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We estimate a dynamic life cycle model of labor supply, fertility, and savings, incorporating occupational choices, with specific wage paths and skill atrophy that vary over the career. This allows us to understand the trade-off between occupational choice and desired fertility, as well as sorting both into the labor market and across occupations. We quantify the life cycle career costs associated with children, how they decompose into loss of skills during interruptions, lost earnings opportunities, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We analyze the long-run effects of policies that encourage fertility and show that they are considerably smaller than short-run effects.

This paper analyzes how changes in the skill mix of local labor supply are absorbed by the economy, distinguishing between three adjustment mechanisms: wages, expansion in size of those production units using the more abundant skill group more intensively, and more intensive use of the more abundant skill group within production units. We contribute to the literature by analyzing these adjustments on the firm rather than industry level, using German administrative data. We show that most adjustments occur within firms through changes in relative factor intensities and that firms entering and exiting the market are an important additional absorption mechanism.

\"We estimate the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of different types of government-sponsored training in West Germany using particularly rich data that allows us to control for selectivity by matching methods and to measure interesting outcome variables over eight years after a program's start. We use distance-weighted radius matching together with a bias removal procedure based on weighted regressions in order to increase the precision and robustness of standard matching estimators. We find negative employment effects in the short term for all program types, effects whose magnitude and persistence is directly related to program duration. In the longer term, training seems to increase employment rates by 10 - 20 percentage points. For most programs the longer-term positive effects seem to be sustainable over the eight-year observation period.\" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Evaluation; anwendungsorientiert. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1975 bis 2002.

This paper explores the short-and long-term effects on wages of absence from work for young highly attached skilled male and female workers in West Germany. The analysis distinguishes different types of career absence: unemployment, maternity leave for female workers, compulsory service for male workers and other non-work spells. We find negative effects for all types of work absence, except for compulsory service for men. Compulsory service has a positive short-term wage effect. Unemployment decreases wages in the short term only, and for women more strongly than for men. Maternity leave leads to substantial losses for women. An important finding of this study is that maternity leave leads to substantially higher wage losses than other types of work absence, especially in the long term.

\"The statutory pension system is the most important source of income for senior citizens in Germany. Due to increasing disruptions in employment biographies since the 1970s and due to the mass unemployment in eastern Germany since the 1990s, there is a growing fear of postretirement poverty in Germany. We develop a microsimulation model to compare the distribution of statutory pension incomes for new retirees in 2020 with the incomes of new retirees in 2004. The pension income distribution is calculated for eastern and western Germany separately, for men and women, and for different skill levels. Throughout Germany, we find growing postretirement poverty, especially among low-skilled workers. Eastern Germany will lose its current advantage in high pensions and low inequality.\" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: Theoriebildung; Grundlagenforschung; Simulation; prognostisch; empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 2004 bis 2022.

\"Der Datensatz, der in Deutschland am häufigsten benutzt wurde, um Erwerbsunterbrechungen von jungen Müttern zu untersuchen, ist das sozio-ökonomische Panel. Ein alternativer Datensatz ist die wesentlich größere IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe (IABS). Dieser Datensatz enthält zwar keine direkten Informationen über das Geburtsdatum von Kindern. Mütter im Erziehungsurlaub können jedoch über Erwerbsunterbrechungen identifiziert werden. Hier gibt es jedoch zwei Probleme. Erstens, die Erwerbsunterbrechungsvariable in der IABS unterscheidet nicht zwischen einer Unterbrechung aufgrund von Erziehungsurlaub und einer Unterbrechung von z.? B. Krankheit. Zweitens, der Geburtsmonat des Kindes muss vom Monat, in dem die Mutter in den Erziehungsurlaub geht, abgeleitet werden. Dies führt wahrscheinlich zu einem Messfehler in der Dauer der Erwerbsunterbrechung. Dieser Datenreport untersucht beide Probleme basierend auf einer erweiterten Version der IABS, die zusätzlich zu den Sozialversicherungsangaben der IABS direkte Informationen über das Geburtsdatum der Kinder enthält. Diese Information stammt aus den Daten der Rentenversicherung. Meine Ergebnisse für westdeutsche Frauen zeigen, dass mindestens 90% der Erwerbsunterbrechungen in der IABS Unterbrechungen aufgrund von Erziehungsurlaub sind. Außerdem wird für mindestens 70% der Mütter der Geburtsmonat des Kindes in der IABS korrekt gemessen. Für weitere 25% wird der Geburtsmonat um einen Monat unter- oder überschätzt. Mein Fazit ist, dass die neueren Scientific Usefiles der IABS, die IABS 75-01 und die IABS 75-04, eine sehr wertvolle alternative Datenquelle zum sozio-ökonomischen Panel darstellen, um Erwerbsunterbrechungen aufgrund von Erziehungsurlaub zu studieren. Allerdings muss berücksichtigt werden, dass in der IABS nur Mütter im Erziehungsurlaub, und nicht generell die Geburt eines Kindes, beobachtet wird.\" Forschungsmethode: empirisch; Grundlagenforschung. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1987 bis 1994. (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku). \"The data set that researchers have used most often to study career interruptions due to childbirth in the German context is the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). An alternative data source is the much larger IAB Employment Sample (IABS). Although this data set does not include direct information on childbirth, mothers on maternity leave can potentially be identified. There are, however, two problems. First, the leave variable in the IABS does not distinguish between maternity leave and other leave taking, such as sick leave. Second, the child's birth month has to be inferred from the month in which the mother goes on maternity leave, which is likely to lead to measurement error in the time that the mother spends at home after childbirth. This paper investigates both problems, using an extended version of the IABS that supplements the social security records with direct information on childbirth from the German Pension Register. I find that for Western West German citizens, at least 90% of leave spells are due to maternity leave. The child's birth month is correctly estimated for at least 70%, and over- or underestimated by one month for about 25% of mothers. I conclude that the most recent scientific use files of the IABS, the IABS 75-01 and IABS 75-04, provide a very valuable alternative data source to the GSOEP to study career interruptions due to childbirth, as long as the focus is on women who are attached to the labour market.\" Forschungsmethode: empirisch; Grundlagenforschung. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1987 bis 1994. (author's abstract, IAB-Doku).

