. Combining knowledge of our past with current trends, Solomon offers convincing evidence that evolutionary forces still affect us today. But how will modernization--including longer lifespans, changing diets, global travel, and widespread use of medicine and contraceptives--affect our evolutionary future?\" --publisher description.

This book examines peak oil in the larger context of human ecology. Greer sees peak oil as a result of historical trends that will continue to evolve for centuries. He advocates consciously maximizing creative approaches to address this global challenge.

Human influenza occurs annually in most temperate climatic zones of the world, with epidemics peaking in the cold winter months. Considerable debate surrounds the relative role of epidemic dynamics, viral evolution, and climatic drivers in driving year-to-year variability of outbreaks. The ultimate test of understanding is prediction; however, existing influenza models rarely forecast beyond a single year at best. Here, we use a simple epidemiological model to reveal multiannual predictability based on high-quality influenza surveillance data for Israel; the model fit is corroborated by simple metapopulation comparisons within Israel. Successful forecasts are driven by temperature, humidity, antigenic drift, and immunity loss. Essentially, influenza dynamics are a balance between large perturbations following significant antigenic jumps, interspersed with nonlinear epidemic dynamics tuned by climatic forcing.

Effective pandemic preparedness relies on anticipating viral mutations that are able to evade host immune responses to facilitate vaccine and therapeutic design. However, current strategies for viral evolution prediction are not available early in a pandemic—experimental approaches require host polyclonal antibodies to test against 1 – 16 , and existing computational methods draw heavily from current strain prevalence to make reliable predictions of variants of concern 17 – 19 . To address this, we developed EVEscape, a generalizable modular framework that combines fitness predictions from a deep learning model of historical sequences with biophysical and structural information. EVEscape quantifies the viral escape potential of mutations at scale and has the advantage of being applicable before surveillance sequencing, experimental scans or three-dimensional structures of antibody complexes are available. We demonstrate that EVEscape, trained on sequences available before 2020, is as accurate as high-throughput experimental scans at anticipating pandemic variation for SARS-CoV-2 and is generalizable to other viruses including influenza, HIV and understudied viruses with pandemic potential such as Lassa and Nipah. We provide continually revised escape scores for all current strains of SARS-CoV-2 and predict probable further mutations to forecast emerging strains as a tool for continuing vaccine development ( evescape.org ). EVEscape, a flexible framework using deep learning and biophysical structural information, enables early identification of concerning mutations in viruses with pandemic potential, facilitating the development of vaccines and therapeutics.

Human seasonal influenza viruses evolve rapidly, enabling the virus population to evade immunity and reinfect previously infected individuals. Antigenic properties are largely determined by the surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA), and amino acid substitutions at exposed epitope sites in HA mediate loss of recognition by antibodies. Here, we show that antigenic differences measured through serological assay data are well described by a sum of antigenic changes along the path connecting viruses in a phylogenetic tree. This mapping onto the tree allows prediction of antigenicity from HA sequence data alone. The mapping can further be used to make predictions about the makeup of the future A(H3N2) seasonal influenza virus population, and we compare predictions between models with serological and sequence data. To make timely model output readily available, we developed a web browser-based application that visualizes antigenic data on a continuously updated phylogeny.

Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet received sufficient attention. Phenotypic plasticity, the direct influence of environment on the development of individual phenotypes, is increasingly considered an important component of phenotypic change in the wild and should be incorporated in models of population persistence. Environmental sensitivity of selection, the change in the optimum phenotype with the environment, still crucially needs empirical assessment. We use environmental tolerance curves and other examples of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to illustrate how these mechanistic approaches can be developed for predictive purposes.

