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Background, aim and scope In 2005, a comprehensive comparison of life cycle impact assessment toxicity characterisation models was initiated by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)–Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Life Cycle Initiative, directly involving the model developers of CalTOX, IMPACT 2002, USES-LCA, BETR, EDIP, WATSON and EcoSense. In this paper, we describe this model comparison process and its results—in particular the scientific consensus model developed by the model developers. The main objectives of this effort were (1) to identify specific sources of differences between the models’ results and structure, (2) to detect the indispensable model components and (3) to build a scientific consensus model from them, representing recommended practice. Materials and methods A chemical test set of 45 organics covering a wide range of property combinations was selected for this purpose. All models used this set. In three workshops, the model comparison participants identified key fate, exposure and effect issues via comparison of the final characterisation factors and selected intermediate outputs for fate, human exposure and toxic effects for the test set applied to all models. Results Through this process, we were able to reduce inter-model variation from an initial range of up to 13 orders of magnitude down to no more than two orders of magnitude for any substance. This led to the development of USEtox, a scientific consensus model that contains only the most influential model elements. These were, for example, process formulations accounting for intermittent rain, defining a closed or open system environment or nesting an urban box in a continental box. Discussion The precision of the new characterisation factors (CFs) is within a factor of 100–1,000 for human health and 10–100 for freshwater ecotoxicity of all other models compared to 12 orders of magnitude variation between the CFs of each model, respectively. The achieved reduction of inter-model variability by up to 11 orders of magnitude is a significant improvement. Conclusions USEtox provides a parsimonious and transparent tool for human health and ecosystem CF estimates. Based on a referenced database, it has now been used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances and forms the basis of the recommendations from UNEP-SETAC’s Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterisation of toxic impacts in life cycle assessment. Recommendations and perspectives We provide both recommended and interim (not recommended and to be used with caution) characterisation factors for human health and freshwater ecotoxicity impacts. After a process of consensus building among stakeholders on a broad scale as well as several improvements regarding a wider and easier applicability of the model, USEtox will become available to practitioners for the calculation of further CFs.

This study provides a high-resolution reconstruction of the vegetation of the Argive Plain (Peloponnese, Greece) covering 5000 years from the Early Bronze Age onwards. The well dated pollen record from ancient Lake Lerna has been interpreted in the light of archaeological and historical sources, climatic data from the same core and other regional proxies. Our results demonstrate a significant degree of human impact on the environments of the Argive Plain throughout the study period. During the Early Bronze Age evidence of a thermophilous vegetation is seen in the pollen record, representing the mixed deciduous oak woodland of the Peloponnesian uplands. The plain was mainly used for the cultivation of cereals, whereas local fen conditions prevailed at the coring site. Towards the end of this period an increasing water table is recorded and the fen turns into a lake, despite more arid conditions. In the Late Bronze Age, the presence of important palatial centres modified the landscape resulting in decrease of mixed deciduous oak woodland and increase in open land, partly used for grazing. Possibly, the human management produced a permanent hydrological change at Lake Lerna. From the Archaic period onwards the increasing human pressure in association with local drier conditions caused landscape instability, as attested by a dramatic alluvial event recorded in the Pinus curve at the end of the Hellenistic Age. Wet conditions coincided with Roman times and favoured a forest regeneration pattern in the area, at the same time as we see the most intensive olive cultivation in the pollen record. The establishment of an economic landscape primarily based on pastures is recorded in the Byzantine period and continues until modern times. Overgrazing and fires in combination with arid conditions likely caused degradation of the vegetation into garrigue, as seen in the area of the Argive Plain today.

Human activity has a profound influence on river discharges, hydrological extremes and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the simulation of mean, high- and low-flows. The analysis is performed for 471 gauging stations across the globe for the period 1971-2010. We find that the inclusion of HIP improves the performance of the GHMs, both in managed and near-natural catchments. For near-natural catchments, the improvement in performance results from improvements in incoming discharges from upstream managed catchments. This finding is robust across the GHMs, although the level of improvement and the reasons for it vary greatly. The inclusion of HIP leads to a significant decrease in the bias of the long-term mean monthly discharge in 36%-73% of the studied catchments, and an improvement in the modeled hydrological variability in 31%-74% of the studied catchments. Including HIP in the GHMs also leads to an improvement in the simulation of hydrological extremes, compared to when HIP is excluded. Whilst the inclusion of HIP leads to decreases in the simulated high-flows, it can lead to either increases or decreases in the low-flows. This is due to the relative importance of the timing of return flows and reservoir operations as well as their associated uncertainties. Even with the inclusion of HIP, we find that the model performance is still not optimal. This highlights the need for further research linking human management and hydrological domains, especially in those areas in which human impacts are dominant. The large variation in performance between GHMs, regions and performance indicators, calls for a careful selection of GHMs, model components and evaluation metrics in future model applications.

In the face of environmental uncertainty due to anthropogenic climate change, islands are at the front lines of global change, threatened by sea level rise, habitat alteration, extinctions and declining biodiversity. Islands also stand at the forefront of scientific study for understanding the deep history of human ecodynamics and to build sustainable future systems. We summarize the long history of human interactions with Polynesian, Mediterranean, Californian and Caribbean island ecosystems, documenting the effects of various waves of human settlement and socioeconomic systems, from hunter–gatherer–fishers, to agriculturalists, to globalized colonial interests. We identify degradation of island environments resulting from human activities, as well as cases of human management of resources to enhance productivity and create more sustainable systems. These case studies suggest that within a general global pattern of progressive island degradation, there was no single trajectory of human impact, but rather complex effects based on variable island physiographies, human subsistence strategies, population densities, technologies, sociopolitical organization and decision-making.