Themes of the paper are differences in unemployment rates between East and West Germany and the spatial differentiation in the East. 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall there is still a strong division between the economies and labour markets of Eastern and Western Germany. In the last few years, however, unemployment has been reduced especially in the East. Within Eastern Germany a strong variation of labour market situations is visible, which has been relatively stable in time. In the paper special approaches of regional economics are used to understand the situation. In addition, a spatial econometrics framework is applied.

\"In this paper we study the sources of wage growth. We identify the contribution to such growth of general, sector specific and firm specific human capital. Our results are interpretable within the context of a model where the returns to human capital may be heterogeneous and where firms may offer different combinations of entry level wages and firm specific human capital development. We allow for the possibility that wages are match specific and that workers move jobs as a result of identifying a better match. To estimate the average returns to experience, sector tenure and firm specific tenure within this context, we develop an identification strategy which relies on the use of firm closures. Our data source is a new and unique administrative data-set for Germany that includes complete work histories as well as individual characteristics. We find positive returns to experience and firm tenure for skilled workers. The returns to experience for unskilled workers are small and insignificant after 2 years of experience. Their returns to sector tenure are also zero. However, their returns to firm tenure are substantial.\" Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: empirisch-quantitativ; empirisch; Längsschnitt; Sekundäranalyse. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1975 bis 1995. (author's abstract, IAB-Doku).

\"Die Zahl der professionell zu versorgenden Pflegefälle wird sich bis zum Jahr 2050 voraussichtlich um etwa 170 Prozent erhöhen. Diesem Anstieg der Pflegebedürftigen steht ein zu erwartender Rückgang der Erwerbspersonen um etwa 40 Prozent gegenüber. Unter Zugrundelegung eines Zeitreihenmodells werden die für die Zahl der Altenpflegekräfte relevanten Angebots- und Nachfragefaktoren ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse des Zeitreihenansatzes machen jedoch deutlich, dass sich die Anzahl der professionellen Altenpflegekräfte - unter Berücksichtigung aller zu erwartenden Veränderungen - nur um etwa 30 Prozent bis zum Jahr 2050 steigern lässt. Um Versorgungsengpässe im Pflegebereich dennoch abzuwenden, gilt es, mit Hilfe gezielter Maßnahmen die Zahl der professionellen Altenpflegekräfte weiter zu erhöhen. Vor diesem Hintergrund zeigt der vorliegende Beitrag auf, in welchem Ausmaß sich die Zahl der Altenpflegekräfte durch eine Steigerung der durchschnittlichen Berufsverweildauer erhöhen lässt.\" Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: Längsschnitt; prognostisch; empirisch. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1975 bis 2050. (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku). \"As a result of an expected increase of 170 per cent in the number of persons who will need formal long-term care and as a result of an anticipated decrease in the labour supply of 40 per cent by 2050, one challenge for the future nursing labour market will be to find enough professional nursing staff. Building on this insight, this paper specifies different supply and demand factors that influence the existence and extent of future nurse shortages. Based on the relationship between these factors, a supply and a demand function for nursing staff will be calculated separately in a time-series framework. Separating the effects of an increase in demand of formal long-term care from those associate with the decline in the labour supply, the model shows an increase in the number of nurses working in the long-term care sector of 30 per cent by 2050. This will lead to an acute shortage of nurses. In this context, special attention should be given to prolonging the job duration of nurses.\" Die Untersuchung enthält quantitative Daten. Forschungsmethode: Längsschnitt; prognostisch; empirisch. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 1975 bis 2050. (author's abstract, IAB-Doku).

\"Das Forschungsdatenzentrum (FDZ) der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) im Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) wurde 2004 gegründet. Seine Hauptaufgabe besteht darin, externen Forschern den Zugriff auf die Mikrodaten der BA und des IAB unter Anwendung von standardisierten und transparenten Regeln zu ermöglichen. Fünf Jahre nach seiner Gründung wird das FDZ als Produzent von innovativen Datenprodukten wahrgenommen und hat sich zu einem erkennbaren Bestandteil der Forschungslandschaft entwickelt. Das FDZ ist außerdem zunehmend mit anderen Datenproduzenten vernetzt und treibt die weitere Internationalisierung von Datenprodukten und Datenzugängen voran.\" Forschungsmethode: deskriptive Studie. (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku). \"The Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the German Federal Employment Agency (BA) in the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) was founded in 2004 and is intended mainly to facilitate access to BA and IAB microdata for non-commercial empirical research using standardized and transparent access rules. Five years after its foundation the FDZ is acknowledged as a producer of innovative data products and has become a visible element of the research community. Furthermore, linkages to other data producers and the internationalization of data products and data access have been promoted by the FDZ.\" Forschungsmethode: deskriptive Studie. (author's abstract, IAB-Doku).