Given a sample of genome sequences from an asexual population, can one predict its evolutionary future? Here we demonstrate that the branching patterns of reconstructed genealogical trees contains information about the relative fitness of the sampled sequences and that this information can be used to predict successful strains. Our approach is based on the assumption that evolution proceeds by accumulation of small effect mutations, does not require species specific input and can be applied to any asexual population under persistent selection pressure. We demonstrate its performance using historical data on seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus. We predict the progenitor lineage of the upcoming influenza season with near optimal performance in 30% of cases and make informative predictions in 16 out of 19 years. Beyond providing a tool for prediction, our ability to make informative predictions implies persistent fitness variation among circulating influenza A/H3N2 viruses. When viruses multiply, they copy their genetic material to make clones of themselves. However, the genetic material in the clone is often slightly different from the genetic material in the original virus. These mutations can be caused by mistakes made during copying or by radiation or chemicals. Further mutations arise when the clones multiply, which means that, after many generations, there will be quite large differences in the genetic material carried by many members of the population. Most mutations have little or no effect on the ‘fitness’ of an individual - that is, on its ability to survive and multiply - but some mutations do have an influence. Some viruses, like seasonal influenza (flu) viruses, can mutate so rapidly that the most common strains change from year to year. This is why new flu vaccines are needed every year. To date most attempts to predict the evolution of seasonal flu viruses have focused on identifying specific features within the genetic sequences that might indicate fitness. However, such approaches require lots of information about the viruses, and this information is often not available. To address this problem, Neher, Russell and Shraiman have developed a more general method to predict fitness from virus genetic sequences. First, a ‘family tree’ for a virus population - which shows how each strain of the virus is related to other strains - was constructed by comparing the genetic sequences. The next step was based on the observation that as long as differences in fitness arise from the accumulation of multiple mutations, the branching structure of this family tree will bear a visible imprint of the natural selection process as it unfolds. Using this insight and methods borrowed from statistical physics, Neher et al. then analyzed the shape and branching pattern of the tree to work out the fitness of the different strains relative to each other. Neher et al. tested the method using historical influenza A virus data. In 16 of the 19 years studied, the family tree approach made meaningful predictions about which viruses were most likely to give rise to future epidemics. The ability to predict influenza virus evolution from tree shape alone suggests that influenza virus evolution may be more predictable than previously expected.

Recently, a growing number of biological research and scientific experiments have demonstrated that microRNA (miRNA) affects the development of human complex diseases. Discovering miRNA-disease associations plays an increasingly vital role in devising diagnostic and therapeutic tools for diseases. However, since uncovering associations via experimental methods is expensive and time-consuming, novel and effective computational methods for association prediction are in demand. In this study, we developed a computational model of Matrix Decomposition and Heterogeneous Graph Inference for miRNA-disease association prediction (MDHGI) to discover new miRNA-disease associations by integrating the predicted association probability obtained from matrix decomposition through sparse learning method, the miRNA functional similarity, the disease semantic similarity, and the Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity for diseases and miRNAs into a heterogeneous network. Compared with previous computational models based on heterogeneous networks, our model took full advantage of matrix decomposition before the construction of heterogeneous network, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. MDHGI obtained AUCs of 0.8945 and 0.8240 in the global and the local leave-one-out cross validation, respectively. Moreover, the AUC of 0.8794+/-0.0021 in 5-fold cross validation confirmed its stability of predictive performance. In addition, to further evaluate the model's accuracy, we applied MDHGI to four important human cancers in three different kinds of case studies. In the first type, 98% (Esophageal Neoplasms) and 98% (Lymphoma) of top 50 predicted miRNAs have been confirmed by at least one of the two databases (dbDEMC and miR2Disease) or at least one experimental literature in PubMed. In the second type of case study, what made a difference was that we removed all known associations between the miRNAs and Lung Neoplasms before implementing MDHGI on Lung Neoplasms. As a result, 100% (Lung Neoplasms) of top 50 related miRNAs have been indexed by at least one of the three databases (dbDEMC, miR2Disease and HMDD V2.0) or at least one experimental literature in PubMed. Furthermore, we also tested our prediction method on the HMDD V1.0 database to prove the applicability of MDHGI to different datasets. The results showed that 50 out of top 50 miRNAs related with the breast neoplasms were validated by at least one of the three databases (HMDD V2.0, dbDEMC, and miR2Disease) or at least one experimental literature.

Atmospheric reactions and slow geological processes controlled Earth's earliest nitrogen cycle, and by approximately 2.7 billion years ago, a linked suite of microbial processes evolved to form the modern nitrogen cycle with robust natural feedbacks and controls. Over the past century, however, the development of new agricultural practices to satisfy a growing global demand for food has drastically disrupted the nitrogen cycle. This has led to extensive eutrophication of fresh waters and coastal zones as well as increased inventories of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O). Microbial processes will ultimately restore balance to the nitrogen cycle, but the damage done by humans to the nitrogen economy of the planet will persist for decades, possibly centuries, if active intervention and careful management strategies are not initiated.