Cultural landscapes are priority research themes addressed in many fields of knowledge. Botanists can explore the ecological, formal and cognitive level of cultural landscapes with different approaches. Palynologists study both palaeoenvironmental (off-site) and archaeological (on-site) records and are, therefore, in a privileged corner to observe the origin and history of present landscapes, what is their true nature and vocation, what must be preserved or transformed for the future. The study of an archaeological site shows short space–time events and the behaviour of a few people. In order, though, to attain a regional and cross-area cultural landscape reconstruction, many sites must be studied as part of a regional multi-point site and with an interdisciplinary approach. The likelihood to observe human-induced environments in pollen diagrams depends on the nature and productivity of human-related plant species. In the Mediterranean area, many Palaeolithic, Mesolithic and Neolithic sites point to the long-term action on the environment. However, the pollen signal of pre-Holocene and early Holocene human impact is ambiguous or weak. The effects of culture became evident, and possibly irreversible, as a consequence of human permanence in a certain land. In the Bronze age, the establishment of human-induced environments was evident from the combination of decrease of forest cover and increase of cereal and synanthropic pollen types in pollen records.

Landslides pose a devastating threat to human health, killing thousands of people annually. Human vulnerability is a crucial element of landslide risk reduction, yet up until now, all methods for estimating the human consequences of landslides rely on subjective, expert judgment. Furthermore, these methods do not explore the underlying causes of mortality or inform strategies to reduce landslide risk. In light of these issues, we develop a data‐driven tool to estimate an individual's probability of death based on landslide intensity, which can be used directly in landslide risk assessment. We find that between inundation depths of approximately 1–6 m, human behavior is the primary driver of mortality. Landslide vulnerability is strongly correlated with the economic development of a region, but landslide losses are not stratified by gender and age to the degree of other natural hazards. We observe that relatively simple actions, such as moving to an upper floor or a prepared refuge space, increase the odds of survival by up to a factor of 12. Additionally, community‐scale hazard awareness programs and training for citizen first responders offer a potent means to maximize survival rates in landslides. Key Points Many modern estimates of human vulnerability to landslides rely on subjective judgment and ignore the role of human behavior We present a human vulnerability curve that links an individual's probability of death to landslide inundation depth We find that human behavior drives vulnerability at inundation depths of 0.9–5.9 m and suggest practical actions to reduce personal risk

The planetary boundaries framework defines the “safe operating space for humanity” represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross‐scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches. Key Points Local and regional water management responds to and is influenced by global water cycle processes The planetary boundaries framework is useful for reconciling local and global water sustainability goals The framework can be applied at scales including nations, watersheds, aquifers, or commercial entities

Seed dispersal is a key process affecting the structure, composition and spatial dynamics of plant populations. Numerous plant species in the tropics rely upon animals to disperse their seeds. Humans have altered mammalian movements, which will likely affect seed dispersal distances (SDD). Altered SDD may have a range of consequences for plant communities including reduced seedling recruitment and plant biomass, seed trait homogenization, altered gene flow and a reduced capacity to respond to environmental changes. Therefore, modelling the consequences of altered animal behaviour on ecosystem processes is important for predicting how ecosystems will respond to human impacts. While previous research has focused on the link between animal species extirpation and SDD, it remains unclear how changes in mammalian movement will impact SDD. Here we implemented a mechanistic modelling approach to examine how mammalian movement reductions impact SDD in the tropics. We combined allometric theory with a mechanistic seed dispersal model to estimate SDD via the movement of 37 large frugivorous mammals (> 10 kg) in the tropics under different levels of human footprint, a global proxy of direct and indirect human disturbances. Our results suggest that assemblage‐level SDD reductions are estimated to be up to 80% across the tropics in response to human disturbance. This is particularly the case in areas with high human impact such as agricultural landscapes and suburban areas. The region with the largest reductions in SDD was the Asia‐Pacific with average reductions of 25%, followed by Central–South America (16%) and then Africa (15%). Our study provides insights into how human‐induced changes in movement behaviour of large mammals could translate into altered ecosystem functioning.

Comparing distributional information derived from fossils with the modern distribution of species, we summarize the changing bird communities of the Bahamian Archipelago across deep ecological time. While our entire dataset consists of 7,600+ identified fossils from 32 sites on 15 islands (recording 137 species of resident and migratory birds), we focus on the landbirds from four islands with the best fossil records, three from the Late Pleistocene (∼25 to 10 ka [1,000 y ago]) and one from the Holocene (∼10 to 0 ka). The Late Pleistocene sites feature 51 resident species that have lost one or more Bahamian populations; 29 of these species do not occur in any of the younger Holocene sites (or in the Bahamas today). Of these 29 species, 17 have their closest affinities to species now or formerly living in Cuba and/or North America. A set of 27 species of landbirds, most of them extant somewhere today, was more widespread in the Bahamas in the prehistoric Holocene (∼10 to 0.5 ka) than they are today; 16 of these 27 species were recorded as Pleistocene fossils as well. No single site adequately captures the entire landbird fauna of the combined focal islands. Information from all sites is required to assess changes in Bahamian biodiversity (including endemism) since the Late Pleistocene. The Bahamian islands are smaller, flatter, lower, and more biotically depauperate than the Greater Antilles, resulting in more vulnerable bird communities.